Search results for "jel:D5"
showing 10 items of 19 documents
Bicausative matrices to measure structural change: Are they a good tool?
1999
The causative-matrix method to analyze temporal change assumes that a matrix transforms one Markovian transition matrix into another by a left multiplication of the first matrix; the method is demand-driven when applied to input-output economics. An extension is presented without assuming the demand-driven or supply-driven hypothesis. Starting from two flow matrices X and Y, two diagonal matrices are searched, one premultiplying and the second postmultiplying X, to obtain a result the closer as possible to Y by least squares. The paper proves that the method is deceptive because the diagonal matrices are unidentified and the interpretation of results is unclear. Keywords : Input-Output ; Ch…
About the criteria of output coincidence for forecasts to determine the orientation of the economy (application for France, 1980-1997)
2000
This note indicates that the method of output coincidence for forecasts used to determine if sectors are demand-driven or supply-driven in an input-output framework mixes two effects, the structural effect (choosing between demand and supply driven models) and the effect of an exogenous factor (final demand or added-value). The note recalls that another method is possible, the comparison of the stability of technical and allocation coefficients, generalized by the biproportional filter: if for a sector, after biproportional filtering, column coefficients are more stable than row coefficients, then this sector is declared as not supply-driven (but one cannot decide that it is demand-driven a…
BARGAINING WITH COMMITMENT UNDER AN UNCERTAIN DEADLINE
2006
We consider an infinite horizon bargaining game in which a deadline can arise with positive probability and where players possess an endogenous commitment device. We show that for any truncation of the game, the equilibrium agreement can only take place if the deadline arises within this finite horizon. Since the deadline is an uncertain event, the equilibrium exhibits agreements which are delayed with positive probability.
The Economic Impact of the South-North Water Transfer Project in China: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis
2006
Water resources are unevenly spread in China. Especially the basins of the Yellow, Hui and Hai rivers in the North are rather dry. To increase the supply of water in these basins, the South-to-North Water Transfer project (SNWT) was launched. Using a computable general equilibrium model this study estimates the impact of the project on the economy of China and the rest of the world. We contrast three alternative groups of scenarios. All are directly concerned with the South-to-North water transfer project to increase water supply. In the first group of scenarios additional supply implies productivity gains. We call it the “non-market” solution. The second group of scenarios is called “marke…
The Economic Impact of Restricted Water Supply: a Computable General Equilibrium Analysis
2007
Water problems are typically studied at the level of the river catchment. About 70% of all water is used for agriculture, and agricultural products are traded internationally. A full understanding of water use is impossible without understanding the international market for food and related products, such as textiles. The water embedded in commodities is called virtual water. Based on a general equilibrium model, we offer a method for investigating the role of water resources and water scarcity in the context of international trade. We run five alternative scenarios, analyzing the effects of water scarcity due to reduced availability of groundwater. This can be a consequence of physical con…
A general equilibrium analysis of climate change impacts on tourism
2006
This paper studies the economic implications of climate-change-induced variations in tourism demand, using a world CGE model. The model is first re-calibrated at some future years, obtaining hypothetical benchmark equilibria, which are subsequently perturbed by shocks, simulating the effects of climate change. We portray the impact of climate change on tourism by means of two sets of shocks, occurring simultaneously. The first set of shocks translate predicted variations in tourist flows into changes of consumption preferences for domestically produced goods. The second set reallocate income across world regions, simulating the effect of higher or lower tourists' expenditure. Our analysis h…
The Impact of Trade Liberalisation on Water Use: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis
2008
Water is scarce in many countries. One instrument to improve the allocation of a scarce resource is (efficient) pricing or taxation. However, water is implicitly traded on international markets, particularly through food and textiles, so that impacts of water taxes cannot be studied in isolation, but require an analysis of international trade implications. We include water as a production factor in a multi-region, multi-sector computable general equilibrium model (GTAP), to assess a series of water tax policies. We find that water taxes reduce water use, and lead to shifts in production, consumption, and international trade patterns. Countries that do not levy water taxes are nonetheless af…
Unawareness and bankruptcy: A general equilibrium model
1998
International audience; We present a consistent pure-exchange general equilibrium model where agents may not be able to foresee all possible future contingencies. In this context, even with nominal assets and complete asset markets, an equilibrium may not exist without appropriate assumptions. Specific examples are provided. An existence result is proved under the main assumption that there are sufficiently many states that all the agents foresee. An intrinsic feature of the model is bankruptcy, which agents may involuntarily experience in the unforeseen states.
On the Fallacy of Forward Linkages: A Note in the Light of Recent Results
2009
Following on from de Mesnard’s (2009) radical criticism of the Ghosh supply-driven model, this paper draws the dramatic consequences for the widespread use of forward linkages in input-output analysis applied to regional science: the practice must be abandoned. The arguments are based on three points: (i) it is impossible simultaneously to choose the Leontief model for the backward effects and the Ghosh model for the forward effects; (ii) it is impossible simultaneously to consider a production function of complementary inputs (Leontief) and a production function of perfectly substitutable inputs (Ghosh); and most importantly (iii) price effects and output effects remain inextricably mixed …
THE SHAPLEY-SOLIDARITY VALUE FOR GAMES WITH A COALITION STRUCTURE
2013
A value for games with a coalition structure is introduced, where the rules guiding cooperation among the members of the same coalition are different from the interaction rules among coalitions. In particular, players inside a coalition exhibit a greater degree of solidarity than they are willing to use with players outside their coalition. The Shapley value is therefore used to compute the aggregate payoffs for the coalitions, and the solidarity value to obtain the payoffs for the players inside each coalition.