Learning about Dynamic Problems with Computer Simulators: A Case of System Dynamics Simulation Models

A vast body of research shows that people by and large fail to understand and manage dynamic environments. Given the increasing complexity of our world, there is an urgent need to develop more effective ways to present dynamic problems. Many studies propose computer simulators as virtual learning environments to help people understand and manage complex problems. Still, experimental data show that simulators often carry problems from reality into the virtual laboratory. An analysis from the perspective of cognitive load theory suggests that learning about complex problems could be improved by enhancing descriptions with simulation elements that would facilitate interactive exploration of th…

Deep-learning based reconstruction of the shower maximum X max using the water-Cherenkov detectors of the Pierre Auger Observatory

The atmospheric depth of the air shower maximum $X_{\mathrm{max}}$ is an observable commonly used for the determination of the nuclear mass composition of ultra-high energy cosmic rays. Direct measurements of $X_{\mathrm{max}}$ are performed using observations of the longitudinal shower development with fluorescence telescopes. At the same time, several methods have been proposed for an indirect estimation of $X_{\mathrm{max}}$ from the characteristics of the shower particles registered with surface detector arrays. In this paper, we present a deep neural network (DNN) for the estimation of $X_{\mathrm{max}}$. The reconstruction relies on the signals induced by shower particles in the groun…

Publish-subscribe smartphone sensing platform for the acute phase of a disaster: A framework for emergency management support

The advanced sensors embedded in modern smartphones opens up for novel research opportunities, as for instance manifested in the field of mobile phone sensing. Most notable is perhaps research activities within human activity recognition and context-aware applications. Along a similar vein, the SmartRescue project targets monitoring of both hazard developments as well as tracking of people in a disaster, taking advantage of smartphone sensing, processing and communication capabilities. The goal is to help crisis managers and the public in early hazard detection, hazard prediction, and in the forming of risk minimizing evacuation plans when disaster strikes. In this paper we propose a novel …

The Development of Resilience Management Guidelines to Protect Critical Infrastructures in Europe

The capability to be resilient in the face of crises and disasters is a topic of highest political concern in Europe especially as far as critical infrastructures and urban environments are concerned. Critical infrastructures are systems or part of systems essential for the maintenance of vital societal functions, the disruption or destruction of which would have a significant impact on the well-being of people. Examples of them are transportation services, energy infrastructures, water and wastewater systems, health and emergency services, financial services, communication infrastructures, etc. The symposium focuses on the experience of four different projects funded under the Horizon 2020…

Introduction to the Resilience Against Crises and Disasters Minitrack

Crowd Models for Emergency Evacuation: A Review Targeting Human-Centered Sensing

Emergency evacuation of crowds is a fascinating phenomenon that has attracted researchers from various fields. Better understanding of this class of crowd behavior opens up for improving evacuation policies and smarter design of buildings, increasing safety. Recently, a new class of disruptive technology has appeared: Human-centered sensing which allows crowd behavior to be monitored in real-time, and provides the basis for real-time crowd control. The question then becomes: to what degree can previous crowd models incorporate this development, and what areas need further research? In this paper, we provide a survey that describes some widely used crowd models and discuss their advantages a…

Emergent vulnerabilities in Integrated Operations: A proactive simulation study of economic risk

Abstract The protection of critical infrastructure requires an understanding of the effects of change on current and future safety and operations. Vulnerabilities may emerge during the rollout of updated techniques and integration of new technology with existing work practices. Managers need to understand how their decisions, often focused on economic priorities, affect the dynamics of vulnerability over time. Such understanding is difficult to obtain, as the historical data typically used for decision support, prediction and forecasting may not be available. We report on the use of group model building and simulation to consider proactively the effects of a 10-year, multi-billion dollar mo…

Vulnerability Black Markets: Empirical Evidence and Scenario Simulation

This paper discusses the manifest characteristics of online Vulnerability Black Markets (VBM), insider actors, interactions and mechanisms, obtained from masked observation. Because VBM transactions are hidden from general view, we trace their precursors as secondary evidence of their development and activity. More general attributes of VBMs and the exploits they discuss are identified. Finally, we introduce a simulation model that captures how vulnerability discoveries may be placed in a dual legal-black market context. We perform simulations and find that if legal markets expose vulnerabilities that go unresolved, the security and quality of software may suffer more than in the absence of…

