0000000001000441
AUTHOR
ÁNgel Pardo Tornero
Intraday Price Dynamics between EUAs and CERs in the European Carbon Futures Market
We provide the first intraday analysis on the contribution to price discovery of two emissions carbon credits: European Union Allowances (EUAs) and Certified Emission Reductions (CERs). We find that EUAs lead price discovery but CERs play a growing role and, therefore, should not be ignored.
Major International Information Flows Across the Safex Wheat Market
Abstract We study information flows across four wheat futures markets on four continents: Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE), South African Futures Exchange (SAFEX), Euronext/Liffe and Kansas City Board of Trade (KCBT). Three approaches for studying information flows among non-synchronous markets are applied: cointegration techniques, vector autoregressive analysis and multiple regression proposed. Although comparable underlying assets are traded in the four markets, our results indicate that no long-run links exist among them. ZCE is by far the most endogenous market, and Euronext/Liffe is the most exogenous one. Finally, the model points to KCBT as the most influential and sensitive wheat…
On the hidden side of liquidity
This paper deals with the informativeness of iceberg orders, also known as hidden limit orders (HLOs). Namely, we analyze how the market reacts when the presence of hidden volume in the limit order book is revealed by the trading process. We use high frequency book and transaction data from the Spanish Stock Exchange, including a large sample of executed HLOs. We show that just when hidden volume is detected, traders on the opposite side of the market become more aggressive, exploiting the opportunity to consume more than expected at the best quotes. However, neither illiquidity nor volatility increases in the short-term. Furthermore, the detection of hidden volume has no relevant price imp…
Information Flows Across Wheat Futures Markets
We study information flows across four wheat futures markets on four continents: Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE), South African Futures Exchange (SAFEX), Euronext/Liffe, and Kansas City Board of Trade (KCBT). Three main approaches have been applied: cointegration techniques, VAR analysis, and a multiple regression model proposed by Peiro, Quesada, and Uriel (1998) to study information flows among non-synchronous markets. Our results indicate that no long-run links exist among the four markets, that ZCE is by far the most endogenous market, and that Euronext/Liffe is the most exogenous one. Furthermore, the model by Peiro et al. (1998) points to KCBT as the most influential as well as the…
Modeling the Probability of Informed Trading in the European Carbon Market
We provide evidence of informed trading in the European carbon market. We adapt Easley et al.’s (1996) PIN methodology to the particularities of this market by isolating the trading activity on the two carbon offsets: European Union Allowances (EUAs) and Certified Emission Reductions (CERs). We find that the PIN regularly increases before the publication of the yearly verified-emission reports. CERs exhibit lower average PIN than EUAs. While the PIN of CERs has increased over time, together with its share in total trading activity, EUAs’ PIN has remained pretty stable. Our findings suggest that CERs must not be avoided in any decision or analysis made by researchers, regulators or traders i…
Pre-holiday effect, large trades and small investor behaviour
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the existence of a pre-holiday effect in the most important stocks of the Spanish Stock Exchange which are also traded in both the New York Stock Exchange and the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. Our results show high abnormal returns on the trading day prior to holidays. Several tests prove that the Spanish holiday effect is not due to market calendars in the USA or Germany. Also, we prove that the pre-holiday effect is not a manifestation of other calendar anomalies. The study of different liquidity measures suggests that the pre-holiday effect could be due to the reluctance of small investors to buy on pre-holidays, which produces an increase in the a…
Assessing weather risk in sun and sand destinations
This paper studies the impact of climate change on the tourism demand in the Costa de Valencia (Spain) destination. This is a Mediterranean sun and sand destination whose main attraction is the climate. Weather data from 1937-2009 indicate a slow but steady increase in temperatures and a higher frequency of extreme weather events. The study of the effects of temperature on tourism shows that the number of both resident and non-resident tourists is positively related with the temperature. Furthermore, the number of stays of residents does not change in cold months but it increases in hot months, and the number of stays of non-residents decreases in cold months but it does not change in hot m…
CO2 Prices and Portfolio Management
Since January 2005, the attention on European carbon markets has been increasing and thus the interest in studying the implications of the existence of two new assets in portfolio management. In this article we analyse both the characteristics of the EUAs Phase I and Phase II as a sole investment and the impact of including these two assets, considered separately, in a well-diversified portfolio. In order to control the problems of using historical returns, we have performed this analysis using as expected returns either historical returns or risk-adjusted returns. We find that, although the weights of EUAs are not too important when incorporating the EUAs in an optimal and well-diversified…
Trading with Asymmetric Volatility Spillovers
: We study the profitability of trading strategies based on volatility spillovers between large and small firms. By using the Volatility Impulse-Response Function of Lin (1997) and its extensions, we detect that any volatility shock coming from small companies is important to large companies, but the reverse is only true for negative shocks coming from large firms. To exploit these asymmetric patterns in volatility, different trading rules are designed based on the inverse relationship existing between expected return and volatility. We find that most strategies generate excess after-transaction cost profits, especially after very bad news and very good news coming from large or small firm…
Influencia y sensibilidad de los mercados bursátiles europeos.
