Search results for "forecasting"

Predicting olive flowering phenology with phenoclimatic models

2018

In plants, day length and temperature are the major climatic factors that affect the transition from a phenological phase to the next one. Non-linear models, such as growing degree hours (GDH), have been successfully used to calculate thermal time required for spring bud burst in deciduous fruit trees. In this experiment, temperature records and blooming dates of olive trees in different years and for 10 different sites in the Italian territory were recorded. Olive booming time was correlated to the amount of (GDH) accumulated from the date of bud rest onset, calculated as the day when the maximum negative chilling units accumulation was reached (UTAH Model), to full bloom. The GDH model wa…

Erosion of Lizard Diversity by Climate Change and Altered Thermal Niches

2010

It is predicted that climate change will cause species extinctions and distributional shifts in coming decades, but data to validate these predictions are relatively scarce. Here, we compare recent and historical surveys for 48 Mexican lizard species at 200 sites. Since 1975, 12% of local populations have gone extinct. We verified physiological models of extinction risk with observed local extinctions and extended projections worldwide. Since 1975, we estimate that 4% of local populations have gone extinct worldwide, but by 2080 local extinctions are projected to reach 39% worldwide, and species extinctions may reach 20%. Global extinction projections were validated with local extinctions o…

Uncovering the knowledge flows and intellectual structures of research in Technological Forecasting and Social Change: A journey through history

2020

Abstract Technological Forecasting and Social Change (TF&SC) celebrates its fiftieth anniversary this year. The anniversary represents an appropriate time for an introspective analysis of the journal's history and impact. This study presents a bibliometric analysis of TF&SC in terms of how often TF&SC is cited by other journals (citation outflow), how often other journals are cited by TF&SC (citation inflow), citations by Web of Science and SCImago disciplinary categories, most-cited articles in TF&SC, co-citation of journals, and co-occurrence of author keywords. Analysis is conducted by using the Web of Science (WOS) database and Visualization of Similarities (VOS) viewer software. The in…

Comparing two applicative criteria of the soil erosion physical model concept

2017

The physical model represented by a replicated plot has been suggested to be the best possible, unbiased, real world model to predict plot soil erosion. The aim of this investigation was to compare the original applicative criterion of the physical model concept proposed by Nearing with that later suggested by Bagarello et al. The comparison was performed by using three empirical soil erosion models (the Universal Soil Loss Equation [USLE], a modified USLE [USLE-MM], and the Central and Southern Italy [CSI] model) and plot soil loss data collected at the experimental station of Sparacia, in Sicily (southern Italy). The investigation showed that (i) the new criterion was generally more restr…

Predictive pumping based on sensor data and weather forecast

2019

In energy production, peat extraction has a significant role in Finland. However, protection of nature has become more and more important globally. How do we solve this conflict of interests respecting both views? In peat production, one important phase is to drain peat bog so that peat production becomes available. This means that we have control over how we can lead water away from peat bog to nature without water contamination with solid and other harmful substances. In this paper we describe a novel method how fouling of water bodies from peat bog can be controlled more efficiently by using weather forecast to predict rainfall and thus, minimize the effluents to nature. peerReviewed

Does telomere length predict decline in physical functioning in older twin sisters during an 11-year follow-up?

2016

Background: Leucocyte telomere length (LTL) is known to be associated with mortality, but its association with age-related decline in physical functioning and the development of disability is less clear. This study examined the associations between LTL and physical functioning, and investigated whether LTL predicts level of physical functioning over an 11- year follow-up. Methods: Older mono- (MZ) and dizygotic (DZ) twin sisters (n=386) participated in the study. Relative LTL was measured by qPCR at baseline. Physical functioning was measured by 6-min walking distance and level of physical activity (PA). Walking distance was measured at baseline and at 3-year follow-up. PA was assessed by q…

Harnessing Tumor Mutations for Truly Individualized Cancer Vaccines

2019

T cells are key effectors of anticancer immunity. They are capable of distinguishing tumor cells from normal ones by recognizing major histocompatibility complex–bound cancer-specific peptides. Accumulating evidence suggests that peptides associated with T cell–mediated tumor rejection arise predominantly from somatically mutated proteins and are unique to every patient's tumor. Knowledge of an individual's cancer mutanome (the entirety of cancer mutations) allows harnessing this enormous tumor cell–specific repertoire of highly immunogenic antigens for individualized cancer vaccines. This review outlines the preclinical and clinical state of individualized cancer vaccine development and t…

Where do we go from here? Membrane protein research beyond the structure-function horizon.

2018

Coupling News Sentiment with Web Browsing Data Improves Prediction of Intra-Day Price Dynamics

2015

The new digital revolution of big data is deeply changing our capability of understanding society and forecasting the outcome of many social and economic systems. Unfortunately, information can be very heterogeneous in the importance, relevance, and surprise it conveys, affecting severely the predictive power of semantic and statistical methods. Here we show that the aggregation of web users' behavior can be elicited to overcome this problem in a hard to predict complex system, namely the financial market. Specifically, our in-sample analysis shows that the combined use of sentiment analysis of news and browsing activity of users of Yahoo! Finance greatly helps forecasting intra-day and dai…

Towards development of a statistical framework to evaluate myotonic dystrophy type 1 mRNA biomarkers in the context of a clinical trial

2020

AbstractMyotonic dystrophy type 1 (DM1) is a rare genetic disorder, characterised by muscular dystrophy, myotonia, and other symptoms. DM1 is caused by the expansion of a CTG repeat in the 3’-untranslated region of DMPK. Longer CTG expansions are associated with greater symptom severity and earlier age at onset. The primary mechanism of pathogenesis is thought to be mediated by a gain of function of the CUG-containing RNA, that leads to trans-dysregulation of RNA metabolism of many other genes. Specifically, the alternative splicing (AS) and alternative polyadenylation (APA) of many genes is known to be disrupted. In the context of clinical trials of emerging DM1 treatments, it is important…