A mechanistic approach reveals non linear effects of climate warming on mussels throughout the Mediterranean sea
There is a dire need to forecast the ecological impacts of global climate change at scales relevant to policy and management. We used three interconnected models (climatic, biophysical and energetics) to estimate changes in growth, reproduction and mortality risk by 2050, for three commercially and ecologically important bivalves at 51 sites in the Mediterranean Sea. These results predict highly variable responses (both positive and negative) in the time to reproductive maturity and in the risk of lethality among species and sites that do not conform to simple latitudinal gradients, and which would be undetectable by methods focused only on lethal limits and/or range boundaries.
Moving Toward a Strategy for Addressing Climate Displacement of Marine Resources: A Proof-of-Concept
Realistic predictions of climate change effects on natural resources are central to adaptation policies that try to reduce these impacts. However, most current forecasting approaches do not incorporate species-specific, process-based biological information, which limits their ability to inform actionable strategies. Mechanistic approaches, incorporating quantitative information on functional traits, can potentially predict species- and population-specific responses that result from the cumulative impacts of small-scale processes acting at the organismal level, and can be used to infer population-level dynamics and inform natural resources management. Here we present a proof-of-concept study…
The impact of climate change on Mediterranean intertidal communities: losses in coastal ecosystem integrity and services
As has been shown for other ecosystems, the ecological and socio-economic impacts of climate change on Mediterranean intertidal habitats are highly variable in space and time. We conducted field and laboratory measurements of cellular, ecophysiological and behavioural responses of selected intertidal invertebrates (mussels, gastropods and sponges) and completed a literature review to determine what is known of socioeconomic consequences of these biological changes. Results suggest significant gaps in our knowledge that may impede a complete understanding of likely impacts (physical, biological, and socioeconomic) and that sufficient data for such an analysis is available only for mussels. A…
An improved noninvasive method for measuring heartbeat of intertidal animals
Since its emergence two decades ago, the use of infrared technology for noninvasively measuring the heartbeat rates of invertebrates has provided valuable insight into the physiology and ecology of intertidal organisms. During that time period, the hardware needed for this method has been adapted to currently available electronic components, making the original published description obsolete. This article reviews the history of heartbeat sensing technology, and describes the design and function of a modern and simplified infrared heartbeat rate sensing system compatible with many intertidal and marine invertebrates. This technique overcomes drawbacks and obstacles encountered with previous …
Combining heat-transfer and energy budget models to predict thermal stress in Mediterranean intertidal mussels
Recent studies have emphasised that organisms can experience physiological stress well within their geographic range limits. Developing methods for mechanistically predicting the presence, absence and physiological performance of organisms is therefore important because of the ongoing effects of climate change. In this study, we merged a biophysical–ecological (BE) model that estimates the aquatic (high tide) and aerial (low tide) body temperatures of Mytilus galloprovincialis with a Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) model to predict growth, reproduction and mortality of this Mediterranean mussel in both intertidal and subtidal environments. Using weather and chlorophyll-a data from three Mediter…
Conceptualizing ecosystem tipping points within a physiological framework
Connecting the nonlinear and often counterintuitive physiological effects of multiple environmental drivers to the emergent impacts on ecosystems is a fundamental challenge. Unfortunately, the disconnect between the way “stressors” (e.g., warming) is considered in organismal (physiological) and ecological (community) contexts continues to hamper progress. Environmental drivers typically elicit biphasic physiological responses, where performance declines at levels above and below some optimum. It is also well understood that species exhibit highly variable response surfaces to these changes so that the optimum level of any environmental driver can vary among interacting species. Thus, specie…
The aquaculture supply chain in the time of covid-19 pandemic: Vulnerability, resilience, solutions and priorities at the global scale
13 pages, 3 tables, 5 figures
Predicting biological invasions in marine habitats through eco-physiological mechanistic models: a case study with the bivalveBrachidontes pharaonis
Aim We used a coupled biophysical ecology (BE)-physiological mechanistic modelling approach based on the Dynamic Energy Budget theory (DEB, Dynamic energy budget theory for metabolic organisation, 2010, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge; DEB) to generate spatially explicit predictions of physiological performance (maximal size and reproductive output) for the invasive mussel, Brachidontes pharaonis. Location We examined 26 sites throughout the central Mediterranean Sea. Methods We ran models under subtidal and intertidal conditions; hourly weather and water temperature data were obtained from the Italian Buoy Network, and monthly CHL-a data were obtained from satellite imagery. Results …
Evenness, biodiversity, and ecosystem function of intertidal communities along the Italian coasts: Experimental short-term response to ambient and extreme air temperatures
