Search results for "jel:F3"
showing 10 items of 36 documents
Volatility transmission patterns and terrorist attacks
2009
The objective of this study is to analyze volatility transmission between the US and Eurozone stock markets considering the effects of the September 11, March 11 and July 7 financial crises. In order to do this, we use a multivariate GARCH model and take into account the asymmetric volatility phenomenon, the non-synchronous trading problem and the crises themselves. Moreover, a graphical analysis of the Asymmetric Volatility Impulse-Response Functions (AVIRF) is introduced, which takes into consideration the crisis effect. Results suggest that there is bidirectional and asymmetric volatility transmission and show the different impact that terrorist attacks had on both markets. El objetivo d…
The expectations hypothesis of the term structure in the Euro area
2008
This paper tries to ascertain whether the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates was fulfilled for the EMU countries in the period previous to its launching. To this end, we employ individual country data for the Euro area. Using pooled and panel cointegration techniques we conclude that there is an equilibrium relationship linking the long and the short-run interest rates for both the individual countries and the panel as a whole. Due to the homogeneity found in the short-long term interest rates relationship across countries, the fears raised about the use of area-wide aggregates by the ECB if not discarded need to be, at least, qualified
German Bank Lending During Emerging Market Crises: A Bank Level Analysis
2007
This paper studies German bank lending during the Asian and Russian crises, using a bank level data set, which has been compiled from credit data at the Deutsche Bundesbank. Our aim is to gain more insight into the pattern of German bank lending during financial crises in emerging markets. We find that German banks reacted to the Asian crisis mainly by reallocating their portfolios among emerging markets. This behaviour is consistent with active portfolio management and does not necessarily indicate a spontaneous reaction to the Asian crisis. By contrast, the banks' behaviour during the Russian crisis is characterised by a general withdrawal from emerging markets. The use of micro data allo…
FISCALITY – RELEVANT FACTOR INFLUENCING THE BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT
2013
Main tool for macroeconomic management - fiscal policy consists in establishing the levels of taxation and spending in order to influence macroeconomic performance. Fiscal policy, promoted by the government authorities of any contemporary state, is directed usually to achieving microeconomic and macroeconomic goals deriving from the roles the state must fulfill in the economy, respectively the allocative role, distributive, regulatory and the stabilizer role. Governmental authorities, through the production and supply of public goods that are financed at the expense of taxes or duties, or on the public debt, affect both individuals’ utility functions and production functions of economic age…
Holes in the Dike: the global savings glut, U.S. house prices and the long shadow of banking deregulation
2015
We explore empirically how capital inflows into the US and financial deregulation within the United States interacted in driving the run-up (and subsequent decline) in US housing prices over the period 1990-2010. To obtain an ex ante measure of financial liberalization, we focus on the history of interstate-banking deregulation during the 1980s, i.e. prior to the large net capital inflows into the US from China and other emerging economies. Our results suggest a long shadow of deregulation: in states that opened their banking markets to out-of-state banks earlier, house prices were more sensitive to capital inflows. We provide evidence that global imbalances were a major positive funding sh…
German bank lending to industrial and non-industrial countries: driven by fundamentals or different treatment?
2005
This paper shows that the substantial disparity in German bank lending towards industrial (IC) and non-industrial (Non-IC) countries is largely explained by differences in countries' endowments and only to a minor extent by German banks' different treatment of these country groups. This is demonstrated by applying a decomposition technique to an augmented gravity model that is estimated for German foreign lending using a new micro panel data-set on individual claims from the Deutsche Bundesbank covering the period from 1996 to 2002.
Interest rate co-movements, global factors and the long end of the term spread
2012
The disconnect between rising short and low long interest rates has been a distinctive feature of the 2000s. Both research and policy circles have argued that international forces, such as global monetary policy (e.g. Rogoff, 2006); international business cycles (e.g. Borio and Filardo, 2007); or a global savings glut (e.g Bernanke, 2005) may be responsible. In this paper, we employ recent advances in panel data econometrics to document the disconnect and link it explicitly to the existence of a global latent factor that dominates the long end of the term spread for the recent period; the saving glut story emerges as the most likely contender for the global factor.
The Role of the Exchange Rate Regime in the Process of Real and Nominal Convergence
2013
During the last decade, economists have intensively searched for evidence on the importance of the Balassa-Samuelson (B-S) hypothesis in explaining nominal convergence. One general result is that B-S can at best explain only part of the excess inflation observed in the European catching-up countries, which suggests that other factors may be at play. In these and related studies, however, the potential role of the exchange rate regime in affecting price convergence in Europe has been overlooked. In this respect, we claim that the choice of the exchange rate regime has decisively affected the path of nominal convergence. To show this, we first model the (endogenous) choice of the exchange rat…
Domestic vs. International correlations of interest rate maturities
2010
The association between long and short interest rates is traditionally envisaged from a purely domestic perspective, where it is believed an empirical regularity. Hence, the weakening of this relationship in the first half of the 2000s has represented a conundrum, calling for a reassessment of the term structure and the conduct of monetary policy. Some commentators have called for investigations into the international dimension of this puzzle. Hence, in this paper we employ recent advances in panel data econometrics to investigate the co-movement of interest rate maturities both at the domestic and international levels for a sample of industrial countries. Specifically, we use the Ng (2006)…
Disaggregate Real Exchange Rate Behaviour
2007
In this paper, we re-examine the “PPP Puzzle” using sectoral disaggregated data. Specifically, we first analyse the mean reversion speeds of real exchange rates for a number of different sectors in eleven industrial economies and then focus on relating these rates to variables identified in the literature as key determinants of CPI-based real exchange rates, namely: the trade balance, productivity and the mark up. In particular, we seek to understand to what extent the relationships existing at the aggregate level are borne out at the disaggregate level. We believe that this analysis can help shed light on the PPP puzzle.