Managing information security risks during new technology adoption

Author's version of an article in the journal: Computers and Security. Also available from the publisher at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cose.2012.09.001 In the present study, we draw on previous system dynamics research on operational transition and change of vulnerability to investigate the role of incident response capability in controlling the severity of incidents during the adoption of new technology. Toward this end, we build a system dynamics model using the Norwegian Oil and Gas Industry as the context. The Norwegian Oil and Gas Industry has started to adopt new information communication technology to connect its offshore platforms, onshore control centers, and suppliers. In oil co…

Proper Incentives for Proper IT Security Management _ A System Dynamics Approach

A Spatio-temporal Probabilistic Model of Hazard and Crowd Dynamics in Disasters for Evacuation Planning

Published version of a chapter in the book: Recent Trends in Applied Artificial Intelligence. Also available from the publisher at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-38577-3_7 Managing the uncertainties that arise in disasters – such as ship fire – can be extremely challenging. Previous work has typically focused either on modeling crowd behavior or hazard dynamics, targeting fully known environments. However, when a disaster strikes, uncertainty about the nature, extent and further development of the hazard is the rule rather than the exception. Additionally, crowd and hazard dynamics are both intertwined and uncertain, making evacuation planning extremely difficult. To address this chal…

Group model building: a collaborative modelling methodology applied to critical infrastructure protection

Large crises management, affecting CIs needs multidisciplinary knowledge including technical, economical, social, political, legal and managerial knowledge. Being these crises international a huge variety of agents is involved in their response. This situation concludes in a set of stakeholders who only have fragmented knowledge. In the presence of dispersed and incomplete knowledge, and of fragmented and disrupted crisis management, the collaborative approach group model building (GMB), where modelling experts unify fragmented, tacit knowledge from domain experts, is a valuable option. However, GMB has been little used in CIP. We have done so in the context a European project on crisis man…

Insights from a Computer Simulation Model of a Landslide Disaster

Disasters do not follow scripts and the management of disasters requires that responders act as "emergent organizations". We argue that a computer simulation model of the management of a major landslide suggests a disequilibrium-experimenting-emergence process in terms of feedback loops (Performance adjustment, Cognitive load causes errors, Communication mismatch causes errors, and Learning). Arguably, improvement of the drivers of such feedback could help improve the management of disasters.

Introduction to the communication and information systems technology for emergency management minitrack

The world spends annually between 16 and 23 billion US dollars in disaster assistance. In 2010 an estimated 373 natural disasters occurred, causing 296, 800 victims and affecting more than 207 million people. By 2050 the number of people living in areas especially prone to natural disasters will probably double (from 680 to 1500 million). Communication and Information System Technology is profoundly changing the management of disasters and emergencies. Mobile devices and social media are being used by citizens in innovative ways to help them manage the consequences of disasters for themselves, families, and communities. The trend of increasing traffic flow originating from affected citizens…

Comparing Different Crowd Emergency Evacuation Models Based on Human Centered Sensing Criteria

Emergency evacuation of crowds is a fascinating phenomenon that has attracted researchers from various fields. Better understanding of this class of crowd behavior opens up for improving evacuation policies and smarter design of buildings, increasing safety. Recently, a new class of disruptive technology has appeared: Human-centered sensing which allows crowd behavior to be monitored in real-time, and provides the basis for real-time crowd control. The question then becomes: to what degree can previous crowd models incorporate this development, and what areas need further research? In this paper, the authors provide a survey that describes some widely used crowd models and discuss the advan…

Sensitivity of the Cherenkov Telescope Array for probing cosmology and fundamental physics with gamma-ray propagation

Full list of authors: Abdalla, H.; Abe, H.; Acero, F.; Acharyya, A.; Adam, R.; Agudo, I; Aguirre-Santaella, A.; Alfaro, R.; Alfaro, J.; Alispach, C.; Aloisio, R.; Batista, R. Alves; Amati, L.; Amato, E.; Ambrosi, G.; Anguner, E. O.; Araudo, A.; Armstrong, T.; Arqueros, F.; Arrabito, L.; Asano, K.; Ascasibar, Y.; Ashley, M.; Backes, M.; Balazs, C.; Balbo, M.; Balmaverde, B.; Baquero Larriva, A.; Martins, V. Barbosa; Barkov, M.; Baroncelli, L.; de Almeida, U. Barres; Barrio, J. A.; Batista, P-, I; Becerra Gonzalez, J.; Becherini, Y.; Beck, G.; Tjus, J. Becker; Belmont, R.; Benbow, W.; Bernardini, E.; Berti, A.; Berton, M.; Bertucci, B.; Beshley, V; Bi, B.; Biasuzzi, B.; Biland, A.; Bissaldi, …

Introduction to ICT-Enabled Crisis, Disaster and Catastrophe Management Minitrack

This HICSS-47 Minitrack Introduction introduces the four papers accepted by the ICT-enabled Crisis, Disaster a Catastrophe Management Minitrack within the HICSS E-Government Track.

