0000000001026025
AUTHOR
David Conesa
showing 48 related works from this author
Bayesian Markov switching models for the early detection of influenza epidemics
2008
The early detection of outbreaks of diseases is one of the most challenging objectives of epidemiological surveillance systems. In this paper, a Markov switching model is introduced to determine the epidemic and non-epidemic periods from influenza surveillance data: the process of differenced incidence rates is modelled either with a first-order autoregressive process or with a Gaussian white-noise process depending on whether the system is in an epidemic or in a non-epidemic phase. The transition between phases of the disease is modelled as a Markovian process. Bayesian inference is carried out on the former model to detect influenza epidemics at the very moment of their onset. Moreover, t…
The Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation for fitting Dirichlet regression models
2022
This paper introduces a Laplace approximation to Bayesian inference in Dirichlet regression models, which can be used to analyze a set of variables on a simplex exhibiting skewness and heteroscedasticity, without having to transform the data.These data, which mainly consist of proportions or percentages of disjoint categories, are widely known as compositional data and are common in areas such as ecology, geology, and psychology. We provide both the theoretical foundations and a description of how Laplace approximation can be implemented in the case of Dirichlet regression.The paper also introduces the package dirinla in the R-language that extends the RINLA package, which can not deal dire…
Bayesian spatio-temporal discard model in a demersal trawl fishery
2014
Spatial management of discards has recently been proposed as a useful tool for the protection of juveniles, by reducing discard rates and can be used as a buffer against management errors and recruitment failure. In this study Bayesian hierarchical spatial models have been used to analyze about 440 trawl fishing operations of two different metiers, sampled between 2009 and 2012, in order to improve our understanding of factors that influence the quantity of discards and to identify their spatio-temporal distribution in the study area. Our analysis showed that the relative importance of each variable was different for each metier, with a few similarities. In particular, the random vessel eff…
PA 05-3-0690 Mavie-lab sports: a mhealth for injury prevention and risk management in sport
2018
Computational advances in smart-phone technology and the development of expert systems has been an opportunity to devise the MAVIE-Lab an innovative Mobile Health Application (mHealth) for primary prevention of Home, Leisure and Sport Injuries (HLIs). Here, we present MAVIE-Lab Sports, the first module of the application focused on sports injuries. MAVIE-Lab was developed in the framework of the MAVIE project. A large web-based cohort launched with the objective of prospectively collecting data related to HLIs. A sample size of 26 000 volunteers have been already enrolled in this cohort and the ultimate goal is to recruit 1 00 000 participants in France. As a first step, the MAVIE-Lab will …
Modeling temporal and spatial colony‐site dynamics in a long‐lived seabird
2003
We studied the determinants of colony site dynamics in Audouin's gull, Larus audouinii, breeding in a small archipelago of the western Mediterranean. Data on island occupation were available for a series of 25 years, since first colonization of the archipelago in 1973. Group behavior was studied in relation to the components of dispersal: permanence or abandonment (extinction) on an island previously occupied and permanence or occupation (colonization) of another island. Generalized Linear Mixed Models (GLMMs) were used to identify the relative contribution of each explanatory variable to the probability of colony abandonment. Gulls showed a low probability (3%) of abandoning one of the isl…
Barrier effects on the spatial distribution of Xylella fastidiosa in Alicante, Spain
2021
AbstractSpatial models often assume isotropy and stationarity, implying that spatial dependence is direction invariant and uniform throughout the study area. However, these assumptions are violated when dispersal barriers are present in the form of geographical features or disease control interventions. Despite this, the issue of non-stationarity has been little explored in the context of plant health. The objective of this study was to evaluate the influence of different barriers in the distribution of the quarantine plant pathogenic bacterium Xylella fastidiosa in the demarcated area in Alicante, Spain. Occurrence data from the official surveys in 2018 were analyzed with four spatial Baye…
Evidence for spatiotemporal shift in demersal fishery management priority areas in the western Mediterranean
2022
14 pages, 10 figures, 2 tables, 1 appendix
Modelling the presence of disease under spatial misalignment using Bayesian latent Gaussian models.
