0000000001155619
AUTHOR
Benjamin Pohl
“Beyond Weather Regimes”: Descriptors Monitoring Atmospheric Centers of Action. A case study for Aotearoa New Zealand
AbstractThis paper introduces a set of descriptors applied to weather regimes, that allow for a detailed monitoring of the location and intensity of their atmospheric centers of action (e.g. troughs and ridges) and the gradients between them, when applicable. Descriptors are designed to document the effect of climate variability and change in modulating the character of daily weather regimes, rather than merely their occurrence statistics.As a case study, the methodology is applied to Aotearoa New Zealand (ANZ), using ERA5 ensemble reanalysis data for the period 1979-2019. Here, we analyze teleconnections between the regimes and their descriptors, and large-scale climate variability. Result…
Mesures de la température et spatialisation de l’Ilot de Chaleur Urbain à Dijon
The Territorial Climate Energy Plan (PCET) of the agglomeration of Dijon (Grand Dijon) includes ameasurement campaign (6 June to 28 September 2014). 50 Hobo proV2 thermometers were deployed. The selection of siteswas carried out so that the different types of urban environment (Oke, 2006) are documented. The Urban Heat Island (UHI)is discernible mainly at night, when radiative conditions are well established the day before. It is estimated to 1°C onaverage for the summer, 3-4°C during nights of fine weather. It reached 6°C during the warmest periods of the 2014 summer.A cool axis through the agglomeration shows that vegetation and water can sensibly mitigate the ICU effect.
Observed changes in the life time and amplitude of the madden-julian oscillation associated with interannual ENSO sea surface temperature anomalies
Abstract The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is analyzed using the reanalysis zonal wind– and satellite outgoing longwave radiation–based indices of Wheeler and Hendon for the 1974–2005 period. The average lifetime of the MJO events varies with season (36 days for events whose central date occurs in December, and 48 days for events in September). The lifetime of the MJO in the equinoctial seasons (March–May and October–December) is also dependent on the state of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). During October–December it is only 32 days under El Niño conditions, increasing to 48 days under La Niña conditions, with similar values in northern spring. This difference is due to faster eastw…
Effets des émissions anthropiques de gaz à effet de serre sur le climat du bassin de l'océan Indien
La simulation numérique du climat par le modèle couplé de circulation générale ARPEGE-OPA est utilisée ici pour prédire les effets d'un doublement du CO2 atmosphérique en l'an 2100 sur le climat du bassin de l'Océan Indien. Les températures de surface de la mer, les précipitations et les champs moyens de vents à 850 et 200 hPa sont étudiés au pas de temps trimestriel, sur les deux normales climatiques 1968-1997 et 2070-2099. Pour la fin du XX° siècle, le modèle a tendance à surestimer légèrement les TSM et plus fortement les précipitations, résultat d'un cycle hydrologique simulé trop développé. L'extraction d'indices pluviométriques calculés sur des régions homogènes montre que les télécon…
Errors and uncertainties introduced by a regional climate model in climate impact assessments: example of crop yield simulations in West Africa
16 pages; International audience; The challenge of estimating the potential impacts of climate change has led to an increasing use of dynamical downscaling to produce fine spatial-scale climate projections for impact assessments. In this work, we analyze if and to what extent the bias in the simulated crop yield can be reduced by using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model to downscale ERA-Interim (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis) rainfall and radiation data. Then, we evaluate the uncertainties resulting from both the choice of the physical parameterizations of the WRF model and its internal variability. Impact assessments w…
L'Oscillation de Madden-Julian et la variabilité pluviométrique régionale en Afrique Subsaharienne
The role of the Madden-Julian Oscillation ("MJO") on rainfall variability in Sub-Saharan Africa is examined, based on daily rain-gauge records and the NCEP-DOE AMIP-II reanalyses. The convective and dynamical signal associated with the MJO is extracted using two differing methodologies, the BMRC daily indices (Wheeler & Hendon 2004) on the one hand, and a Local Mode Analysis ("LMA", Goulet & Duvel 2000) on the other hand. The temporal variability of the MJO (in terms of period, amplitude, seasonality and location of the convective anomalies) is first analysed. Though the overall amplitude of the signal is not related to El Niño, the oscillations occurring under El Niño (La Niña) conditions …
