Search results for "probability"
showing 10 items of 3417 documents
Lieu de résidence et discrimination salariale
2010
Ziel dieses Artikels ist es, die Lohnabweichungen zwischen Jugendlichen, die in sensiblen städtischen Zonen wohnen, am Ende ihrer Ausbildung und denjenigen, die zwar nicht in einer solchen Zone leben, die aber in städtischen Einheiten mit solchen Zonen wohnen, unter Berücksichtigung möglicher Barrieren beim Zugang zu bestimmten Beschäftigungen und insbesondere zu den Arbeitsplätzen von Führungskräften zu untersuchen. In Anknüpfung an Brown, Moon und Zoloth (1980) schlagen wir eine Zerlegung der Lohnabweichungen vor, bei der die Möglichkeit einer Differenzierung beim Zugang zu bestimmten Beschäftigungen entsprechend der Art des Stadtviertels, in dem die Jugendlichen wohnen, berücksichtigt wi…
Dans quelle mesure les préférences individuelles contraignent-elles le développement du marché de l'assurance dépendance ?
2015
Dans un contexte de vieillissement de la population, différents scenarii sont envisagés pour réformer l’organisation et le financement de la prise en charge des personnes âgées dépendantes. La place de la prévoyance individuelle dans le financement de la dépendance est à ce titre largement débattue. À l’heure actuelle, malgré des restes à charge potentiellement conséquents, peu d’individus disposent d’une couverture assurantielle. Cet article vise à enrichir la littérature existante en évaluant dans quelle mesure les préférences observées dans la population limitent cette couverture. Nous mobilisons pour cela l’enquête Patrimoine et préférences vis-à-vis du temps et du risque (Pater) de 201…
Assessing implicit hypotheses in life table construction
2016
AbstractMortality figures are of capital importance for policy-making and public planning, as in forecasting financial provisions in public pension systems. General population life tables are constructed from aggregated statistics, an issue that usually entails adopting some (implicit) assumptions in their construction, such as the hypothesis of closed demographic system or the hypotheses of uniform distributions of death counts (and migration events) by age and calendar year. As microdata have become more abundant and reliable, these hypotheses could be assessed and more assumption-free estimators employed. Using a real database from Spain, we show that the above hypotheses are not appropr…
The Age Structure of Human Capital and Economic Growth
2018
This paper shows that the age structure of human capital is a relevant characteristic to take into account when analysing the role of human capital in economic growth. The effect of an increase in the education of the population aged 40–49 years is found to be an order of magnitude larger than an increase in the education attained by any other age cohort. The results are unlikely to be driven by the age structure of the population, as we find that the effects on growth of the age structure of education and the age structure of population are distinct. The findings are robust across specifications and remain unchanged when we control for long‐delayed effects in human capital or for the exper…
Ruin probabilities in the presence of heavy tails and interest rates
1997
Abstract We study the infinite time ruin probability for the classical Cramer-Lundberg model, where the company also receives interest on its reserve. We consider the large claims case, where the claim size distribution F has a regularly varying tail. Hence our results apply for instance to Pareto, loggamma, certain Benktander and stable claim size distributions. We prove that for a positive force of interest δ the ruin probability ψδ (u) ∼ κδ (1 - F(u)) as the initial risk reserve u→∞. This is quantitatively different from the non-interest model, where ψ(u) ∼ κ (1 – F(y)) dy.
Local Spatial Log-Gaussian Cox Processes for seismic data
2022
AbstractIn this paper, we propose the use of advanced and flexible statistical models to describe the spatial displacement of earthquake data. The paper aims to account for the external geological information in the description of complex seismic point processes, through the estimation of models with space varying parameters. A local version of the Log-Gaussian Cox processes (LGCP) is introduced and applied for the first time, exploiting the inferential tools in Baddeley (Spat Stat 22:261–295, 2017), estimating the model by the local Palm likelihood. We provide methods and approaches accounting for the interaction among points, typically described by LGCP models through the estimation of th…
The Raising Factor, That Great Unknown. A Guided Activity for Undergraduate Students
2020
In the first years of their economics degree programs, students will face many problems successfully dealing with a range of subjects with quantitative content. Specifically, in the field of statistics, difficulties to reach some basic academic achievements have been observed. Hence, a continuing challenge for statistics teachers is how to make this subject more appealing for students through the design and implementation of new teaching methodologies. The latter tend to follow two main approaches. On the one hand, it is useful for the learning process to propose practical activities that can connect theoretical concepts with real applications in the economic context. On the other hand, we …
Reducing the effect of the data order in algorithms for constructing phylogenetic trees.
1988
Symmetrised M-estimators of multivariate scatter
2007
AbstractIn this paper we introduce a family of symmetrised M-estimators of multivariate scatter. These are defined to be M-estimators only computed on pairwise differences of the observed multivariate data. Symmetrised Huber's M-estimator and Dümbgen's estimator serve as our examples. The influence functions of the symmetrised M-functionals are derived and the limiting distributions of the estimators are discussed in the multivariate elliptical case to consider the robustness and efficiency properties of estimators. The symmetrised M-estimators have the important independence property; they can therefore be used to find the independent components in the independent component analysis (ICA).