2015
Modelling patterns of the spatial incidence of diseases using local environmental factors has been a growing problem in the last few years. Geostatistical models have become popular lately because they allow estimating and predicting the underlying disease risk and relating it with possible risk factors. Our approach to these models is based on the fact that the presence/absence of a disease can be expressed with a hierarchical Bayesian spatial model that incorporates the information provided by the geographical and environmental characteristics of the region of interest. Nevertheless, our main interest here is to tackle the misalignment problem arising when information about possible covar…
Spatial Bayesian Modeling Applied to the Surveys of Xylella fastidiosa in Alicante (Spain) and Apulia (Italy)
2020
The plant-pathogenic bacterium Xylella fastidiosa was first reported in Europe in 2013, in the province of Lecce, Italy, where extensive areas were affected by the olive quick decline syndrome, caused by the subsp. pauca. In Alicante, Spain, almond leaf scorch, caused by X. fastidiosa subsp. multiplex, was detected in 2017. The effects of climatic and spatial factors on the geographic distribution of X. fastidiosa in these two infested regions in Europe were studied. The presence/absence data of X. fastidiosa in the official surveys were analyzed using Bayesian hierarchical models through the integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) methodology. Climatic covariates were obtained from …
The geography of Spanish bank branches
2014
This article analyzes the determinants of bank branch location in Spain taking the role of geography explicitly into account. After a long period of intense territorial expansion, especially by savings banks, many of these firms are now involved in merger processes triggered off by the financial crisis, most of which entail the closing of many branches. However, given the contributions of this type of banks to limit financial exclusion, this process might exacerbate the consequences of the crisis for some disadvantaged social groups. Related problems such as new banking regulation initiatives (Basel III), or the current excess capacity in the sector add further relevance to this problem. We…
Bootstrapping profit change: An application to Spanish banks
2012
The aim of this study is to provide a tool which enables us to conduct statistical analysis in the context of changes in productivity and profit. We build on previous initiatives to decompose profit change into mutually exclusive and exhaustive sources. To do this we use distance functions, which are calculated empirically using linear programming techniques. However, we may not learn a great deal by solving these linear programs unless methods of statistical analysis are used to examine the properties of the relevant estimators. Our purpose is to provide a methodology based on bootstrap that allows us to conduct statistical inference for the profit change decomposition. Thus, it will be po…
Sensitivity analysis of efficiency and Malmquist productivity indices: An application to Spanish savings banks
2008
Hypothesis testing and statistical precision in the context of non-parametric efficiency and productivity measurement have been investigated since the early 1990s. Recent contributions focus on this matter through the use of resampling methods-i.e., bootstrapping techniques. However, empirical evidence is still practically non-existent. This gap is more noticeable in the case of banking efficiency studies, where the literature is immense. In this work, we explore productivity growth and productive efficiency for Spanish savings banks over the (initial) post-deregulation period 1992-1998 using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and bootstrapping techniques. Results show that productivity growth…
Bovine paramphistomosis in Galicia (Spain): Prevalence, intensity, aetiology and geospatial distribution of the infection
2013
12 páginas, 5 figuras, 4 tablas.
Bayesian spatio-temporal approach to identifying fish nurseries by validating persistence areas
2015
Spatial and temporal closures of fish nursery areas to fishing have recently been recognized as useful tools for efficient fisheries management, as they preserve the reproductive potential of populations and increase the recruitment of target species. In order to identify and locate potential nursery areas for spatio-temporal closures, a solid understanding of species− environment relationships is needed, as well as spatial identification of fish nurseries through the application of robust analyses. One way to achieve knowledge of fish nurseries is to analyse the persistence of recruitment hotspots. In this study, we propose the comparison of different spatiotemporal model structures to ass…
Inference and prediction in bulk arrival queues and queues with service in stages
1998
This paper deals with the statistical analysis from a Bayesian point of view, of bulk arrival queues where the batch size is considered as a fixed constant. The focus is on prediction of the usual measures of performance of the system in the steady state. The probability generating function of the posterior predictive distribution of the number of customers in the system and the Laplace transform of the posterior predictive distribution of the waiting time in the system are obtained. Numerical inversion of these transforms is considered. Inference and prediction of its equivalent single queue with service in stages is also discussed.
