Search results for "model selection"

Pure donation or hybrid donation crowdfunding

2019

PurposeDespite the growing research exploring the possibility and feasibility of financing socially oriented projects through crowdfunding, relatively little research examines which crowdfunding model is better to serve such purpose. The purpose of this paper is to offer novel insights to mitigate this research gap.Design/methodology/approachA unique data set collected from the largest Chinese crowdfunding platform is used to test the hypotheses. To solve the perceived self-selection problem, the propensity score matching method is adopted in this paper. Based on this approach, the results of similar prosocial campaigns in two different models (pure donation and hybrid donation) are compare…

Robust model calibration using determinist and stochastic performance metrics

2016

International audience; The aeronautics industry has benefited from the use of numerical models to supplement or replace the costly design-build-test paradigm. These models are often calibrated using experimental data to obtain optimal fidelity-to-data but compensating effects between calibration parameters can complicate the model selection process due to the non-uniqueness of the solution. One way to reduce this ambiguity is to include a robustness requirement to the selection criteria. In this study, the info-gap decision theory is used to represent the lack of knowledge resulting from compensating effects and a robustness analysis is performed to investigate the impact of uncertainty on…

Bayesian model averaging and weighted-average least squares: Equivariance, stability, and numerical issues

2011

In this article, we describe the estimation of linear regression models with uncertainty about the choice of the explanatory variables. We introduce the Stata commands bma and wals, which implement, respectively, the exact Bayesian model-averaging estimator and the weighted-average least-squares estimator developed by Magnus, Powell, and Prüfer (2010, Journal of Econometrics 154: 139–153). Unlike standard pretest estimators that are based on some preliminary diagnostic test, these model-averaging estimators provide a coherent way of making inference on the regression parameters of interest by taking into account the uncertainty due to both the estimation and the model selection steps. Spec…

Bayesian Model Averaging and Weighted Average Least Squares: Equivariance, Stability, and Numerical Issues

2011

This article is concerned with the estimation of linear regression models with uncertainty about the choice of the explanatory variables. We introduce the Stata commands bma and wals which implement, respectively, the exact Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) estimator and the Weighted Average Least Squares (WALS) estimator developed by Magnus et al. (2010). Unlike standard pretest estimators which are based on some preliminary diagnostic test, these model averaging estimators provide a coherent way of making inference on the regression parameters of interest by taking into account the uncertainty due to both the estimation and the model selection steps. Special emphasis is given to a number pra…

2015

We present a method to discover discriminative brain metabolism patterns in [18F] fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (PET) scans, facilitating the clinical diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease. In the work, the term "pattern" stands for a certain brain region that characterizes a target group of patients and can be used for a classification as well as interpretation purposes. Thus, it can be understood as a so-called "region of interest (ROI)". In the literature, an ROI is often found by a given brain atlas that defines a number of brain regions, which corresponds to an anatomical approach. The present work introduces a semi-data-driven approach that is based on learning the charac…

Forecasting correlated time series with exponential smoothing models

2011

Abstract This paper presents the Bayesian analysis of a general multivariate exponential smoothing model that allows us to forecast time series jointly, subject to correlated random disturbances. The general multivariate model, which can be formulated as a seemingly unrelated regression model, includes the previously studied homogeneous multivariate Holt-Winters’ model as a special case when all of the univariate series share a common structure. MCMC simulation techniques are required in order to approach the non-analytically tractable posterior distribution of the model parameters. The predictive distribution is then estimated using Monte Carlo integration. A Bayesian model selection crite…

isotracer: An R package for the analysis of tracer addition experiments

2021

AbstractTracer addition experiments, particularly using isotopic tracers, are becoming increasingly important in a variety of studies aiming at characterizing the flows of molecules or nutrients at different levels of biological organization, from the cellular and tissue levels, to the organismal and ecosystem levels.We present an approach based on Hidden Markov Models (HMM) to estimate nutrient flow parameters across a network, and its implementation in the R package isotracer.The isotracer package is capable of handling a variety of tracer study designs, including continuous tracer drips, pulse experiments, and pulse-chase experiments. It can also take into account tracer decay when radio…

Joint constraints on galaxy bias and σ8 through the N-pdf of the galaxy number density

2015

We present a full description of the N-probability density function of the galaxy number density fluctuations. This N-pdf is given in terms, on the one hand, of the cold dark matter correlations and, on the other hand, of the galaxy bias parameter. The method relies on the assumption commonly adopted that the dark matter density fluctuations follow a local non-linear transformation of the initial energy density perturbations. The N-pdf of the galaxy number density fluctuations allows for an optimal estimation of the bias parameter (e.g., via maximum-likelihood estimation, or Bayesian inference if there exists any a priori information on the bias parameter), and of those parameters defining …

Multiscale Model Selection for High-Frequency Financial Data of a Large Tick Stock by Means of the Jensen–Shannon Metric

2014

Modeling financial time series at different time scales is still an open challenge. The choice of a suitable indicator quantifying the distance between the model and the data is therefore of fundamental importance for selecting models. In this paper, we propose a multiscale model selection method based on the Jensen–Shannon distance in order to select the model that is able to better reproduce the distribution of price changes at different time scales. Specifically, we consider the problem of modeling the ultra high frequency dynamics of an asset with a large tick-to-price ratio. We study the price process at different time scales and compute the Jensen–Shannon distance between the original…

Algorithmic paradigms for stability-based cluster validity and model selection statistical methods, with applications to microarray data analysis

2012

AbstractThe advent of high throughput technologies, in particular microarrays, for biological research has revived interest in clustering, resulting in a plethora of new clustering algorithms. However, model selection, i.e., the identification of the correct number of clusters in a dataset, has received relatively little attention. Indeed, although central for statistics, its difficulty is also well known. Fortunately, a few novel techniques for model selection, representing a sharp departure from previous ones in statistics, have been proposed and gained prominence for microarray data analysis. Among those, the stability-based methods are the most robust and best performing in terms of pre…