Search results for "stochastic"
showing 10 items of 1018 documents
Power-law relaxation in a complex system: Omori law after a financial market crash
2003
We study the relaxation dynamics of a financial market just after the occurrence of a crash by investigating the number of times the absolute value of an index return is exceeding a given threshold value. We show that the empirical observation of a power law evolution of the number of events exceeding the selected threshold (a behavior known as the Omori law in geophysics) is consistent with the simultaneous occurrence of (i) a return probability density function characterized by a power law asymptotic behavior and (ii) a power law relaxation decay of its typical scale. Our empirical observation cannot be explained within the framework of simple and widespread stochastic volatility models.
Stability measures in metastable states with Gaussian colored noise
2009
We present a study of the escape time from a metastable state of an overdamped Brownian particle, in the presence of colored noise generated by Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. We analyze the role of the correlation time on the enhancement of the mean first passage time through a potential barrier and on the behavior of the mean growth rate coefficient as a function of the noise intensity. We observe the noise enhanced stability effect for all the initial unstable states used, and for all values of the correlation time $\tau_c$ investigated. We can distinguish two dynamical regimes characterized by weak and strong correlated noise respectively, depending on the value of $\tau_c$ with respect to …
Finite-size effects in dynamics of zero-range processes
2010
The finite-size effects prominent in zero-range processes exhibiting a condensation transition are studied by using continuous-time Monte Carlo simulations. We observe that, well above the thermodynamic critical point, both static and dynamic properties display fluid-like behavior up to a density {\rho}c (L), which is the finite-size counterpart of the critical density {\rho}c = {\rho}c (L \rightarrow \infty). We determine this density from the cross-over behavior of the average size of the largest cluster. We then show that several dynamical characteristics undergo a qualitative change at this density. In particular, the size distribution of the largest cluster at the moment of relocation,…
Linear and nonlinear experimental regimes of stochastic resonance
2000
We investigate the stochastic resonance phenomenon in a physical system based on a tunnel diode. The experimental control parameters are set to allow the control of the frequency and amplitude of the deterministic modulating signal over an interval of values spanning several orders of magnitude. We observe both a regime described by the linear response theory and the nonlinear deviation from it. In the nonlinear regime we detect saturation of the power spectral density of the output signal detected at the frequency of the modulating signal and a dip in the noise level of the same spectral density. When these effects are observed we detect a phase and frequency synchronization between the st…
Statistical Properties of Statistical Ensembles of Stock Returns
1999
We select n stocks traded in the New York Stock Exchange and we form a statistical ensemble of daily stock returns for each of the k trading days of our database from the stock price time series. We analyze each ensemble of stock returns by extracting its first four central moments. We observe that these moments are fluctuating in time and are stochastic processes themselves. We characterize the statistical properties of central moments by investigating their probability density function and temporal correlation properties.
Variety and volatility in financial markets
2000
We study the price dynamics of stocks traded in a financial market by considering the statistical properties both of a single time series and of an ensemble of stocks traded simultaneously. We use the $n$ stocks traded in the New York Stock Exchange to form a statistical ensemble of daily stock returns. For each trading day of our database, we study the ensemble return distribution. We find that a typical ensemble return distribution exists in most of the trading days with the exception of crash and rally days and of the days subsequent to these extreme events. We analyze each ensemble return distribution by extracting its first two central moments. We observe that these moments are fluctua…
$L_2$-variation of L\'{e}vy driven BSDEs with non-smooth terminal conditions
2016
We consider the $L_2$-regularity of solutions to backward stochastic differential equations (BSDEs) with Lipschitz generators driven by a Brownian motion and a Poisson random measure associated with a L\'{e}vy process $(X_t)_{t\in[0,T]}$. The terminal condition may be a Borel function of finitely many increments of the L\'{e}vy process which is not necessarily Lipschitz but only satisfies a fractional smoothness condition. The results are obtained by investigating how the special structure appearing in the chaos expansion of the terminal condition is inherited by the solution to the BSDE.
Conditional convex orders and measurable martingale couplings
2014
Strassen's classical martingale coupling theorem states that two real-valued random variables are ordered in the convex (resp.\ increasing convex) stochastic order if and only if they admit a martingale (resp.\ submartingale) coupling. By analyzing topological properties of spaces of probability measures equipped with a Wasserstein metric and applying a measurable selection theorem, we prove a conditional version of this result for real-valued random variables conditioned on a random element taking values in a general measurable space. We also provide an analogue of the conditional martingale coupling theorem in the language of probability kernels and illustrate how this result can be appli…
Properties of the elasticity of a continuous random variable. A special look at its behavior and speed of change
2016
ABSTRACTBelzunce et al. (1995) define the elasticity for non negative random variables as the reversed proportional failure rate (RPFR). Veres-Ferrer and Pavia (2012, 2014b) interpret it in economic terms, extending its definition to variables that can also take negative values, and briefly present the role of elasticity in characterizing probability distributions. This paper highlights a set of properties demonstrated by elasticity, which shows many similar properties to the reverse hazard function. This paper pays particular attention to studying the increase/decrease and the speed of change of the elasticity function. These are important properties because of the characterizing role of e…
Cross-Commodity Spot Price Modeling with Stochastic Volatility and Leverage For Energy Markets
2013
Spot prices in energy markets exhibit special features, such as price spikes, mean reversion, stochastic volatility, inverse leverage effect, and dependencies between the commodities. In this paper a multivariate stochastic volatility model is introduced which captures these features. The second-order structure and stationarity of the model are analyzed in detail. A simulation method for Monte Carlo generation of price paths is introduced and a numerical example is presented.