A Classification System for Decision-Making in the Management of Patients with Chronic Conditions
2021
Patients with chronic diseases are frequent users of healthcare services. The systematic use of stratification tools and predictive models for this group of patients can be useful for health professionals in decision-making processes. The aim of this study was to design two new classifier systems for detecting the risk of hospital admission for elderly patients with chronic conditions. In this retrospective cohort study, a set of variables related to hospital admission for patients with chronic conditions was obtained through focus groups, a health database analysis and statistical processing. To predict the probability of admission from the set of predictor variables, a logistic regression…
Bayesian Immature Survival Analysis of the Largest Colony of Common Murre (Uria aalge) in the Baltic Sea
2019
In long-lived species, such as seabirds, immature survival is the most important life history parameter after adult survival. The assessment of immature survival has often been difficult due to extended periods in which young birds remain unobservable at sea. This study presents results on survival of immature Common Murre (Uria aalge) obtained from an extensive mark-recapture study of a large colony at Stora Karlso in the Baltic Sea, Sweden. This colony, in contrast with other colonies, has the unique feature that many 1-year-old birds return to the colony (12%). Between 2006 and 2016, 28,930 chicks were marked at fledging, of which 5,493 individuals were later resighted in the colony. Ann…
Modelling Inoculum Availability ofPlurivorosphaerella nawaein Persimmon Leaf Litter with Bayesian Beta Regression
2019
AbstractCircular leaf spot (CLS), caused byPlurivorosphaerella nawae, is a serious disease of persimmon (Diospyros kaki) inducing necrotic lesions on leaves, defoliation and fruit drop. Under Mediter-ranean conditions,P. nawaeforms pseudothecia in the leaf litter during winter and ascospores are released in spring infecting susceptible leaves. Persimmon growers are advised to apply fungicides for CLS control during the period of inoculum availability, which was defined based on ascospore counts under the microscope. A model of inoculum availability ofP. nawaewas developed and evaluated as an alternative to ascospore counts. Leaf litter samples were collected weekly in L’Alcúdia from 2010 to…
Modelling spatially sampled proportion processes
2018
Many ecological processes are measured as proportions and are spatially sampled. In all these cases the standard procedure has long been the transformation of proportional data with the arcsine square root or logit transformation, without considering the spatial correlation in any way. This paper presents a robust regression model to analyse this kind of data using a beta regression and including a spatially correlated term within the Bayesian framework. As a practical example, we apply the proposed approach to a spatio-temporally sampled fishery discard dataset.
