Search results for "probability"
showing 10 items of 3417 documents
A “Swedish” actuarial balance for a notional defined contribution pension scheme with disability and minimum pension benefits
2017
This article proposes a “Swedish” type actuarial balance sheet (ABS) for a notional defined contribution (NDC) scheme with disability and minimum pension benefits. The proposed ABS splits the pension system in two parts: the pure NDC part and the redistributive part, which includes the assets and liabilities originating from non-contributory rights. The article contains a numerical example that sheds light on the real applicability of our proposal. The model has practical implications that could be of interest to policy-makers, given that it integrates actuarial and social aspects of public pensions and discloses the real cost of redistribution through minimum pensions.
Thompson Sampling Guided Stochastic Searching on the Line for Adversarial Learning
2015
The multi-armed bandit problem has been studied for decades. In brief, a gambler repeatedly pulls one out of N slot machine arms, randomly receiving a reward or a penalty from each pull. The aim of the gambler is to maximize the expected number of rewards received, when the probabilities of receiving rewards are unknown. Thus, the gambler must, as quickly as possible, identify the arm with the largest probability of producing rewards, compactly capturing the exploration-exploitation dilemma in reinforcement learning. In this paper we introduce a particular challenging variant of the multi-armed bandit problem, inspired by the so-called N-Door Puzzle. In this variant, the gambler is only tol…
Separating mismatch negativity (MMN) response from auditory obligatory brain responses in school-aged children
2013
Mismatch negativity (MMN) overlaps with other auditory event-related potential (ERP) components. We examined the ERPs of 50 9- to 11-year-old children for vowels /i/, /y/ and equivalent complex tones. The goal was to separate MMN from obligatory ERP components using principal component analysis and equal probability control condition. In addition to the contrast of the deviant minus standard response, we employed the contrast of the deviant minus control response, to see whether the obligatory processing contributes to MMN in children. When looking for differences in speech deviant minus standard contrast, MMN starts around 112 ms. However, when both contrasts are examined, MMN emerges for …
Electron Emission of Pt: Experimental Study and Comparison With Models in the Multipactor Energy Range
2016
Experimental data of secondary emission yield (SEY) and electron emission spectra of Pt under electron irradiation for normal incidence and primary energies lower than 1 keV are presented. Several relevant magnitudes, as total SEY, elastic backscattering probability, secondary emission spectrum, and backscattering coefficient, are given for different primary energies. These magnitudes are compared with theoretical or semiempirical formulas commonly used in the related literature.
Optional Sampling Theorems
2020
In Chapter 9 we saw that martingales are transformed into martingales if we apply certain admissible gambling strategies. In this chapter, we establish a similar stability property for martingales that are stopped at a random time (optional sampling and optional stopping). In order also to obtain these results for submartingales and supermartingales, in the first section, we start with a decomposition theorem for adapted processes. We show the optional sampling and optional stopping theorems in the second section. The chapter finishes with the investigation of random stopping times with an infinite time horizon.
Effects of Grade Retention Policies: A Literature Review of Empirical Studies Applying Causal Inference
2021
The identification of the causal effects of grade retention policies is of enormous relevance for researchers and policymakers alike. Taking advantage of the availability of more detailed longitudinal datasets, researchers have been able to apply different identification strategies that address the classical problems of selection bias and unobserved heterogeneity that have plagued previous studies on the effect of retention. We present a systematic literature review of empirical studies aiming to unveil the causal effects of retention. This study underlines the need to consider and evaluate different kinds of grade retention polices as their effects vary depending on several dimensions (suc…
Conceptions associated with sense of belonging in different school placements for Finnish pupils with special education needs
2015
AbstractThe aim of this study was to examine conceptions associated with sense of belonging (SEBE) in Finnish general and special school placements for pupils with special education needs. Five pupils were selected for this study by means of purposive sampling. They had a history of several school placements prior to arriving at their current special school. Qualitative phenomenographic analyses of interview transcripts revealed numerous conceptions regarding the pupils’ SEBE in the different educational placements. The pupils had undergone numerous placements in which their SEBE had been jeopardised, as disturbing relationships with teachers and peers seemed to have affected the pupils’ me…
Bayesian Analysis of a Future Beta Decay Experiment's Sensitivity to Neutrino Mass Scale and Ordering
2021
Bayesian modeling techniques enable sensitivity analyses that incorporate detailed expectations regarding future experiments. A model-based approach also allows one to evaluate inferences and predicted outcomes, by calibrating (or measuring) the consequences incurred when certain results are reported. We present procedures for calibrating predictions of an experiment's sensitivity to both continuous and discrete parameters. Using these procedures and a new Bayesian model of the $\beta$-decay spectrum, we assess a high-precision $\beta$-decay experiment's sensitivity to the neutrino mass scale and ordering, for one assumed design scenario. We find that such an experiment could measure the el…
Analysis of the Overdispersed Clock in the Short-Term Evolution of Hepatitis C Virus: Using the E1/E2 Gene Sequences to Infer Infection Dates in a Si…
2006
Abstract The assumption of a molecular clock for dating events from sequence information is often frustrated by the presence of heterogeneity among evolutionary rates due, among other factors, to positively selected sites. In this work, our goal is to explore methods to estimate infection dates from sequence analysis. One such method, based on site stripping for clock detection, was proposed to unravel the clocklike molecular evolution in sequences showing high variability of evolutionary rates and in the presence of positive selection. Other alternatives imply accommodating heterogeneity in evolutionary rates at various levels, without eliminating any information from the data. Here we pre…
L∞ estimates in optimal mass transportation
2016
We show that in any complete metric space the probability measures μ with compact and connected support are the ones having the property that the optimal transportation distance to any other probability measure ν living on the support of μ is bounded below by a positive function of the L∞ transportation distance between μ and ν. The function giving the lower bound depends only on the lower bound of the μ-measures of balls centered at the support of μ and on the cost function used in the optimal transport. We obtain an essentially sharp form of this function. In the case of strictly convex cost functions we show that a similar estimate holds on the level of optimal transport plans if and onl…