Understanding the Importance of Proper Incentives for Critical Infrastructures Management – How System Dynamics Can Help

International audience; Computer and information systems are now at the core of numerous critical infrastructures. However, their security management is by far not a trivial issue. Further, these systems, by their very nature, belong to the domain of complex systems, where system dynamics (SD) is an established method, which aims at modelling such systems, their analysis and understanding. Further, on this basis it enables simulation of various policies to properly manage complex systems. More precisely, through understanding of the basic elements of the whole mosaic and their interplay, proper incentives can be tested. And this is important, because proper incentives can lead to the desire…

Managing Emerging Information Security Risks during Transitions to Integrated Operations

Paper presented at the 2010 43rd Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences (HICSS). (c) 2010 IEEE. Personal use of this material is permitted. Permission from IEEE must be obtained for all other users, including reprinting/ republishing this material for advertising or promotional purposes, creating new collective works for resale or redistribution to servers or lists, or reuse of any copyrighted components of this work in other works. Paper also available from the publisher: http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/HICSS.2010.260 The Norwegian Oil and Gas Industry is adopting new information communication technology to connect its offshore platforms, onshore control centers and the suppliers. Th…

Improving the Crisis to Crisis Learning Process

While crises may appear to be event-driven, post-mortem accounts often identify factors that accumulate over time and increase the likelihood of failure. These factors are particularly difficult to anticipate when multiple organizations are involved in crisis preparation and event detection. Through the development of a systems-based model of crisis management, it was learned that knowledge sharing can be accelerated or inhibited by the development of trust among organizations through the management of events. Is it possible to operationalize this finding? This hypothesis is one of the findings of the SEMPOC project, which examined crisis preparation and mitigation in the hypothetical conte…

THE ROLE OF EHEALTH IN DISASTERS: A STRATEGY FOR EDUCATION, TRAINING AND INTEGRATION IN DISASTER MEDICINE

International audience; This paper describes the origins and progress of an international project to advance disaster eHealth (DEH)-the application of eHealth technologies to enhance the delivery of healthcare in disasters. The study to date has focused on two major themes; the role of DEH in facilitating inter-agency communication in disaster situations, and the fundamental need to promote awareness of DEH in the education of disaster managers and health professionals. The paper deals mainly with ongoing research on the second of these themes, surveying the current provision of disaster medicine education, the design considerations for a DEH programme for health professionals, the key curr…

Analyzing Cascading Effects in Interdependent Critical Infrastructures

International audience; Critical Infrastructures (CIs) are resources that are essential for the performance of society, including its economy and its security. Large-scale disasters, whether natural or man-made, can have devastating primary (direct) effects on some CI and significant indirect effects (cascading effects) on other CIs, because CIs are interconnected and depend on each other’s services. Recent work by Laugé et al. expressed the dependency values among CIs as dependency matrices for various durations of the primary CI failure. For better preparedness and mitigation of CI failures knowledge of the weak points in CI interdependencies is crucial. To this effect, we have developed …

Disaster E-Health Framework for Community Resilience

Environmental Management Maturity: The Role of Dynamic Validation

Maturity models enhance the performance of companies by prescribing a trajectory through stages of increasing capability. However, a recent review of maturity models concludes that current maturity models hardly meet the design principles required for prescriptive use. To address this deficiency, we conducted semistructured interviews and a Group Model Building study with industrial companies in Spain in which we studied the progression toward a Leading Green Company as the highest maturity stage of environmental management. The findings from the study were tested using surveys with enterprises in Spain, Italy, and the United Kingdom, semistructured interviews in the United Kingdom and cas…

Introduction to the Minitrack on Government and Disaster Resilience

Dynamic Modeling of the Cyber Security Threat Problem

This chapter discusses the possible growth of black markets (BMs) for software vulnerabilities and factors affecting their spread. It is difficult to collect statistics about BMs for vulnerabilities and their associated transactions, as they are hidden from general view. We conduct a disguised observation of online BM trading sites to identify causal models of the ongoing viability of BMs. Our observation results are expressed as a system dynamic model. We implement simulations to observe the effects of possible actions to disrupt BMs. The results suggest that without interventions the number and size of BMs is likely to increase. A simulation scenario with a policy to halt BM operations re…

