SIMULATING DEMOGRAPHY AND HUMAN DEVELOPMENT DYNAMICS

[EN] A deterministic/stochastic model in which the demographic and the well-being subsystems of a country are involved and related is presented as a way to approach human development. The demographic subsystem is a side-by-side, single-gender, age-structured population dynamic model. The well-being subsystem states the dynamics of the United Nations Hybrid Human Development Index. The model has been validated in the case of Spain and Belgium. Some simulations have been performed with the model for the case of Spain in the 2009-2020 period to determine strategies and scenarios that could increase the life expectancy at birth per gender. Copyright © 2014 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.

A Side-by-Side Single Sex Age-Structured Human Population Dynamic Model: Exact Solution and Model Validation

A side-by-side single sex age-structured population dynamic model is presented in this paper. The model consists of two coupled von Foerster-McKendrick-type quasi-linear partial differential equations, two initial conditions, and two boundary conditions. The state variables of the model are male and female population densities. The solutions of these partial differential equations provide explicit time and age dependence of the variables. The initial conditions define the male and female population densities at the initial time, while the boundary conditions compute the male and female births at zero-age by using fertility rates. The assumptions of the nontime-dependence of the death and fe…

Advances in the general factor of personality dynamics

This paper presents a dynamical integro-differential equation to reproduce the dynamical response of the General Factor of Personality (GFP) to a stimulus dose, particularly to a stimulant drug dose. The model is called in the past authors publications as response model. We refer to it as the old response model, due to a new response model presented here that solves partially the problem of the model validation: how to forecast the GFP dynamical response from a previous model calibration. The application case presented is an individual ABC experimental design where the stimulus used is methylphenidate.      

Space‐time dynamical models

Purpose – The purpose is to present a new formal approach based on a partial integro‐differential equation, the space‐time state transition equation (STSTE), and on a set of general equations with which space‐time dynamical models of complex systems, such as social systems and ecosystems, can be built.Design/methodology/approach – The STSTE provides the partial derivative of the density of a state‐variable with regard to time as a sum of time rates and space‐time rates. Time rates describe the dynamics of the system for each space‐point irrespectively of the other points, whilst space‐time rates describe this evolution as a consequence of the relation of each space‐point with a given set of…

El origen de los trastornos mentales: un nuevo enfoque desde el estudio de la dinámica de la personalidad

[EN] There is a growing consensus in the mental health sciences (psychology, psychiatry) that there is no clear dividing line between "normal" personality and "abnormal" personality or mental disorders. In fact, basic personality traits predispose or overlap with clinical mental disorders. For example, Neuroticism, as a factor that predisposes to neurosis, predisposes to suffer from anxiety, depression and obsessive disorders. This question serves to present a summary of the work of our group (Antonio Caselles, Joan C. Micó and Salvador Amigó) and to point out future research. Thus, after reviewing our studies on the dynamics of the General Personality Factor (FGP) and its biological substr…

A genetic algorithm to calibrate dynamical systems: Confidence intervals for parameters and residuals

This paper presents a genetic algorithm to calibrate dynamical systems that is able to calculate confidence intervals for the parameters of the system. As an application case is used to calibrate the system that reproduces the dynamical response of the General Factor of Personality (GFP) to a given stimulus, particularly to a stimulant drug dose. The model is called in Literature as the response model and includes an integro-differential equation. The presented application case is a single case ABC experimental design where the stimulus is methylphenidate.