Gestion et manipulation des données en climatologie
International audience
Influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on East African rainfall. Part I: Intraseasonal variability and regional dependency
The influence of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) on rainfall amounts over Equatorial East Africa (Kenya and northern Tanzania) is analysed for the period 1979–95 at the intraseasonal (pentad) time-scale. The two rainy seasons (March to May and October to December) are considered. Intraseasonal wet events in East Africa are embedded in large-scale zonal circulation anomaly patterns along the equator, showing distinct eastward propagation. It is further found that these ‘wet’ events display a clear phasing with respect to the MJO cycle. This phasing is expressed as out-of-phase variations between the Highland and the coastal areas. Such a pattern is suggested to reflect different rain-cau…
Recent climate variability around the Kerguelen Islands (Southern Ocean) seen through weather regimes
AbstractDaily weather regimes are defined around the Kerguelen Islands (Southern Ocean) based on daily 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies derived from the ERA5 ensemble reanalysis over the period 1979-2018. Ten regimes are retained as significant. Their occurrences are highly consistent across reanalysis ensemble members. Regimes show weak seasonality and non-significant long-term trends in their occurrences. Their sequences are usually short (1-3 days), with extreme persistence values above 10 days. Seasonal regime frequency is mostly driven by the phase of the Southern Annular Mode over Antarctica, mid-latitude dynamics over the Southern Ocean like the Pacific South American mode, and …
Intraseasonal oscillations of the East African long rains and their connection with MJO activity over the Indian Ocean
Our understanding of the East African long rains (March-May) variability remains relatively poor. Interannual variations are quite small compared to intraseasonal vari- ations. An analysis of pentad rainfall and OLR data shows organised variations in the range of 20-75 days, though quite irregular from year to year. However, rainfall and OLR variations are strongly consistent over the highland region only. For this region, NCEP-DOE II reanalysis data are used to detect atmospheric patterns associated to wet events. Significant zonal wind anomalies, of opposite sign at 850 and 200 hPa, are found locally over East Africa. Anomalous low-level westerlies (upper-level easter- lies) are observed d…
Diagnostic de la variabilité interannuelle des sorties CORDEX-Africa sur le secteur de l’Afrique du Sud.
7 pages; International audience; La variabilité interannuelle des précipitations issues de dix modèles climatiques régionaux du projet CORDEXAfricaa été analysée sur la région d’Afrique australe située au sud de 20°S et au cours de la période 1990-2007. Nous avonstout d’abord diagnostiqué que la majorité des modèles sous-estime légèrement la variance relative des cumuls annuels,comparativement aux observations, mais reproduit correctement la distribution spatiale avec une variabilité relative plusforte sur les régions les plus sèches. À propos des tendances sur la période, même s’il existe une certaine hétérogénéitéintermodèles, la plupart des MCR présentent, comme les observations, des coe…
The Southern Annular Mode seen through weather regimes
This article investigates the prominent features of the Southern Hemisphere (south of 20°S) atmospheric circulation when extracted using EOF analysis and a k-means clustering algorithm. The focus is on the southern annular mode (SAM), the nature of its recent trend, and the zonal symmetry of associated spatial patterns. The study uses the NCEP–Department of Energy Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project II Reanalysis (NCEP-2) (period 1979–2009) to obtain robust patterns over the recent years and the Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project (period 1871–2008) to document decadal changes. Also presented is a comparison of these signals against a station-based reconstruction of the SAM index an…
On the determination of coherent solar climates over a tropical island with a complex topography
Abstract Many tropical islands aim at developing a greener self-sufficient energy production systems based on renewable energy, notably solar-generated electricity. This work explores the mean diurnal and annual solar cycles over La Reunion island (southwest Indian Ocean: 21°S, 55.5°E), and their spatial behavior, using the Solar surfAce RAdiation Heliosat – East (SARAH-E) satellite-derived data at high spatial ( 0.05 ° × 0.05 ° ) and time (hourly) resolutions over period 1999–2016. Comparisons of the SARAH-E data with ground-based measurements over the period 2011–2015 show differences of ~ 15 % for diurnal-seasonal variations. The solar resource over the island displays strong spatial var…