Deciphering genomic heterogeneity and the internal composition of tumour activities through a hierarchical factorisation model
2021
Genomic heterogeneity constitutes one of the most distinctive features of cancer diseases, limiting the efficacy and availability of medical treatments. Tumorigenesis emerges as a strongly stochastic process, producing a variable landscape of genomic configurations. In this context, matrix factorisation techniques represent a suitable approach for modelling such complex patterns of variability. In this work, we present a hierarchical factorisation model conceived from a systems biology point of view. The model integrates the topology of molecular pathways, allowing to simultaneously factorise genes and pathways activity matrices. The protocol was evaluated by using simulations, showing a hi…
Modelling sensitive elasmobranchs habitat
2013
Basic information on the distribution and habitat preferences of ecologically important species is essential for their management and protection. In the Mediterranean Sea there is increasing concern over elasmobranch species because their biological (ecological) characteristics make them highly vulnerable to fishing pressure. Their removal could affect the structure and function of marine ecosystems, inducing changes in trophic interactions at the community level due to the selective elimination of predators or prey species, competitors and species replacement. In this study Bayesian hierarchical spatial models are used to map the sensitive habitats of the three most caught elasmobranch spe…
Tracking the outbreak. An optimized delimiting survey strategy for Xylella fastidiosa
2020
SummaryCurrent legislation enforces the implementation of intensive surveillance programs for quarantine plant pathogens. After an outbreak, surveys are implemented to delimit the geographic extent of the pathogen and execute disease control. The feasibility of control programs is highly dependent on budget availability, thus it is necessary to target and optimize surveillance strategies.A sequential adaptive delimiting survey involving a three-phase and a two-phase design with increasing spatial resolution was developed and implemented for the Xylella fastidiosa outbreak in Alicante, Spain. Inspection and sampling intensities were optimized using simulation-based methods and results were v…
Herramientas estadísticas para resolver contrastes de hipótesis con contenido biológico: su uso en ecología del siglo XXI
2008
Amenudo la formación que han recibido durante la carrera los jóvenes investigadores tiene notables carencias en los aspectos prácticos de diseño experimental, análisis de datos e interpretación de resultados, lo cual limita de manera decisiva el provecho científico futuro de sus actividades. Eso es especialmente cierto en nuestros días, ya que vivimos una revolución importante en el campo de la metodología estadística e incluso en el procedimiento de hacer inferencia (el salto matemático desde las propiedades de nuestra muestra de datos a las de los parámetros desconocidos de la población, nuestro objeto de estudio), que afecta no sólo a los ecólogos sino a muchas otras disciplinas científi…
Integrating fishing spatial patterns and strategies to improve high sea fisheries management
2018
Fishing activity in waters beyond national jurisdiction generates multiple management issues, such as data poor fisheries, management of straddling fish stocks and lack of impact assessments on deep-sea Vulnerable Marine Ecosystems (VMEs). Fishing strategy is the key to understanding and managing high seas fisheries, targeting highly migratory resources that are widely distributed. An international fleet, including Spanish flag bottom trawlers, operates along the Patagonian shelf in Southwest Atlantic waters, which includes an unregulated strip of continental shelf beyond national jurisdiction. The Spanish fleet’s fishing strategy was analyzed, and based on on-board observer data collected …
Do Spanish IPO firms fit the continental European model for going public?
2019
Este trabajo analiza los determinantes de la decisión de salir a bolsa en el mercado español de una muestra de empresas no financieras que llevaron a cabo una oferta pública inicial (OPI) de acciones en el período 1997-2013. Para ello, empleamos una serie de características relacionadas con las empresas y el entorno económico y los métodos de regresión logit para obtener el modelo que mejor se ajusta a nuestros datos, utilizando como muestra de control las empresas que podrían haber salido a bolsa en el mismo período, pero optaron por no hacerlo. En España, las empresas que salieron a bolsa se caracterizaron por ser relativamente más grandes y más arriesgadas que las que no lo hicieron. Ade…
A hierarchical Bayesian Beta regression approach to study the effects of geographical genetic structure and spatial autocorrelation on species distri…
2019
Global climate change (GCC) may be causing distribution range shifts in many organisms worldwide. Multiple efforts are currently focused on the development of models to better predict distribution range shifts due to GCC. We addressed this issue by including intraspecific genetic structure and spatial autocorrelation (SAC) of data in distribution range models. Both factors reflect the joint effect of ecoevolutionary processes on the geographical heterogeneity of populations. We used a collection of 301 georeferenced accessions of the annual plant Arabidopsis thaliana in its Iberian Peninsula range, where the species shows strong geographical genetic structure. We developed spatial and nonsp…
