Search results for "uncertainty."

On the influence of using binary and distributed information for 2D hydraulic model calibration and uncertainty evaluation

2013

Floods are considered the most frequent natural disaster world-wide and may have serious socio economic impacts in a community. In order to accomplish flood risk mitigation, flood risk analysis and assessment are required to provide information on current or future flood hazard and risks. Hazard and risk maps involve different data, expertise and effort, depending also on the end-users. More or less advanced deterministic approaches can be used, but intuitively probabilistic approaches seem to be more correct and suited for modelling flood inundation given typical uncertainties. Two very important matters remain open for research: the calibration of hydraulic models (oriented towards the es…

Do Uncertainty and Fuzziness Present Themselves (and Behave) in the Same Way in Hard and Human Sciences?

2010

In the present paper the question whether uncertainty and fuzziness present themselves and behave in the same way (or not) in hard and human sciences will be briefly discussed. This problem came out from the attempt to answer the question asked by Lotfi Zadeh on the (apparent) strangeness of a very limited use of fuzzy sets in human sciences.

Low-temperature large-distance asymptotics of the transversal two-point functions of the XXZ chain

2014

We derive the low-temperature large-distance asymptotics of the transversal two-point functions of the XXZ chain by summing up the asymptotically dominant terms of their expansion into form factors of the quantum transfer matrix. Our asymptotic formulae are numerically efficient and match well with known results for vanishing magnetic field and for short distances and magnetic fields below the saturation field.

Epistemic cooperation scripts in online learning environments: Fostering learning by reducing uncertainty in discourse?

2005

Using online learning environments in higher education offers innovative possibilities to support collaborative learning. However, online learning creates new kinds of problems for participants who have not previously worked with each other. One of these problems is uncertainty which occurs when participants do not know each other. According to the uncertainty reduction theory, low uncertainty level increases the amount of discourse and decreases the amount of information seeking. Therefore, uncertainty may influence online discourse and learning. This study investigates the effects of an epistemic cooperation script with respect to the amount of discourse, information seeking and learning …

Dysfunctional beliefs about health and illness: a family study

2019

Los modelos cognitivos sobre la hipocondría postulan que las experiencias tempranas con la enfermedad promueven el desarrollo de creencias disfuncionales sobre la enfermedad. Estas creencias pueden permanecer latentes y activarse ante un incidente crítico. Los estudios publicados aportan datos que avalan de mane- ra indirecta estos planteamientos. Teniendo en cuenta que en el núcleo familiar primario se comparten experiencias sobre la enfer- medad, examinamos la relación entre las creencias disfuncionales que los progenitores y sus descendientes mantienen sobre la en- fermedad y los pensamientos, tales como la intolerancia a la incer- tidumbre y la sobreestimación de la amenaza, y las relac…

Error and Uncertainty Analysis of the Residual Stresses Computed by Using the Hole Drilling Method

2010

:  The hole-drilling method is one of the most used techniques for the experimental analysis of the residual stresses in mechanical components. For both through-thickness uniform and non-uniform residual stress distributions, its application is standardised by the ASTM E837-08. In accordance with the ASTM limitations, the analysis of uniform residual stresses, to which the present work deals with, leads in general to results with a maximum bias of about 10%. Unfortunately, in general the user does not have appropriate procedures to estimate the actual stress error; consequently, if one or more of the experimental influence parameters fall out of the corresponding standard limitations, the c…

A Multistep Methodology for the Evaluation of Human Resources Using the Evidence Theory

2013

Parameter Uncertainty in Shallow Rainfall-triggered Landslide Modeling at Basin Scale: A Probabilistic Approach

2014

Abstract This study proposes a methodology to account for the uncertainty of hydrological and mechanical parameters in coupled distributed hydrological-stability models for shallow landslide assessment. A probabilistic approach was implemented in an existing eco-hydrological and landslide model by randomizing soil cohesion, friction angle and soil retention parameters. The model estimates the probability of failure through an assumed theoretical Factor of Safety (FS) distribution, conditioned on soil moisture content. The time-dependent and spatially distributed FS statistics are approximated by the First Order Second Moment (FOSM) method. The model was applied to the Rio Mameyes Basin, loc…

Estimation of flood inundation probabilities using global hazard indexes based on hydrodynamic variables

2008

In this paper a new procedure to derive flood hazard maps incorporating uncertainty concepts is presented. The layout of the procedure can be resumed as follows: (1) stochastic input of flood hydrograph modelled through a direct Monte-Carlo simulation based on flood recorded data. Generation of flood peaks and flow volumes has been obtained via copulas, which describe and model the correlation between these two variables independently of the marginal laws involved. The shape of hydrograph has been generated on the basis of a historical significant flood events, via cluster analysis; (2) modelling of flood propagation using a hyperbolic finite element model based on the DSV equations; (3) de…

An urban drainage stormwater quality model: model development and uncertainty quantification

2010

Summary The evaluation of urban stormwater quality is of relevant importance for urban drainage, and mathematical models may be of great interest in this respect. To date, several detailed mathematical models are available to predict stormwater quantity–quality characteristics in urban drainage systems. However, only a few models take sewer sediments into account, considering their cohesive-like properties that influence the build-up process of the pollutant load. Furthermore, the model data requirements, especially for the quality aspects, are extensive, which limit their applicability and affect model results with large uncertainty. Uncertainty analysis provides a measure or index regardi…