Uses and limits of thermal indices: the case of Sahel
International audience; Our main goal here is to analyse extreme heat waves (HWs) in the Sahel (13°N-18°N; 16°W-30°E), using different thermal indices. In the ACASIS project funded bythe French “Agence Nationale de la Recherche”, HWs analyses are characterized forthe first time during the hottest season in the Sahel, using the Global Summary of theDay (GSOD) synoptic observations during April-May-June 1973-2013. Such extremehigh temperatures are usually defined by 3 criteria: 1/ Their low probability ofoccurrence: less than the 10% of the days. The use of absolute thresholds,associated with heat budget and physiological impacts, could be an alternative(Seneviratne et al., 2012). 2/ Their in…
The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) impacts on Southern African summer rainfall and Tropical-Temperate Interactions
Composite maps of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) anomalies over the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) cycle show marked intraseasonal fluctuations over southern Africa (south of 15°S). Large-scale convective clusters are seen to propagate eastward and then northward over the continent, mainly between 10° and 20°S. The corresponding response of the rainfall field presents the alternation, over the cycle, of dry and humid phases, which are both significant. Moisture flux anomalies indicate an intraseasonal modulation of the midtropospheric easterly flow over the Congo basin at 700 hPa; these fluctuations are coupled to meridional flux anomalies that extend from the tropical to the subtropica…
Regionalizing rainfall at very high resolution over la Réunion island using a regional climate model.
Abstract Regional climate models (RCMs) should be evaluated with respect to their ability to downscale large-scale climate information to the local scales, which are sometimes strongly modulated by surface conditions. This is the case for La Réunion (southwest Indian Ocean) because of its island context and its complex topography. Large-scale atmospheric configurations such as tropical cyclones (TCs) may have an amplifying effect on local rainfall patterns that only a very high-resolution RCM, forced by the large scales and resolving finescale processes, may simulate properly. This paper documents the capability of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) RCM to regionalize rainfall…
Interannual to interdecadal variability of winter and summer southern African rainfall, and their teleconnections
This study examines for the first time the changing characteristics of summer and winter southern African rainfall and their teleconnections with large-scale climate through the dominant time scales of variability. As determined by wavelet analysis, the austral summer and winter rainfall indices exhibit three significant time scales of variability over the twentieth century: interdecadal (15–28 years), quasi-decadal (8–13 years), and interannual (2–8 years). Teleconnections with global sea surface temperature and atmospheric circulation anomalies are established here but are different for each time scale. Tropical/subtropical teleconnections emerge as the main driver of austral summer rainf…
Warming in the Agulhas Current system since the 1980's
International audience; Since the 1980's, the sea surface temperature of the Agulhas Current system has increased significantly. The warming is due to an augmentation of its transport in response to an increase in wind stress curl in the South Indian Ocean at relevant latitudes. This causes an increase in the fluxes of salt and heat into the Atlantic Ocean and in the transfer of energy from the ocean to the atmosphere. Therefore, the changes we are witnessing in the region could have far reaching consequences on top of the regional impacts on ecosystem and climate. The increase in wind stress curl is consistent with a poleward shift of westerly wind in the Southern Hemisphere reported by ot…
La mousson africaine dans un modèle de circulation générale quasi-parfait
Le modèle de circulation générale ARPEGE-Climat du CNRM présente des biais secs relativement marqués en Afrique de l'Ouest pendant la mousson, même lorsqu'il est forcé par des termpératures de surface marine observées. Les précipitations sahéliennes restent très inférieures aux observations, en lien avec un flux de mousson de basse troposphère trop faible sur la bande guinéenne et l'océan Atlantique équatorial. On propose ici de guider le modèle ARPEGE-Climat vers les réanalyses ERA-40 en dehors d'une fenêtre comprenant l'Afrique de l'Ouest et le proche Atlantique (technique dite de nudging en point de grille). Ce protocole nous permet de: (i) analyser l'origine régionale ou de large échell…
Étude des températures simulées avec Méso-NH : sensibilité à l’artificialisation des sols à Grenoble et Lyon.