Este trabajo analiza las relaciones entre los mercados bursátiles europeos y los de Nueva York y Tokio, durante el período 1988-1998. La no coincidencia de los horarios de negociación entre estos mercados determina los resultados de los análisis de correlación y de regresión con rendimientos diarios de los índices bursátiles de cada mercado de valores. Con el fin de solucionar éste y otros inconvenientes se contrasta el modelo propuesto por Peiró et al. (1998), que permite distinguir entre la capacidad de influir de un mercado sobre otro y la sensibilidad de ser influido por el resto de los mercados. Los resultados, en moneda local, indican que el mercado más influyente es Nueva York, mient…
Spanish Stock Returns: Rational or Weather-Influenced?
Psychological studies support the existence of an influence of weather on mood. It could affect the behaviour of market traders, as suggested by some authors, and this should be reflected by the stock returns. This paper investigates the possible relation between weather and market index returns in the context of the Spanish market, in order to test the above hypothesis. In 1989, this market changed its open outcry trading system into a computerised and decentralised trading system. Therefore, it is possible to check the influence of weather variables (sunshine hours and humidity levels) on index returns in an open outcry trading system, and to compare it with a screen traded environment. T…
Calendar Anomalies in Stock Index Futures
There exist a large and increasing number of papers that describe different calendar anomalies in stock markets. Although empirical evidence suggests that seasonal effects disappeared after the early 1990s, new studies and approaches assert the continuation of some anomalies in stock indexes. In this paper, we present a comprehensive study of 188 possible cyclical anomalies in S&P 500, DAX and Nikkei stock index futures contracts from 1991 to 2008. Frictions in futures markets, unlike spot markets frictions, make it feasible to produce economically significant profits from trading rules based on calendar effects. By applying a percentile-t-bootstrap and Monte Carlo methods, our analysis rev…
Size Clustering in European Carbon Markets
This paper documents empirical evidence of size clustering behavior in the European Carbon Futures Market and analyzes the circumstances under which it happens. Our findings show that carbon trades are concentrated in sizes of one to five contracts and in multiples of five. We have observed the existence of price clustering of prices ending in digits 0 or 5, and we have also proved that more clustered prices have more clustered sizes. Finally, the analysis of the key factors of the size clustering reveals that carbon traders use a reduced number of different trade sizes to simplify their trading process when uncertainty is high, market liquidity is poor, and the desire for opening new posit…
The Effects of National Allocation Plans on Carbon Markets
The release of information in carbon markets at its early state is characterized as being numerous and not scheduled. This paper analyzes the impact of National Allocation Plans announcements on carbon prices and their volatility during the period October 2004 through May 2007, during which time more than 70 announcements were released. In order to adapt event studies methodology to the particularities of our data, a sole series with lots of announcements, we propose the Truncated Mean Model that does not take into account big surprises in the estimation period. The results indicate that news has an influence on carbon prices on both the announcement day and previous days. Additionally, we …
Operaciones y Mercados de Renta Fija Curso 2020-21
El programa de la asignatura se divide en tres partes. La primera consta de un tema introductorio sobre la negociación de las operaciones financieras. Se repasan los conceptos más importantes de la asignatura Matemática Financiera cursada en el primer semestre de segundo curso y se profundiza en las distintas formas de operar, ya sea mediante operaciones de compraventa simple como dobles. La segunda parte se divide en tres temas dedicados a los activos y mercados de renta fija. Se analiza con detalle la deuda a corto plazo, tanto las Letras del Tesoro como los Pagarés de Empresa, la deuda a medio y largo plazo, incluyendo el análisis de los Bonos y Obligaciones del Estado y la Deuda Corpora…