Biodiversity can promote ecosystem functioning in both terrestrial and marine environments, emphasizing the neces- sity ofbiodiversity conservation in order to preserve critical ecosystem functions and associated services. However, the role of biodiversity in buffering ecosystem functioning under extreme events caused by climate change remains a major scientific issue, especially for intertidal systems experiencing stressors from both terrestrial and marine drivers. We performed a regional-scale field experiment along the Italian coast to investigate the response of unmanipulated intertidal communities (by using a natural biodiversity gradient) to low tide aerial exposure to both ambient an…
Biological traits, geographic distributions, and species conservation in aquatic ecosystems
Aquatic ecosystems (both marine and freshwater) have long served as model systems for exploring the role of environmental stressors on organismal performance and survival, the biogeographic distributions of populations and species, and ultimately the diversity, functioning, and stability of ecosystems (Adams, 2002; Forbes, 1887; MacArthur & Wilson, 2001; Paine, 1969; Somero et al., 2017 ). Climate change, alien species invasions, land use change, urbaniza-tion, and other anthropogenic impacts have all been demonstrated to impair aquatic ecosystems at multiple levels of biological orga-nization within aquatic ecosystems (Karr, 1991; Doney et al., 2012; Harley et al., 2006; Poloczanska et…
Dynamic Energy Budget model parameter estimation for the bivalve Mytilus californianus: Application of the covariation method
Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) models serve as a powerful tool for describing the flow of energy through organisms from assimilation of food to utilization for maintenance, growth and reproduction. The DEB theory has been successfully applied to several bivalve species to compare bioenergetic and physiological strategies for the utilization of energy. In particular, mussels within the Mytilus edulis complex (M. edulis, M. galloprovincialis, and M. trossulus) have been the focus of many studies due to their economic and ecological importance, and their worldwide distribution. However, DEB parameter values have never been estimated for Mytilus californianus, a species that is an ecological domin…
How ocean acidification can benefit calcifiers.
Reduction in seawater pH due to rising levels of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) in the world's oceans is a major force set to shape the future of marine ecosystems and the ecological services they provide [1,2]. In particular, ocean acidification is predicted to have a detrimental effect on the physiology of calcifying organisms [3]. Yet, the indirect effects of ocean acidification on calcifying organisms, which may counter or exacerbate direct effects, is uncertain. Using volcanic CO2 vents, we tested the indirect effects of ocean acidification on a calcifying herbivore (gastropod) within the natural complexity of an ecological system. Contrary to predictions, the abundance of this cal…
The Synergistic Impacts of Anthropogenic Stressors and COVID-19 on Aquaculture: A Current Global Perspective
13 pages, 6 figures, 2 tables.-- This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives License
The duality of ocean acidification as a resource and a stressor
Ecologically dominant species often define ecosystem states, but as human disturbances intensify, their subordinate counterparts increasingly displace them. We consider the duality of disturbance by examining how environmental drivers can simultaneously act as a stressor to dominant species and as a resource to subordinates. Using a model ecosystem, we demonstrate that CO2-driven interactions between species can account for such reversals in dominance; i.e., the displacement of dominants (kelp forests) by subordinates (turf algae). We established that CO2 enrichment had a direct positive effect on productivity of turfs, but a negligible effect on kelp. CO2 enrichment further suppressed the …
Predicting patterns of stress and mortality in intertidal invertebrates: applications of biophysical ecology in a changing world
Abstract Background , Questions and Methods Recent studies have emphasized that local and geographic patterns of species distributions can be set by a variety of factors related to weather and climate, including exposure to lethal environmental conditions, indirect effects on consumers and competitors, and sublethal effects of physiological stress on growth and reproduction. Predicting where, when and with what magnitude these impacts are most (and least) likely to occur is imperative if we are to effectively plan for (i.e. adapt to) the effects of climate change.We developed a series of methods for translating patterns of environmental “signals” into organismal responses in intertidal ecos…
Testing the effects of temporal data resolution on predictions of the effects of climate change on bivalves
a b s t r a c t The spatial-temporal scales on which environmental observations are made can significantly affect our perceptions of ecological patterns in nature. Understanding potential mismatches between environmen- tal data used as inputs to predictive models, and the forecasts of ecological responses that these models generate are particularly difficult when predicting responses to climate change since the assumption of model stationarity in time cannot be tested. In the last four decades, increases in computational capacity (by a factor of a million), and the evolution of new modeling tools, have permitted a corresponding increase in model complexity, in the length of the simulations,…
A bioenergetics framework for integrating the effects of multiple stressors: Opening a 'black box' in climate change research
Climate change is already impacting marine ecosystems across a range of scales, from individual physiology, to changes in species interactions and community structure, and ultimately to patterns in geographic distribution. Predicting how marine ecosystems will respond to environmental change is a signifi cant challenge because vulnerability to climatic and non-climatic stressors is highly variable, and depends on an organism’s functional traits, tolerance to stressors, and the environment in which it lives. We present a mechanistic approach based on biophysical and dynamic energy budget models that integrates the cumulative effects of multiple environmental stressors (temperature and food) …