A stochastic dynamic model to evaluate the influence of economy and well-being on unemployment control

[EN] This paper presents a stochastic dynamic mathematical model to study the evolution of the unemployment rate and other relevant related variables in a country. This model is composed by three basic interrelated subsystems: demographic, economic and wellbeing ones. A key aspect of this model is that it considers three UN well-being variables simultaneously: Human Development Index, Gender Empowerment Index and Gender Differentiation Index. These variables involve key concepts for human development, as Health, Education, Economy and Female Labor. With this model, the most outstanding variables found in the literature in relation with unemployment control can be used to design strategies a…

Chanching the externalizing and internalizing spectrum of personality with self-regultaion therapy

This article presents an integrator model of changes in the externalizing and internalizing factors of personality grouped in the General Factor of Personality (GFP), based on the Unique Trait Personality Theory (UTPT) [1]. This theory proposes that a continuum exists between personality and psychopathology, as well as the existence of a GFP that occupies the apex of the hierarchy of personality, and extends from an impulsiveness-and-aggressiveness pole (externalizing spectrum) to an anxiety-and-introversion pole (internalizing spectrum). With an experimental intra-group design, 30 regular users of stimulant drugs (cocaine and amphetamine) used the Self-Regulation Therapy (SRT). The SRT is …

Including an environmental quality index in a demographic model

This paper presents a new well-being index which allows environmental quality to be measured through CO2 emissions, renewable energies and nuclear power. Its formula derives from a geometric mean used to calculate which things in the human production system warm the planet and which do not. This index has been introduced into a gender-defined stochastic population dynamic mathematical model which measures well-being in a country. The main variables in this model are rates of death, birth, emigration and immigration, as well as three UN indices: Human Development Index, Gender Development Index and Gender Empowerment Index. This model has been extended with variables that allow an environmen…

Energy and Personality: A Bridge between Physics and Psychology

[EN] The objective of this paper is to present a mathematical formalism that states a bridge between physics and psychology, concretely between analytical dynamics and personality theory, in order to open new insights in this theory. In this formalism, energy plays a central role. First, the short-term personality dynamics can be measured by the General Factor of Personality (GFP) response to an arbitrary stimulus. This GFP dynamical response is modeled by a stimulus¿response model: an integro-differential equation. The bridge between physics and psychology appears when the stimulus¿response model can be formulated as a linear second order differential equation and, subsequently, reformulat…

A personality mathematical model of placebo with or without deception: an application of the Self-Regulation Therapy

A Methodology for Modeling and Optimizing Social Systems

[EN] A system methodology for modeling and optimizing social systems is presented. It allows constructing dynamical models formulated stochastically, i.e., their results are given by confidence intervals. The models provide optimal intervention ways to reach the stated objectives. Two optimization methods are used: (1) to test strategies and scenarios and (2) to optimize with a genetic algorithm. The application case presented is a small nonformal education Spanish business. First, the model is validated in the 2008-2012 period, and subsequently, the optimal way to obtain a maximum profit in the 2013-2025 period is obtained using the two methods.

A stochastic dynamical social model involving a human happiness index

[EN] This paper presents a new human happiness index built through five dimensions: development, freedom, solidarity, justice and peace. These five dimensions are evaluated through quantitative variables obtained from the Human Development Reports, World Data Bank and Eurostat. The new happiness index has been built following the guidelines set by the Human Development Reports of the UN for the construction of quality indices, and it has been compared on a set of 13 EU countries with the Overall Life Satisfaction Index, which is used by the UN. Moreover, the new index has been included in a dynamic mathematical model through the demographic rates to study the evolution of the population. Th…

A Mathematical Approach to the Body-Mind Problem from a System Personality Theory (A Systems Approach to the Body-Mind Problem)

The dynamics of both the General Factor of Personality and the personality biological indicators, as a consequence of a stimulus, can be described with a short-term dynamic model (the response model). The invariance of the response model at both levels of description (psychological and biological) leads to deduce the bridge model with which psychological and biological levels of description can be related. The bridge model is the key tool to deal with the body–mind problem. An application case is presented setting up an experimental design with two subjects. The General Factor of Personality, c-fos and glutamate dynamics are evaluated as a consequence of a methylphenidate dose intake. The r…

A Stochastic Model for Population and Well-Being Dynamics

This article presents a stochastic dynamic model to study the demographic evolution per sexes and the corresponding well-being of a general human population. The main model variables are population per sexes and well-being. The considered well-being variable is the Gender-Related Development Index (GDI), a United Nations index. The model's objectives are to improve future well-being and to reach a stable population in a country. The application case consists of adapting, validating, and using the model for Spain in the 2000–2006 period. Some instance strategies have been tested in different scenarios for the 2006–2015 period to meet these objectives by calculating the reliability of the res…

