Search results for "probability"
showing 10 items of 3417 documents
Calcaneal Bone Mineral Density Predicts Fracture Occurrence: A Five-Year Follow-up Study in Elderly People
1997
A 5-year follow-up study investigated calcaneal bone mineral density (BMD) and changes in BMD in relation to fracture occurrence. The subjects comprised two cohorts born in 1914 and 1910 living in the city of Jyväskylä in central Finland. One hundred and three men (82%) and 188 women (73%), aged 75, and 57 men (74%) and 136 women (65%), aged 80, of the eligible population participated in the baseline bone measurements. The follow-up bone measurements were obtained for 59 men (68%) and 119 women (66%), aged 80 years, and for 21 men (53%) and 61 women (48%), aged 85 years. During the follow-up period, 8 men and 36 women from the younger and 11 men and 24 women from the older cohort sustained …
Weighted Least-Squares Likelihood Ratio Test for Branch Testing in Phylogenies Reconstructed from Distance Measures
2005
A variety of analytical methods is available for branch testing in distance-based phylogenies. However, these methods are rarely used, possibly because the estimation of some of their statistics, especially the covariances, is not always feasible. We show that these difficulties can be overcome if some simplifying assumptions are made, namely distance independence. The weighted least-squares likelihood ratio test (WLS-LRT) we propose is easy to perform, using only the distances and some of their associated variances. If no variances are known, the use of the Felsenstein F-test, also based on weighted least squares, is discussed. Using simulated data and a data set of 43 mammalian mitochondr…
Les followers ont-ils vraiment de l'importance dans le modèle de Stackelberg?
2011
In this paper, we consider a T-stage linear model of Stackelberg oligopoly. First, we show geometrically and analytically that under the two conditions of linear market demand and identical constant marginal costs, the T-stage Stackelberg model reduces to a model where T oligopolies exploit residual demand sequentially. At any stage, leaders behave as if followers did not matter. Second, we study social welfare and convergence toward competitive equilibrium. Especially, we consider the velocity of convergence as the number of firms increases. The convergence is faster when reallocating firms from the most to the less populated cohort until equalizing the size of all cohorts.
Demand for and Pricing of Mobile Internet: Evidence from a Real-World Pricing Experiment
2006
Commercialization of innovations frequently stumbles. A prominent recent example are the early (i.e. pre3G)mobile phone-enabled Internet services, whose European takeup was slower than expected. To determine why, we build a structural model of demand for such services and estimate it using consumerlevel panel data from a real world pricing experiment. The experiment allows for a decomposition of the number of wireless connections into the number of needs instances where a consumer would establish a connection if the price were zero and the conditional probability of establishing a connection. We find that needs were plenty and potential consumer surplus several magnitudes higher than that a…
Minimising value-at-risk in a portfolio optimisation problem using a multi-objective genetic algorithm
2011
[EN] In this paper, we develop a general framework for market risk optimisation that focuses on VaR. The reason for this choice is the complexity and problems associated with risk return optimisation (non-convex and non-differential objective function). Our purpose is to obtain VaR efficient frontiers using a multi-objective genetic algorithm (GA) and to show the potential utility of the algorithm to obtain efficient portfolios when the risk measure does not allow calculating an optimal solution. Furthermore, we measure differences between VaR efficient frontiers and variance efficient frontiers in VaR-return space and we evaluate out-sample capacity of portfolios on both bullish and bearis…
Bayesian forecasting with the Holt–Winters model
2010
Exponential smoothing methods are widely used as forecasting techniques in inventory systems and business planning, where reliable prediction intervals are also required for a large number of series. This paper describes a Bayesian forecasting approach based on the Holt–Winters model, which allows obtaining accurate prediction intervals. We show how to build them incorporating the uncertainty due to the smoothing unknowns using a linear heteroscedastic model. That linear formulation simplifies obtaining the posterior distribution on the unknowns; a random sample from such posterior, which is not analytical, is provided using an acceptance sampling procedure and a Monte Carlo approach gives …
Pure donation or hybrid donation crowdfunding
2019
PurposeDespite the growing research exploring the possibility and feasibility of financing socially oriented projects through crowdfunding, relatively little research examines which crowdfunding model is better to serve such purpose. The purpose of this paper is to offer novel insights to mitigate this research gap.Design/methodology/approachA unique data set collected from the largest Chinese crowdfunding platform is used to test the hypotheses. To solve the perceived self-selection problem, the propensity score matching method is adopted in this paper. Based on this approach, the results of similar prosocial campaigns in two different models (pure donation and hybrid donation) are compare…
Is the cardholder an efficient alarm system to detect credit card incidents?
2015
There is a growing tendency in credit card industry to increase the contribution of the smallest players, the cardholders, in the detection of card incidents. This article examines whether cardholders are efficient at detecting/communicating incidents of theft, loss or fraudulent use of their cards. The analysis focuses on whether they demonstrate enough speed of response to support a risk control subsystem by the issuer. The research follows a completely new approach showing how the issue can be handled by applying the concept of elasticity, a notion just recently exported from economics to the field of statistics by linking it with the reverse hazard rate. The issue is focused on the anal…
Statistical formats to optimize evidence-based decision making: A behavioral approach
2013
Abstract Statistical information is crucial for managerial decision making. The decision-making literature in psychology and mathematical cognition documents how different statistical formats can facilitate certain types of decisions. The present analysis is the first of its kind to assess the impact of statistical formats in the presentation of data from market research on both the optimality of market decisions and the time required to perform the decision-making process. An economic experiment provides the data for this study. The experiment presents statistical information in simple frequencies and relative frequencies using numerical and pictorial representations in the context of diff…
Risk aversion in prediction markets: A framed-field experiment
2016
International audience; To make better decisions today, companies and other economic agents are interested in getting accurate predictions of future events. Prediction markets can, at least potentially, give those accurate forecasts for the probability of the event by aggregating information from traders. However, formal studies highlight that the risk attitudes of market participants may bias the market equilibrium prices, and consequently make the prediction unreliable. This research examines the effect of participants' risk attitudes on prediction market prices, through a framed field experiment on the two semifinals at the 2015 NCAA Men's Division Basketball Tournament. The results of t…