FluDetWeb: an interactive web-based system for the early detection of the onset of influenza epidemics
2009
Abstract Background The early identification of influenza outbreaks has became a priority in public health practice. A large variety of statistical algorithms for the automated monitoring of influenza surveillance have been proposed, but most of them require not only a lot of computational effort but also operation of sometimes not-so-friendly software. Results In this paper, we introduce FluDetWeb, an implementation of a prospective influenza surveillance methodology based on a client-server architecture with a thin (web-based) client application design. Users can introduce and edit their own data consisting of a series of weekly influenza incidence rates. The system returns the probabilit…
Identifying the best fishing-suitable areas under the new European discard ban
2016
Abstract The spatial management of fisheries has been repeatedly proposed as a discard mitigation measure. A number of studies have assessed the fishing suitability of an area based on units of by-catch or discard per unit effort. However, correct identification of fishing-suitable areas should assess biomass loss with respect to the benefits. This study therefore, proposes the analysis of by-catch ratios, which do represent benefit vs. loss and are standardized to a wide range of effort characteristics. Furthermore, our study proposes the use of two ratios: the proportion of total unwanted biomass out of the total catch as an indicator of the overall ecological impact, and the proportion o…
European Energy Efficiency Evaluation Based on the Use of Super-Efficiency Under Undesirable Outputs in SBM Models
2020
Although Data Envelopment Analysis models have been intensively used for measuring efficiency, the inclusion of undesirable outputs has extended their use to analyse relevant fields such as environmental efficiency. In this context, slacks-based measure (SBM) models offer a remarkable alternative, largely due to their ability to deal with undesirable outputs. Additionally, super-efficiency evaluation in DEA is a useful complementary analysis for ranking the performance of efficient DMUs and even mandatory for dynamic efficiency evaluation. An extension to this approach in the presence of undesirable outputs is here introduced and then applied in the context of the environmental efficiency i…
Energy efficiency in the European Union: What can be learned from the joint application of directional distance functions and slacks-based measures?
2014
Abstract Over the last few years concerns have increased about the energy mix in many countries. These concerns have been of greater magnitude for countries with a common energy regulation such as European Union (EU) member states. An important aspect to take into account when choosing a given energy mix is the efficiency involved in its generation. In this context, the present study analyzes the efficiency with which electricity and derived heat was produced in 25 EU member states over the last decade. This analysis considers not only the inputs and outputs involved but, more importantly, which undesirable by-products were generated during the production process, a relevant issue for EU cl…
Analysis of the renal transplant waiting list in the País Valencià (Spain).
2005
In this paper we analyse the renal transplant waiting list of the Pais Valencia in Spain, using Queueing theory. The customers of this queue are patients with end-stage renal failure waiting for a kidney transplant. We set up a simplified model to represent the flow of the customers through the system, and perform Bayesian inference to estimate parameters in the model. Finally, we consider several scenarios by tuning the estimations achieved and computationally simulate the behaviour of the queue under each one. The results indicate that the system could reach equilibrium at some point in the future and the model forecasts a slow decrease in the size of the waiting list in the short and mid…
Bayesian hierarchical Poisson models with a hidden Markov structure for the detection of influenza epidemic outbreaks
2015
Considerable effort has been devoted to the development of statistical algorithms for the automated monitoring of influenza surveillance data. In this article, we introduce a framework of models for the early detection of the onset of an influenza epidemic which is applicable to different kinds of surveillance data. In particular, the process of the observed cases is modelled via a Bayesian Hierarchical Poisson model in which the intensity parameter is a function of the incidence rate. The key point is to consider this incidence rate as a normal distribution in which both parameters (mean and variance) are modelled differently, depending on whether the system is in an epidemic or non-epide…
Spatio-Temporal Assessment of the European Hake (Merluccius merluccius) Recruits in the Northern Iberian Peninsula
2021
14 pages, 9 figures, 3 tables.-- This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY)
Fishery-dependent and -independent data lead to consistent estimations of essential habitats