Dynamics of the General Factor of Personality in Response to a Single Dose of Caffeine

General Factor of Personality (GFP) research is an emergent field in personality research. This paper uses a theoretical mathematical model to predict the short-term effects of a dose of a stimulant drug on GFP and reports the results of an experiment showing how caffeine achieves this. This study considers the General Factor of Personality Questionnaire (GFPQ) a good psychometric approach to assess GFP. The GFP dynamic mechanism of change is based on the Unique Trait Personality Theory (UTPT). This theory proposes the existence of GFP which occupies the apex of the hierarchy of personality, and extends from an impulsiveness-and-aggressiveness pole (approach tendency) to an anxiety-andintro…

Changing the General Factor of Personality and the c-fos Gene Expression with Methylphenidate and Self-Regulation Therapy

[EN] A deepening in the biological nature of the general factor of personality (GFP) is suggested: the activation level of the stress system is here represented by the gene expression of c-fos. The results of a single case experimental design are reported. A model of four coupled differential equations that explains the human personality dynamics as a consequence of a single stimulant drug intake has been fitted to psychological and biological experimental data. The stimulant-drug conditioning and its adaptation to the considered mathematical model is also studied for both kinds of measures. The dynamics of the cfos expression presents a similar pattern to the dynamics of the psychological …

From the Big Five to the General Factor of Personality: a Dynamic Approach

AbstractAn integrating and dynamic model of personality that allows predicting the response of the basic factors of personality, such as the Big Five Factors (B5F) or the general factor of personality (GFP) to acute doses of drug is presented in this paper. Personality has a dynamic nature, i.e., as a consequence of a stimulus, the GFP dynamics as well as each one of the B5F of personality dynamics can be explained by the same model (a system of three coupled differential equations). From this invariance hypothesis, a partial differential equation, whose solution relates the GFP with each one of the B5F, is deduced. From this dynamic approach, a co-evolution of the GFP and each one of the B…

A dynamic extraversion model. The brain's response to a single dose of a stimulant drug.

The aim of this paper is to present a mathematical dynamic modelling of the effect a stimulant drug has on different people which, at the same time, can be a useful tool for future brain studies. To this end, a dynamic model of the evolution of extraversion (considering its tonic and phasic aspects) has been constructed taking into account the unique personality trait theory and the general modelling methodology. This model consists of a delayed differential equation which, on one hand, considers that the active stimulus, a consequence of a single intake, is not constant; on the other hand, it contemplates that the state variable representing the phasic extraversion also represents the brai…

Self-Regulation Therapy to Reproduce Drug Effects:A Suggestion Technique to Change Personality and theDRD3Gene Expression

This study proposes a strategy, based on self-regulation therapy, to change personality and its biological substrate, the DRD3 gene expression. It has been demonstrated that acute doses of stimulating drugs, like methylphenidate, are able to change personality and the expression of certain genes in the short term. On the other hand, self-regulation therapy has been proven to reproduce the effects of drugs. Thus, it is feasible to hope that self-regulation therapy is equally effective as methylphenidate in changing personality and the gene expression. This is a preliminary study with a single-case experimental design with replication in which 2 subjects participated. The results and potentia…

General Factor of Personality Questionnaire (GFPQ): Only one Factor to Understand Personality?