Exploring Collaborative Modeling as Teaching Method

Group Model Building (GMB) often refers to collaborative system dynamics (SD) modeling. Despite its impressive success in various interdisciplinary domains, SD still struggles to be adopted as a mainstream method in the very areas where it has proven its worth. SD is hard to learn, and acquiring modeling skills can take long time. SD is mostly taught in modeling courses with examples from various disciplines, in a non-collaborative way. Learning SD modeling as a "byproduct" in courses (like ICT, security, industrial management) and in collaborative way would seem at the outset a losing proposition. Experiences with an approach using a project-oriented approach adapting ideas and exercises f…

A Bayesian network model for evacuation time analysis during a ship fire

We present an evacuation model for ships while a fire happens onboard. The model is designed by utilizing Bayesian networks (BN) and then simulated in GeNIe software. In our proposed model, the most important factors that have significant influence on a rescue process and evacuation time are identified and analyzed. By applying the probability distribution of the considered factors collected from the literature including IMO, real empirical data and practical experiences, the trend of the rescue process and evacuation time can be evaluated and predicted using the proposed model. The results of this paper help understanding about possible consequences of influential factors on the security o…

Extraction of the Muon Signals Recorded with the Surface Detector of the Pierre Auger Observatory Using Recurrent Neural Networks

The Pierre Auger Observatory, at present the largest cosmic-ray observatory ever built, is instrumented with a ground array of 1600 water-Cherenkov detectors, known as the Surface Detector (SD). The SD samples the secondary particle content (mostly photons, electrons, positrons and muons) of extensive air showers initiated by cosmic rays with energies ranging from $10^{17}~$eV up to more than $10^{20}~$eV. Measuring the independent contribution of the muon component to the total registered signal is crucial to enhance the capability of the Observatory to estimate the mass of the cosmic rays on an event-by-event basis. However, with the current design of the SD, it is difficult to straightfo…

Insights from a Simulation Model of Disaster Response: Generalization and Action Points

In a prior paper we presented a system dynamics model that simulates responder behavior in a Norwegian landslide. The model shows how a set of vicious feedback loops caused by following standard organizational procedures that do not fit the disaster situation initially increases errors in response. Eventually learning and sensemaking in an improvisation/experimentation process leads to new emergent dynamics whereby the loops act virtuously. In this paper we aim to generalize this initial study by explaining in more detail how the model can describe large scale disaster responses of different types and how it relates to the wider disaster response literature. We discuss what types of levers,…

Introduction to Communication and Information Systems Technology for Crisis and Disaster Management Minitrack

International audience

Using Dynamic Stories to Communicate Security and Safety Issues

System dynamics (SD) models contain valuable insights on complex organizational issues that develop over time. However, for non-experts such models can be complex and difficult to understand. We propose Dynamic Stories, a methodology that uses storytelling, to rephrase expert terminology in simpler to understand action terms, thus overcoming knowledge transfer problems. To show the feasibility of the approach, we present our methodological framework.

Towards an integrated approach to emergency management: interdisciplinary challenges for research and practice

This article presents an interdisciplinary vision for large-scale integrated emergency management that has been inspired by the transition from platform centric to integrated operations in the oil and gas fields, which uses remote emergency control centres collaborating virtually with local responders. The article discusses some of the most salient research challenges for integrated emergency management, including the role of mobile technology, human-centred sensing, citizen participation and social media, and the socio-cultural determinants of disaster management. The purpose of this article is to frame an integrated emergency management approach that adopts a multi-disciplinary approach, …

Vulnerability Analysis of Interdependent Critical Infrastructures upon a Cyber-attack

Introduction to Emerging Risks and Systemic Concerns in Information Security Research and Applications Minitrack

Implementation Methodology of the Resilience Framework

Failure of Critical Infrastructures (CIs) can have severe consequences for our societies. Therefore, CI resilience has attracted increasing attention in industries and policy-making. However, empirical studies on CI resilience are rare. In particular, research on the implementation of policies aiming at an improvement of CI resilience is lacking. Using Group Model Building combined with the Delphi method, and surveys we have developed a framework to improve CI resilience. This research identifies policies to enhance CI resilience against major industrial accidents across four dimensions (technical, organizational, economic and social) and proposes a temporal order to ensure that the benefit…