Search results for "epidemic model"

showing 10 items of 20 documents

A note on stochastic model of malaria with periodic coefficients

2009

Settore MAT/05 - Analisi Matematicaepidemic model stochastic equation
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Modello stocastico di epidemia

2007

Settore MAT/05 - Analisi Matematicaepidemic model stochastic equations
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Multi-Phase epidemic model by a Markov chain

2008

Abstract In this paper we propose a continuous-time Markov chain to describe the spread of an infective and non-mortal disease into a community numerically limited and subjected to an external infection. We make a numerical simulation that shows tendencies for recurring epidemic outbreaks and for fade-out or extinction of the infection.

Statistics and ProbabilityExtinctionMarkov chainMulti phaseComputer scienceEpidemic models Markov chain Numerical simulationStatistical physicsCondensed Matter PhysicsEpidemic model
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Stability of a stochastic SIR system

2005

Abstract We propose a stochastic SIR model with or without distributed time delay and we study the stability of disease-free equilibrium. The numerical simulation of the stochastic SIR model shows that the introduction of noise modifies the threshold of system for an epidemic to occur and the threshold stochastic value is found.

Statistics and ProbabilityLyapunov functionStochastic stabilityComputer simulationStochastic processComputer Science::Social and Information NetworksCondensed Matter PhysicsStability (probability)Noise (electronics)SIR model Lyapunov function Stochastic process Stochastic stabilitysymbols.namesakeControl theorysymbolsQuantitative Biology::Populations and EvolutionApplied mathematicsEpidemic modelMathematicsPhysica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications
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Solving a model for the evolution of smoking habit in Spain with homotopy analysis method

2013

We obtain an approximated analytical solution for a dynamic model for the prevalence of the smoking habit in a constant population but with equal and different from zero birth and death rates. This model has been successfully used to explain the evolution of the smoking habit in Spain. By means of the Homotopy Analysis Method, we obtain an analytic expression in powers of time t which reproduces the correct solution for a certain range of time. To enlarge the domain of convergence we have applied the so-called optimal convergence-control parameter technique and the homotopy-Padé technique. We present and discuss graphical results for our solutions. ©

education.field_of_studyApplied MathematicsPopulationMathematical analysisGeneral EngineeringGeneral MedicineDynamic modelBirth–death processDomain (mathematical analysis)Homotopy-Padé techniqueSmoking modelComputational MathematicsRange (mathematics)Homotopy analysis methodEpidemic modelConvergence (routing)educationEpidemic modelConstant (mathematics)MATEMATICA APLICADAGeneral Economics Econometrics and FinanceAnalysisHomotopy analysis methodMathematics
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Multi-phase epidemic model and its numerical simulation

2008

epidemic model Markov chainSettore MAT/05 - Analisi Matematica
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A note on the existence of an invariant measure for a stochastic model with periodic coefficients

2012

We consider a stochastic model of malaria which concern the infected population and the vector population and whose coefficients are periodic functions. Under a suitable condition the existence of an invariant measure is proved.

epidemic model invariant measureSettore MAT/05 - Analisi Matematica
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SIRV epidemic model with stochastic perturbation

2014

We propose a stochastic disease model where vaccination is included and such that the immunity is permanent. The existence, uniqueness and positivity of the solution and the stability of the disease free-equilibrium are studied

epidemic modelSettore MAT/05 - Analisi Matematicap-th momentstochastic process.
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How to remove the testing bias in CoV-2 statistics

2020

BACKGROUNDPublic health measures and private behaviour are based on reported numbers of SARS-CoV-2 infections. Some argue that testing influences the confirmed number of infections.OBJECTIVES/METHODSDo time series on reported infections and the number of tests allow one to draw conclusions about actual infection numbers? A SIR model is presented where the true numbers of susceptible, infectious and removed individuals are unobserved. Testing is also modelled.RESULTSOfficial confirmed infection numbers are likely to be biased and cannot be compared over time. The bias occurs because of different reasons for testing (e.g. by symptoms, representative or testing travellers). The paper illustrat…

medicine.medical_specialty2019-20 coronavirus outbreakIndex (economics)Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)business.industryPublic healthSevere acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)StatisticsMedicinebusinessEpidemic model
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On a stochastic SIR model

2007

We consider a stochastic SIR system and we prove the existence, uniqueness and positivity of solution. Moreover the existence of an invariant measure under a suitable condition on the coefficients is studied.

stochastic equaton disease modelSettore MAT/05 - Analisi MatematicaApplied MathematicsCalculusEpidemic modelMathematical economicsMathematics
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