Search results for "SCENA"

Behind the Scenes of Scenario-Based Training: Understanding Scenario Design and Requirements in High-Risk and Uncertain Environments

2017

Simulation exercises as a training tool for enhancing preparedness for emergency response are widely adopted in disaster management. This paper addresses current scenario design processes, proposes an alternative approach for simulation exercises and introduces a conceptual design of an adaptive scenario generator. Our work is based on a systematic literature review and observations made during TRIPLEX-2016 exercise in Farsund, Norway. The planning process and scenario selection of simulation exercises impact directly the effectiveness of intra- and interorganizational cooperation. However, collective learning goals are rarely addressed and most simulations are focused on institution-specif…

Winter long dry spells in the Mediterranean basin and associated atmospheric conditions : contemporary and future variability (1957-2100)

2017

In the context of climate change, as reflected by a dryer Mediterraneanbasin, this thesis focused on the study of the contemporary and future variability(1957-2100) of the wintertime (September to April) very long dryspells events (called VLDSe) in the Mediterranean basin. An original methodologywas developed in this thesis in order to define VLDSe as singularclimatic events, characterized by location, duration and spatial extent criteria.76 VLDSe were detected in the Mediterranean basin on the contemporaryperiod (1957-2013). These events are divided into 4 main geographicalpatterns: North-East, West, Scattered Localized and South-East. North-East and West configurations are associated with…

Rings for privacy: An architecture for privacy-preserving user profiling

2014

Vulnerability Analysis of Interdependent Critical Infrastructures upon a Cyber-attack

2019

HR scenario game : Learning human resource management in a virtual environment

2021

This paper introduces a computer-based online scenario game that was developed to enhance the learning of human resource management (HRM) in an undergraduate course at a business school in Finland. What makes this game unique is that students played an important and active role in developing the game in collaboration with lecturers. Our findings show that the game enhances learning, interaction, and collaboration among students. We discuss how computer-based games and their development in collaboration with students can be used as a means for learning and improving working-life skills in higher education.

Political risks: the “red shift” in debt sustainability analysis

2020

Political stability and economic policy uncertainty can be key determinants of sovereign debt dynamics, and we show how they can be incorporated in debt sustainability analysis. We distinguish between short-term ambiguity and long-term uncertainty about political risk factors, and using a combination of narrative scenarios and calibrated probabilistic scenarios we obtain a comprehensive heatmap of high-risk debt dynamics. We use Italy as an interesting case study and demonstrate a “red shift” in the assessment of vulnerabilities when accounting for political risks. Ignoring these risks can lead to excessive optimism and wrong decisions.

Life cycle energy and CO2 emissions analysis of food packaging: an insight into the methodology from an Italian perspective

2016

Packaging is strictly connected to environmental issues as it is a product characterised by high material consumption rate; it is often transported over long distances and has a short life. Providing environmental analysis is, therefore, urgent to identify energy and resources efficient solutions. The paper, taking advantage of a real case study, presents a life cycle-based comparative analysis among three different food packaging systems. The paper compares the life cycle of tin steel, polypropylene and glass-based packaging of an Italian preserves producer. The analysis leads to the conclusion that, for the baseline scenario, polypropylene packaging represents the greenest solution, where…

Lope de Vega y la historia en los escenarios de los siglos XX y XXI

2013

This paper aims to examine, on the one hand, the presence of Lope’s historical dramas on contemporary stage to confirm their continuity; and, on the other, to reflect on the distinctive features of the staging of these dramas from a specific corpus of performances dating from the last decades. The goal is to observe the current relevance of these dramas and performances, to study under what ethical and aesthetic assumptions characters are now represented and the historical episodes that Lope used in the creation of his fictions, as well as to analyze the possible connections between History, Lope and the audience of the 21st century.

Simulating term structure of interest rates with arbitrary marginals

2011

Decision models under uncertainty rely their analysis on scenarios of the economic factors. A key economic factor is the term structure of interest rates (yields). Simulation models of the yield curve usually assume that the conjugate distribution of the interest rates is lognormal. Dynamic models, like vector auto-regression, implicitly postulate that the logarithm of the interest rates is normally distributed. Statistical analyses have, however, shown that stationary transformations (yield changes) of the interest rates are substantially leptokurtic, thus posing serious doubts on the reliability of the available models. We propose in this paper a VARTA model (Biller and Nelson, 2003) to s…

Multi-scenario multi-objective robust optimization under deep uncertainty: A posteriori approach

2021

This paper proposes a novel optimization approach for multi-scenario multi-objective robust decision making, as well as an alternative way for scenario discovery and identifying vulnerable scenarios even before any solution generation. To demonstrate and test the novel approach, we use the classic shallow lake problem. We compare the results obtained with the novel approach to those obtained with previously used approaches. We show that the novel approach guarantees the feasibility and robust efficiency of the produced solutions under all selected scenarios, while decreasing computation cost, addresses the scenario-dependency issues, and enables the decision-makers to explore the trade-off …