International audience; La modélisation atmosphérique à très fine échelle permet d’analyser la dynamique de l’îlot dechaleur urbain en contexte de topographie complexe. Deux simulations (Urbaine et Non-Urbaine) mettenten évidence les effets associés à l'urbanisation. La taille des agglomérations, dans le cas de Lyon etGrenoble, n'influence pas la différence de température entre les deux simulations. Les conditions destabilité influencent fortement ces différences. L'ICU peut être intensifié par l'affaiblissement du vent oul’effet de piégeage et/ou le développement d’une couche d’inversion.
Interactions entre le cycle diurne de la convection atmosphérique et l'Oscillation de Madden-Julian en Afrique de l'Est
Interactions entre le cycle intrasaisonnier (MJO) et le cycle diurne de la convection atmosphérique. Comment ces deux cycles sont-ils imbriqués ? Quels sont les effets de la MJO sur le déroulement du cycle diurne (durée, intensité, extension spatiale des évènements convectifs) ?
Les modèles climatiques régionaux : outils de décomposition des échelles spatio-temporelles.
11 pages; National audience; Les modèles climatiques régionaux sont des outils de désagrégation des champs géophysiques, résolvant les équations de la thermodynamique atmosphérique dans le but de simuler à des échelles fines des champs surfaciques tels que la pluviométrie. Prenant à la fois en compte les échelles larges imposées aux bornes du domaine et les échelles plus fines à l'intérieur du domaine (topographie, occupation du sol, types de sol, ...), ces outils sont particulièrement pertinents pour séparer le signal forcé du bruit stochastique inhérent au système climatique. Une méthodologie est ici proposée pour distinguer les différentes échelles spatio-temporelles de la variabilité cl…
Extratropical Impacts of the Madden–Julian Oscillation over New Zealand from a Weather Regime Perspective
Abstract The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) signal in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) extratropics during the austral summer (November–March) is investigated over the New Zealand (NZ) sector, using the paradigm of atmospheric weather regimes (WRs), following a classification initially established by Kidson. The MJO is first demonstrated to have significant impacts on daily rainfall anomalies in NZ. It is suggested that orographic effects arising from the interaction between regional atmospheric circulation anomalies and NZ’s topography can explain the spatially heterogeneous precipitation anomalies that are related to MJO activity. These local impacts and circulation anomalies are shown to be…
Climate-related activities within the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region.
4 pages; International audience
Impacts climatiques induits par un lac artificiel: apport de l'analyse spatial sous R
International audience; La région des chotts, large dépression salée située au Sud de la chaîne montagneuse Atlas Aurès, s'étend entre le Nord Est de l'Algérie et le Sud de la Tunisie. Ces chotts, situés pour la majorité au dessous du niveau de la mer et vu la nature du terrain (sédiments argileux couverts de croûtes de sels et de gypse) et le climat aride de la zone, forment des étendues d'eau salée partiellement immergées pendant la saison pluvieuse mais sont à sec et couverts par une mince pellicule de sels durant le reste de l'année. L'idée de créer dans ces chotts une "Mer intérieure" date de 1874 et consiste à ramener par le biais d'un canal les eaux de la Méditerranée depuis le golfe…
Impact of internal variability on projections of Sahel precipitation change.
12 pages; International audience; The impact of the increase of greenhouse gases on Sahelian precipitation is very uncertain in both its spatial pattern and magnitude. In particular, the relative importance of internal variability versus external forcings depends on the time horizon considered in the climate projection. In this study we address the respective roles of the internal climate variability versus external forcings on Sahelian precipitation by using the data from the CESM Large Ensemble Project, which consists of a 40 member ensemble performed with the CESM1-CAM5 coupled model for the period 1920–2100. We show that CESM1-CAM5 is able to simulate the mean and interannual variabilit…
Désagrégation dynamique haute résolution spatiale du climat du Centre Est de la France par le modèle climatique régional ARW/WRF
Ce travail analyse les capacités du modèle climatique régional ARW/WRF à reproduire les principaux traits du climat (températures de surface et précipitations) du Centre Est de la France à des résolutions spatiales fines, et pour les années 1991 et 2003. La simulation utilise pour la désagrégation du signal une descente d'échelle basée sur trois domaines emboîtés de maille variable de 120 km, 30 km et 7,5 km. Les conditions latérales sont imposées toutes les 6 heures par les ré- analyses ERA-Interim. Les températures et les précipitations observées par le réseau de mesures de Météo-France Bourgogne sont utilisées pour l'évaluation. Les simulations reproduisent bien la température (R²~0,95 e…
Contribution des talwegs tropicaux-tempérés aux précipitations d’Afrique australe : quelle évolution dans le cadre du changement climatique ?