This study proposes a psychometric approach to assess the General Factor of Personality (GFP) to explain the whole personality. This approach defends the existence of one basic factor that represents the overall personality. The General Factor of Personality Questionnaire (GFPQ) is presented to measure the basic, combined trait of the complete personality. The questionnaire includes 20 items and is constituted by two scales with 10 items each one: the Extraversion Scale (ES) and the Introversion Scale (IS). The GFPQ shows adequate internal consistency and construct validity, while the relationships with the personality factors of other models and with psychopathology are as expected. It cor…

Dynamics of the general factor of personality: A predictor mathematical tool of alcohol misuse

[EN] There are few studies developed about the general factor of personality (GFP) dynamics. This paper uses a dynamical mathematical model, the response model, to predict the short-term effects of a dose of alcohol on GFP and reports the results of an alcohol intake experiment. The GFP dynamical mechanism of change is based on the unique trait personality theory (UTPT). This theory proposes the existence of GFP, which occupies the apex of the hierarchy of personality. An experiment with 37 volunteers was performed. All the participants completed The five-adjective scale of the general factor of personality (GFP-FAS) in trait-format (GFP-T) and state-format (GFP-S) before alcohol consumptio…

Age-Structured Human Population Dynamics

ABSTRACT A von Foerster-McKendrick model to study age-structured human population dynamics is presented in this paper. Forecasts of population density (population per age unit) depending on ages are possible using this model. The model consists of a quasi-linear first order partial differential equation for the dynamics of population density per age-unit (except for the zero-age), a boundary condition for the births flow at zero-age, and an initial condition for the population density at the initial instant. A general solution independent of the particular human-system under study is obtained based on some hypotheses about the mathematical structure of its input variables. The model has bee…

The body-mind problem from a personality relativity theory approach: (Relativity of personality)

The body-mind problem is here posed fromthe General Factor of Personality Theory and mathematically presented as a relativity theory: 1. A two-level-invariant model; 2. The transformation equation between both levels. On a hand, the investigation of personality dynamicsas a consequenceof a stimulant drug provides a system of two coupled differential equations, which adapts to both biological (body) and psychological (mind)levels ofdescription. On the other hand, a system of two coupled partial differential equations is here deduced as the transformation model between the biological and psychological levels. Both models are presented and validated in this paper. The experimental design to va…

Well-being and demographic dynamics

This paper presents a socio-demographic model defined by sexes and structured by age. The model is a von Foerster-McKendrick model for the dynamics of population by sex and age of a general human population. The fertility and deaths rates are structured by age and they depend on the well-being variable. The well-being variable is defined by UN, HDI-Hybrid. We present the validation of the stochastic formulation model from the case of Spain in the period 2003–2008.

Learning to be a psychostimulants addict with self-regulation therapy

This article presents the results of a single-case experiment of alternative treatments in which a participant applied the Self-Regulation Therapy (SRT) to reproduce the effects of a stimulant drug, methylphenidate, and a sedative, alcohol. The SRT is a learning procedure based on classic conditioning and suggestion that reproduces the effect of drugs by remembering the effects they have. The participant reproduced the effects of both drugs during ten sessions held on 5 consecutive days. To record effects, adjective scales were used that measured Drug effect, High, Rush, Energy, Tension and the General Factor of Personality (GFP). The results indicated that the participant was capable of in…

Development of the Happiness Index in a country

[EN] In this paper, a Happiness Index is built through the Human Dignity Respect Index which is explained by Author (2014). The index is created using three main values: development, freedom and equality. But the equality is explained by solidarity, justice and peace. Then, the Happiness Index is developed with this five concepts. The aim of this paper is to obtain the minimum quantitative variables to explain these values as well as to obtain a generic formula, which allows measuring the happiness of a country/region. The term “generic” is introduced because this formula could be extrapolated to any country. The variables to obtain the Development Index are health (Life Expectancy at birth…

Cocaine addiction and personality: a mathematical model.

The existence of a close relation between personality and drug consumption is recognized, but the corresponding causal connection is not well known. Neither is it well known whether personality exercises an influence predominantly at the beginning and development of addiction, nor whether drug consumption produces changes in personality. This paper presents a dynamic mathematical model of personality and addiction based on the unique personality trait theory (UPTT) and the general modelling methodology. This model attempts to integrate personality, the acute effect of drugs, and addiction. The UPTT states the existence of a unique trait of personality called extraversion, understood as a di…