Search results for "scena"
showing 10 items of 203 documents
A spreadsheet modeling approach to the Holt–Winters optimal forecasting
2001
Abstract The objective of this paper is to determine the optimal forecasting for the Holt–Winters exponential smoothing model using spreadsheet modeling. This forecasting procedure is especially useful for short-term forecasts for series of sales data or levels of demand for goods. The non-linear programming problem associated with this forecasting model is formulated and a spreadsheet model is used to solve the problem of optimization efficiently. Also, a spreadsheet makes it possible to work in parallel with various objective functions (measures of forecast errors) and different procedures for calculating the initial values of the components of the model. Using a scenario analysis, the se…
A parsimonious model for generating arbitrage-free scenario trees
2016
Simulation models of economic, financial and business risk factors are widely used to assess risks and support decision-making. Extensive literature on scenario generation methods aims at describing some underlying stochastic processes with the least number of scenarios to overcome the ‘curse of dimensionality’. There is, however, an important requirement that is usually overlooked when one departs from the application domain of security pricing: the no-arbitrage condition. We formulate a moment matching model to generate multi-factor scenario trees for stochastic optimization satisfying no-arbitrage restrictions with a minimal number of scenarios and without any distributional assumptions.…
Escena Erasmus: Els viatgers
2013
El projecte teatral de la Universitat de València Escena Erasmus representa hui dijous a la Nau l'obra 'Els viatgers'. L'actuació es podrà veure en directe per MediaUni a partir de les 22:30 hores. L'obra serà representada en una gira per diferents poblacions valencians aquest mes de juliol.
Future Projection of precipitation changes in the Júcar and Segura River Basins (Iberian Peninsula) by CMIP5 GCMs Local Downscaling
2021
The basins of the Júcar and Segura rivers, on the Mediterranean coast of the Iberian Peninsula, present a special water problem and are of particular interest regarding climate change. These basins are very vulnerable to a possible scenario of decreasing water resources. Recent studies on historic rainfall since 1955 have indicated an ongoing loss of precipitation in their headwaters, especially in the case of the Júcar river. The aim of the present study is to perform climate projections for the precipitation variable for several future periods (2021–2040, 2051–2070, 2081–2100) and emission scenarios (RCPs 4.5, 8.5) within the Júcar and Segura River Basin authorities. For this purpose, a s…
Traffic induced air pollution modeling: Scenario analysis for air quality management in street canyon
2019
This study was supported by the Riga City research project DMV-17-60-lī-03.02.2017. The authors wish to thank the Riga City Council and Latvian Environment, Geology and Meteorology Centre for data used in this study.
Millennials. La nuova scena della grafica italiana
2015
L’idea di Millennials è nata, si è sviluppata e articolata, strutturandosi in modo ben più complesso da quelle che erano le istanze iniziali, intorno a una necessità: fotografare la scena della grafica italiana degli anni più recenti, focalizzandosi sulle produzioni di autori nati dopo il 1980. Il discrimine temporale nasce dalla constatazione di un cambio di passo, di una trasformazione radicale dovuta a più fattori: l’evoluzione tecnologica (è questa la prima generazione completamente digitalizzata), la crisi economica, che ha necessariamente imposto nuove modalità di produzione e di autorappresentazione, i percorsi formativi, strutturati da corsi di studi rivolti all’ambito disciplinare …
Modeling software integration scenarios for telecommunications operations software vendors
2007
- Telecom operators deploy a vast number of software systems to support their operations. Vendors of these systems often integrate such software in their products in order to enable innovations, minimize the customer's integration efforts, etc. Different integration scenarios can be envisioned, and the issue of identifying more beneficial scenarios is of a great importance to the vendors. This paper focuses on analyzing different integration scenarios in the context of telecommunications operations software. For each scenario, the overall modularity of the set of software systems is evaluated, and the expected benefits of the scenario are modeled in terms of the modularity gain it provides.…
Visitor arrivals forecasts amid COVID-19: A perspective from the Africa team
2021
Abstract COVID-19 disrupted international tourism worldwide, subsequently presenting forecasters with a challenging conundrum. In this competition, we predict international arrivals for 20 destinations in two phases: (i) Ex post forecasts pre-COVID; (ii) Ex ante forecasts during and after the pandemic up to end 2021. Our results show that univariate combined with cross-sectional hierarchical forecasting techniques (THieF-ETS) outperform multivariate models pre-COVID. Scenarios were developed based on judgemental adjustment of the THieF-ETS baseline forecasts. Analysts provided a regional view on the most likely path to normal, based on country-specific regulations, macroeconomic conditions,…
Música y diálogo cultural en la Valencia de la Renaixença entre los siglos XIX y XX
2015
El movimiento conocido como la Renaixença supuso un importante impulso de renovación en la lengua, cultura y sociedad catalana, mallorquina y valenciana. El fenómeno ha sido ampliamente estudiado desde las áreas de la historia y la filología y, sin embargo, todavía está poco investigado en musicología. En este artículo ofrecemos una aproximación a la influencia de las ideas de la Renaixença en música en la ciudad de Valencia, fundamentalmente a través de la zarzuela y de la música sacra. Mostramos la colaboración de los músicos con entidades culturales y nos centramos en algunos ejemplos sobre la utilización del texto en el idioma autóctono y la recuperación de la música del pasado. También…
Transition to sustainability: Italian scenarios towards a low-carbon economy
2014
This paper analyzes different policies that may promote the transition to sustainability, with a particular focus on the energy sector. We present a dynamic simulation model where three different strategies for sustainability are identified: reduction in GHG emissions, improvements in energy efficiency and the development of the renewable energy sector. Our aim is to evaluate the dynamics that those strategies may produce in the economy, looking at different performance indicators: rate of growth, unemployment, fiscal position, GHG emission, and transition to renewable energy sources. © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2014.