Search results for "models"
showing 10 items of 8211 documents
Testing hypotheses in evolutionary ecology with imperfect detection: capture-recapture structural equation modeling.
2012
8 pages; International audience; Studying evolutionary mechanisms in natural populations often requires testing multifactorial scenarios of causality involving direct and indirect relationships among individual and environmental variables. It is also essential to account for the imperfect detection of individuals to provide unbiased demographic parameter estimates. To cope with these issues, we developed a new approach combining structural equation models with capture-recapture models (CR-SEM) that allows the investigation of competing hypotheses about individual and environmental variability observed in demographic parameters. We employ Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling in a Bayesian frame…
A recipe for postfledging survival in great tits Parus major: be large and be early (but not too much)
2016
Survival of juveniles during the postfledging period can be markedly low, which may have major consequences on avian population dynamics. Knowing which factors operating during the nesting phase affect postfledging survival is crucial to understand avian breeding strategies. We aimed to obtain a robust set of predictors of postfledging local survival using the great tit (Parus major) as a model species. We used mark–recapture models to analyze the effect of hatching date, temperatures experienced during the nestling period, fledging size and body mass on first-year postfledging survival probability of great tit juveniles. We used data from 5192 nestlings of first clutches ringed between 199…
The dual role of rivers in facilitating or hindering movements of the false heath fritillary butterfly
2015
Background Species movement responses to landscape structures have been studied using a variety of methods, but movement research is still in need of simple methods that help predicting and comparing movements across structurally different landscapes. We demonstrate how habitat-specific movement models can be used to disentangle causes of differentiated movement patterns in structurally different landscapes and to predict movement patterns in altered and artificial landscapes. In our case study, we studied the role of riparian landscapes to the persistence of the endangered false heath fritillary butterfly (Melitaea diamina) in its newly discovered coastal distribution region in Finland. We…
Modeling Environmental Influences in the Psyllaephagus bliteus (Hymenoptera: Encyrtidae)-Glycaspis brimblecombei (Hemiptera: Aphalaridae) Parasitoid-…
2017
Glycaspis brimblecombei Moore (Hemiptera: Aphalaridae) is an invasive psyllid introduced into the Mediterranean area, where it affects several species of Eucalyptus. Psyllaephagus bliteus Riek (Hymenoptera: Encyrtidae) is a specialized parasitoid of this psyllid that was accidentally introduced into Italy in 2011. We developed a model of this host–parasitoid system that accounts for the influence of environmental conditions on the G. brimblecombei population dynamics and P. bliteus parasitism rates in the natural ecosystem. The Lotka–Volterra-based model predicts non-constant host growth and parasitoid mortality rates in association with variation in environmental conditions. The model was …
Dealing with physical barriers in bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus) distribution
2019
Abstract Worldwide, cetacean species have started to be protected, but they are still very vulnerable to accidental damage from an expanding range of human activities at sea. To properly manage these potential threats we need a detailed understanding of the seasonal distributions of these highly mobile populations. To achieve this goal, a growing effort has been underway to develop species distribution models (SDMs) that correctly describe and predict preferred species areas. However, accuracy is not always easy to achieve when physical barriers, such as islands, are present. Indeed, SDMs assume, if only implicitly, that the spatial effect is stationary, and that correlation is only depende…
Arctic avian predators synchronise their spring migration with the northern progression of snowmelt
2020
AbstractMigratory species display a range of migration patterns between irruptive (facultative) to regular (obligate), as a response to different predictability of resources. In the Arctic, snow directly influences resource availability. The causes and consequences of different migration patterns of migratory species as a response to the snow conditions remains however unexplored. Birds migrating to the Arctic are expected to follow the spring snowmelt to optimise their arrival time and select for snow-free areas to maximise prey encounter en-route. Based on large-scale movement data, we compared the migration patterns of three top predator species of the tundra in relation to the spatio-te…
Erosion of Lizard Diversity by Climate Change and Altered Thermal Niches
2010
It is predicted that climate change will cause species extinctions and distributional shifts in coming decades, but data to validate these predictions are relatively scarce. Here, we compare recent and historical surveys for 48 Mexican lizard species at 200 sites. Since 1975, 12% of local populations have gone extinct. We verified physiological models of extinction risk with observed local extinctions and extended projections worldwide. Since 1975, we estimate that 4% of local populations have gone extinct worldwide, but by 2080 local extinctions are projected to reach 39% worldwide, and species extinctions may reach 20%. Global extinction projections were validated with local extinctions o…
Distribution of Herbivorous Fish Is Frozen by Low Temperature.
2016
AbstractThe number of herbivores in populations of ectothermic vertebrates decreases with increasing latitude. At higher latitudes, fish consuming plant matter are exclusively omnivorous. We assess whether omnivorous fish readily shift to herbivory or whether animal prey is typically preferred. We address temperature as the key factor causing their absence at higher latitudes and discuss the potential poleward dispersion caused by climate changes. A controlled experiment illustrates that rudd (Scardinius erythrophthalmus) readily utilize plant matter at water temperatures above 20 °C and avoid its consumption below 20 °C. Field data support these results, showing that plant matter dominates…
Quantitative Genetics of the Aging of Reproductive Traits in the Houbara Bustard
2015
International audience; Do all traits within an organism age for the same reason? Evolutionary theories of aging share a common assumption: the strength of natural selection declines with age. A corollary is that additive genetic variance should increase with age. However, not all senescent traits display such increases suggesting that other mechanisms may be at play. Using longitudinal data collected from more than 5400 houbara bustards (Chlamydotis undulata) with an exhaustive recorded pedigree, we investigated the genetics of aging in one female reproductive trait (egg production) and three male reproductive traits (courtship display rate, ejaculate size and sperm viability), that displa…
A Network Model for the Correlation between Epistasis and Genomic Complexity
2008
The study of genetic interactions (epistasis) is central to the understanding of genome organization and evolution. A general correlation between epistasis and genomic complexity has been recently shown, such that in simpler genomes epistasis is antagonistic on average (mutational effects tend to cancel each other out), whereas a transition towards synergistic epistasis occurs in more complex genomes (mutational effects strengthen each other). Here, we use a simple network model to identify basic features explaining this correlation. We show that, in small networks with multifunctional nodes, lack of redundancy, and absence of alternative pathways, epistasis is antagonistic on average. In c…