2016
AbstractSpecies mapping is an essential tool for conservation programmes as it provides clear pictures of the distribution of marine resources. However, in fishery ecology, the amount of objective scientific information is limited and data may not always be directly comparable. Information about the distribution of marine species can be derived from two main sources: fishery-independent data (scientific surveys at sea) and fishery-dependent data (collection and sampling by observers in commercial vessels). The aim of this paper is to compare whether these two different sources produce similar, complementary, or different results. We compare them in the specific context of identifying the Es…
Incorporating Biotic Information in Species Distribution Models: A Coregionalized Approach
2021
In this work, we discuss the use of a methodological approach for modelling spatial relationships among species by means of a Bayesian spatial coregionalized model. Inference and prediction is performed using the integrated nested Laplace approximation methodology to reduce the computational burden. We illustrate the performance of the coregionalized model in species interaction scenarios using both simulated and real data. The simulation demonstrates the better predictive performance of the coregionalized model with respect to the univariate models. The case study focus on the spatial distribution of a prey species, the European anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus), and one of its predator spe…
Spatio-Temporal model structures with shared components for semi-continuous species distribution modelling
2017
Abstract Understanding the spatio-temporal dynamism and environmental relationships of species is essential for the conservation of natural resources. Many spatio-temporally sampled processes result in continuous positive [ 0 , ∞ ) abundance datasets that have many zero values observed in areas that lie outside their optimum niche. In such cases the most common option is to use two-part or hurdle models, which fit independent models and consequently independent environmental effects to occurrence and conditional-to-presence abundance. This may be correct in some cases, but not as much in others where the detection probability is related to the abundance. The aim of this work is to infer the…
Accounting for preferential sampling in species distribution models
2019
D. C., A. L. Q. and F. M. would like to thank the Ministerio de Educación y Ciencia (Spain) for financial support (jointly financed by the European Regional Development Fund) via Research Grants MTM2013‐42323‐P and MTM2016‐77501‐P, and ACOMP/2015/202 from Generalitat Valenciana (Spain). Species distribution models (SDMs) are now being widely used in ecology for management and conservation purposes across terrestrial, freshwater, and marine realms. The increasing interest in SDMs has drawn the attention of ecologists to spatial models and, in particular, to geostatistical models, which are used to associate observations of species occurrence or abundance with environmental covariates in a fi…
On the dynamics of eco-efficiency performance in the European Union
2016
This paper evaluates the evolution of environmental performance in the context of the European Union (EU), over the period 1993–2010. The context is particularly relevant, due to the traditionally high concerns of the EU about these issues, which has triggered off several initiatives and regulations on environmental protection. In this setting, we conduct a two-stage analysis which develops environmental performance indicators in the first stage for each pair country-year, and evaluates its evolution in the second. More specifically, in the first stage we estimate specific efficiencies for three air-pollutants (CO2e, SO2, NOx), along with an eco-efficiency indicator, for which we use the sl…
Reference genome assessment from a population scale perspective: an accurate profile of variability and noise.
2017
Abstract Motivation Current plant and animal genomic studies are often based on newly assembled genomes that have not been properly consolidated. In this scenario, misassembled regions can easily lead to false-positive findings. Despite quality control scores are included within genotyping protocols, they are usually employed to evaluate individual sample quality rather than reference sequence reliability. We propose a statistical model that combines quality control scores across samples in order to detect incongruent patterns at every genomic region. Our model is inherently robust since common artifact signals are expected to be shared between independent samples over misassembled regions …
Bayesian hierarchical models in manufacturing bulk service queues
2006
In this paper, Queueing Theory and Bayesian statistical tools are used to analyze the congestion of various manufacturing bulk service queues with the same characteristics that are working independently of one another and in equilibrium. Hierarchical models are discussed in order to develop the whole inferential process for the parameters governing the system. Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods and numerical inversion of transforms are addressed to compute the posterior predictive distributions of the usual measures of performance in practice.
