Search results for "probabilistic"

Probabilistic cross-validation estimators for Gaussian process regression

2018

Gaussian Processes (GPs) are state-of-the-art tools for regression. Inference of GP hyperparameters is typically done by maximizing the marginal log-likelihood (ML). If the data truly follows the GP model, using the ML approach is optimal and computationally efficient. Unfortunately very often this is not case and suboptimal results are obtained in terms of prediction error. Alternative procedures such as cross-validation (CV) schemes are often employed instead, but they usually incur in high computational costs. We propose a probabilistic version of CV (PCV) based on two different model pieces in order to reduce the dependence on a specific model choice. PCV presents the benefits from both…

A Probabilistic Model for Crystal Growth Applied toProtein Deposition at the Microscale.

2018

A probabilistic discrete model for 2D protein crystal growth is presented. This model takes into account the available space and can describe growing processes of a different nature due to the versatility of its parameters, which gives the model great flexibility. The accuracy of the simulation is tested against a real recrystallization experiment, carried out with the bacterial protein SbpA from Lysinibacillus sphaericus CCM2177, showing high agreement between the proposed model and the actual images of the crystal growth. Finally, it is also discussed how the regularity of the interface (i.e., the curve that separates the crystal from the substrate) affects the evolution of the simulation.

Uncertainty quantification on a spatial Markov-chain model for the progression of skin cancer

2019

AbstractA spatial Markov-chain model is formulated for the progression of skin cancer. The model is based on the division of the computational domain into nodal points, that can be in a binary state: either in ‘cancer state’ or in ‘non-cancer state’. The model assigns probabilities for the non-reversible transition from ‘non-cancer’ state to the ‘cancer state’ that depend on the states of the neighbouring nodes. The likelihood of transition further depends on the life burden intensity of the UV-rays that the skin is exposed to. The probabilistic nature of the process and the uncertainty in the input data is assessed by the use of Monte Carlo simulations. A good fit between experiments on mi…

Error in the finite difference based probabilistic dynamic analysis: analytical evaluation

2005

Adaptive Kernel Learning for Signal Processing

2018

Adaptive filtering is a central topic in digital signal processing (DSP). By applying linear adaptive filtering principles in the kernel feature space, powerful nonlinear adaptive filtering algorithms can be obtained. This chapter introduces the wide topic of adaptive signal processing, and explores the emerging field of kernel adaptive filtering (KAF). In many signal processing applications, the problem of signal estimation is addressed. Probabilistic models have proven to be very useful in this context. The chapter discusses two families of kernel adaptive filters, namely kernel least mean squares (KLMS) and kernel recursive least‐squares (KRLS) algorithms. In order to design a practical …

Probabilistic liver atlas construction

2017

Background Anatomical atlases are 3D volumes or shapes representing an organ or structure of the human body. They contain either the prototypical shape of the object of interest together with other shapes representing its statistical variations (statistical atlas) or a probability map of belonging to the object (probabilistic atlas). Probabilistic atlases are mostly built with simple estimations only involving the data at each spatial location. Results A new method for probabilistic atlas construction that uses a generalized linear model is proposed. This method aims to improve the estimation of the probability to be covered by the liver. Furthermore, all methods to build an atlas involve p…

Facilitating Effect of Natural Frequencies: Size Does Not Matter

2009

The question of whether humans are able to work in a Bayesian way is currently a topic of substantial investigation. An important finding, reported by Gigerenzer and Hoffrage in 1995 is that Bayesian reasoning is facilitated when the information format corresponds to natural frequencies. The present concern was whether the facilitating effect of frequencies persists when natural frequencies relate to samples which are not convenient multiples of 10. 150 undergraduates participated as volunteers (42 men, 108 women; M age = 23 yr.). Analysis showed the effect of natural frequency formats was not dependent on size of reference class. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed.

Statistical analysis of life history calendar data

2016

The life history calendar is a data-collection tool for obtaining reliable retrospective data about life events. To illustrate the analysis of such data, we compare the model-based probabilistic event history analysis and the model-free data mining method, sequence analysis. In event history analysis, we estimate instead of transition hazards the cumulative prediction probabilities of life events in the entire trajectory. In sequence analysis, we compare several dissimilarity metrics and contrast data-driven and user-defined substitution costs. As an example, we study young adults' transition to adulthood as a sequence of events in three life domains. The events define the multistate event…

Acute stress impairs reward positivity effect in probabilistic learning

2019

Decision making based on feedback learning requires a series of cognitive processes, including estimating the probability of particular outcomes and modulating expectations between expected versus actual outcomes. It has been suggested that stress affects decision making and subsequent processing of feedback valence and magnitude. However, less is known about the effect of acute stress on reward expectancy. In the current study, participants performed a probabilistic learning task, in which they learned an association between response and feedback within different reward expectancy trials (30% and 70%) under the conditions of stress (threat of shock) and safety (no shock). We recorded event…

Biomonitoring of bisphenols A, F, S in human milk and probabilistic risk assessment for breastfed infants

2019

The present study addresses the presence of bisphenols A (BPA) and its analogs bisphenol F (BPF) and S (BPS) in milk of 120 mothers living in Valencia (Spain) and participating in the BETTERMILK project (year 2015). We also studied the factors that could influence the BPA levels and estimated the exposure and the risk for breast fed infants. The frequency of detection of total (conjugated + unconjugated) and unconjugated-BPA were 83% and 77%. with a geometric mean of 0.29 ng/mL and 0.15 ng/mL, respectively. The frequency of detection was much lower for total-BPF (22%) and total-BPS (1.1%). The place of residence of the mother and the use of personal care products showed significant associat…