Search results for "forecasts"
showing 8 items of 18 documents
Combining a data-driven approach with seasonal forecast data to predict reservoir water volume in the Mediterranean area
2023
Prolonged droughts and water scarcity have become more frequent in recent years, exacerbating the problem of the artificial reservoirs management in the Mediterranean area. This study proposes a methodology which combines a Nonlinear AutoRegressive network with eXogenous input (NARX) data-driven model with Seasonal Forecasts (SFs) data, with the aim to predict the water volume stored in reservoirs at a mid-term scale, as requested by the local authority. The methodology is applied to four Sicilian reservoirs that experienced water scarcity in the recent past. SFs produced at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting are used to force the NARX models. Also, the reservoirs are …
Early Warning Systems for Food Security in West Africa: Evolution, Achievements and Challenges
2010
In West Africa, early warning systems (EWSs) for food security have been widely recognized to have contributed, in the last 20 years, to an improved ability to deal with famine emergencies. Nevertheless, despite the advancements in understanding of the environmental and socio-economic dynamics and despite the improved technologies, tackling food security remains a difficult task for decision makers as demonstrated by local food crises in many countries of the region. African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis, while improving the understanding of the monsoon system, allowed us to better orient research challenges to provide EWS with improved products, effectively meeting the needs of end-us…
Encuestas a pie de urna en España. ¿Error muestral o sesgo de no respuesta?
2016
Countless examples of misleading forecasts on behalf of both pre-election and exit polls can be found all over the world. Non-representative samples due to differential nonresponse have been claimed as being the main reason for inaccurate exit-poll projections. In real inference problems, it is seldom possible to compare estimates and true values. Electoral forecasts are an exception. Comparisons between estimates and final outcomes can be carried out once votes have been tallied. In this paper, we examine the raw data collected in seven exit polls conducted in Spain and test the likelihood that the data collected in each sampled voting location can be considered as a random sample of actua…
Coupling of Action-Perception Brain Networks during Musical Pulse Processing: Evidence from Region-of-Interest-Based Independent Component Analysis
2017
Our sense of rhythm relies on orchestrated activity of several cerebral and cerebellar structures. Although functional connectivity studies have advanced our understanding of rhythm perception, this phenomenon has not been sufficiently studied as a function of musical training and beyond the General Linear Model (GLM) approach. Here, we studied pulse clarity processing during naturalistic music listening using a data-driven approach (independent component analysis; ICA). Participants’ (18 musicians and 18 controls) functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) responses were acquired while listening to music. A targeted region of interest (ROI) related to pulse clarity processing was defined…
L'influence des facteurs institutionnels sur la politique d'information financière des entreprises. Une analyse à la lumière du cas français
2009
International audience; L'influence des facteurs institutionnels sur la politique d'information financière des entreprises. Une analyse à la lumière du cas français.
THE EVOLUTION OF ADVERTISING MARKET WHERE IS ADVERTISING NOW, AND WHERE IS IT GOING?
2010
Advertising is more complicated than it used to be. In the innocent days of the 70’s and 80’s you could easily reach large audiences, both locally and nationally, through traditional advertising. Those days are long gone and an examination of the advertising playing field looks like a big pile of incomprehensible choice. In Romania, advertising has mushroomed over the past 10 years. With the emergence of large international companies and the budgets allocated to them in advertising, advertisers have appeared, only present in major cities of Romania. After 2000, there were several media institutions with very large budget and big plans for the advertising market in Romania. Are some media gr…
Earnings management to exceed thresholds in continental and Anglo-Saxon accounting models: The British and French cases
2017
International audience; The purpose of this paper is to compare the extent to which French and British firms manage their earnings in order to avoid losses, decreases in earnings and earnings below the forecasts of analysts. Further, this study aims to investigate the factors that potentially influence earnings management to exceed thresholds with reference to the Anglo-Saxon and continental accounting models. Britain and France, correspondingly, belong to those different socio-economic environments. Based on a panel data of 1771 French and 2057 British firm-year observations during the period 2002–2012, we show that all firms considered manage earnings to beat zero and last year’s earnings…