Assessing the spatiotemporal persistence of fish distributions: a case study on two red mullet species (Mullus surmuletus and M. barbatus) in the wes…
2020
Understanding the spatiotemporal persistence of fish distributions is key to defining fish hotspots and effective fisheries-restricted areas (FRAs). Hierarchical Bayesian spatiotemporal models provide an excellent framework to understand these distributions, as they can accommodate different spatiotemporal behaviour in the data, primarily due to their flexibility. The aim of this research was to characterize the fundamental behavioural patterns of fish as persistent, opportunistic or progressive by comparing different spatiotemporal model structures in order to provide better information for marine spatial planning. To illustrate this method, the spatiotemporal distributions of 2 sympatric …
Dealing with physical barriers in bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus) distribution
2019
Abstract Worldwide, cetacean species have started to be protected, but they are still very vulnerable to accidental damage from an expanding range of human activities at sea. To properly manage these potential threats we need a detailed understanding of the seasonal distributions of these highly mobile populations. To achieve this goal, a growing effort has been underway to develop species distribution models (SDMs) that correctly describe and predict preferred species areas. However, accuracy is not always easy to achieve when physical barriers, such as islands, are present. Indeed, SDMs assume, if only implicitly, that the spatial effect is stationary, and that correlation is only depende…
Modeling the Spatial Distribution of Xylella fastidiosa: A Nonstationary Approach with Dispersal Barriers
2022
Spatial species distribution models often assume isotropy and stationarity, implying that spatial dependence is direction-invariant and uniform throughout the study area. However, these assumptions are violated when dispersal barriers are present. Despite this, the issue of nonstationarity has been little explored in the context of plant health. The objective of this study was to evaluate the influence of barriers in the distribution of Xylella fastidiosa in the demarcated area in Alicante, Spain. Occurrence data from 2018 were analyzed through spatial Bayesian hierarchical models. The stationary model, illustrating a scenario without control interventions or geographical features, was com…
MAVIE-Lab Sports: a mHealth for Injury Prevention and Risk Management in Sport
2018
International audience; Smart-phones technology and the development of mHealth (Mobile Health) applications offer an opportunity to design intervention tools to influence health behavior changes. The MAVIE-Lab is a mHealth application including a DSS (Desicion Support System) to assist in the personalized evaluation of HLIs (Home, Leisure and Sport Injuries) risk and to promote the adoption of prevention measures. MAVIE-Lab Sports will be the first module of the mobile application. The purpose of this PhD project is to improve a particular module of MAVIE-Lab, devoted to sports (MAVIE-Lab Sports), in different aspects: statistical modeling, design and ergonomics. It also aims to evaluate sy…
The analysis of convergence in ecological indicators: An application to the Mediterranean fisheries
2017
9 pages, 4 figures, 3 tables
Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Suicide-Related Emergency Calls
2017
Considerable effort has been devoted to incorporate temporal trends in disease mapping. In this line, this work describes the importance of including the effect of the seasonality in a particular setting related with suicides. In particular, the number of suicide-related emergency calls is modeled by means of an autoregressive approach to spatio-temporal disease mapping that allows for incorporating the possible interaction between both temporal and spatial effects. Results show the importance of including seasonality effect, as there are differences between the number of suicide-related emergency calls between the four seasons of each year.
Statistical performance of a multiclass bulk production queueing system
2004
Abstract In this paper, we discuss how to statistically analyze a make-to-stock production system the behaviour of which depends on a multiclass bulk queueing system. The performance of the system is evaluated in terms of the different demands of products, processing times and, mainly, through the finished product inventory and other related measures that quantify the queueing effects in the system. A numerical example which illustrates the applicability of the results in an inventory scenario is also discussed.
Bayesian hierarchical models for analysing the spatial distribution of bioclimatic indices
2017
A methodological approach for modelling the spatial distribution of bioclimatic indices is proposed in this paper. The value of the bioclimatic index is modelled with a hierarchical Bayesian model that incorporates both structured and unstructured random effects. Selection of prior distributions is also discussed in order to better incorporate any possible prior knowledge about the parameters that could refer to the particular characteristics of bioclimatic indices. MCMC methods and distributed programming are used to obtain an approximation of the posterior distribution of the parameters and also the posterior predictive distribution of the indices. One main outcome of the proposal is the …