6 pages; International audience; Cette étude analyse les changements de la pluviométrie et des talwegs tropicaux-tempérés (TTT) en Afriqueaustrale dans le cadre du changement climatique en utilisant huit modèles climatiques retenus dans l’exercice 5 du GIEC etforcés selon la trajectoire RCP 8.5. Tous les modèles restituent convenablement les bandes nuageuses associées aux TTT,tant en termes de variabilité spatiale que de fréquence d’occurrences. Les modèles divergent sur l’évolution desprécipitations de saison des pluies (NDJF). En revanche, ils montrent tous une diminution du nombre de jours de pluieassociée à une augmentation d’événements plus pluvieux. Ces changements dans la distributio…
Temperature changes in the mid- and high- latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere
A Hierarchical Ascending Classification is used to regionalize monthly temperature anomalies measured at 24 weather stations in Antarctica and the Sub-Antarctic and mid-latitude southern islands from 1973 to 2002. Three principal regions are identified that are geographically coherent: Eastern Antarctica, the Antarctic Peninsula and the Sub-Antarctic and mid-latitude islands. Within each region, consistent trends are observed: namely, stationary temperatures in ‘East-Antarctica’; a robust warming in the ‘Sub-Antarctic and mid-latitude islands’, most pronounced in austral summer (nearly 0.5 °C per decade); and a strong but more recent warming in the ‘Antarctic Peninsula’. Austral summer temp…
Estimation du rayonnement solaire dans le sud-ouest de l’océan Indien et a la Réunion : modélisation régionale du climat.
6 pages; International audience; On analyse ici la capacité du modèle climatique régional RegCM4 à simuler les champs radiatifs, la températurede surface et les précipitations sur un domaine couvrant l’Afrique australe et le sud-ouest de l’océan Indien (0-40°S ; 0-100°E), centré sur La Réunion. Les données produites par le modèle sont confrontées aux données d’observations CERESpour les paramètres du rayonnement (ondes courtes et longues) et GPCP pour les précipitations, et aux données desréanalyses ERA-Interim pour la température. Six simulations ont été conduites, chacune avec un schéma de convectiondifférent, afin de tester la sensibilité des résultats à la physique du modèle.Le schéma m…
Downscaling West African climate : uncertainties, sensitivity to the model physics and regional variability
We present here a set of regional climate simulations, complementary to the CORDEX-Africa modeling exercice, performed over West Africa during the 1989-2010 period using the non-hydrostatic model WRF. Lateral and SST forcings are provided by ERA-Interim reanalyses. The regional domain [45W 45E 10S 30N] encompasses West Africa and the nearby Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Guinea. The grid resolution is moderate (80km, with 28 levels on the vertical) in order to reduce computational costs and multiply sensitivity experiments. A first set of fifteen 20-year long simulations addresses the influence of the model physics (convective, radiative and land surface schemes). A second set of simulations co…
On the recent warming of the Agulhas Current
The Agulhas Current is an energetic current driven by the wind field over the Indian Ocean. It has a profound effect on the climate and the coastal ecosystem of South Africa and plays a key role in the global ocean circulation. The current carries warm and salty water from the tropics polewards and controls the exchange of heat and salt between the Indian and Atlantic Oceans. Since the 1980s, the sea surface temperature of the Agulhas Current system has increased significantly. This is due to an increase of its transport in response to an augmentation in wind stress curl in the South Indian Ocean. This causes an intensification of the Agulhas Current system and leads to an increased flux of…
The Urban Heat Island of a middle-size French city as seen by high-resolution numerical experiments and in situ measurements the case of Dijon, Burgundy
International audience; This work aims at characterizing the spatio-temporal variability and features of the urban heat island (UHI) over the agglomeration of Dijon (north-eastern France; 260,000 inhabitants) under present-day conditions and during the boreal summer season (June through September). To that end, two complementary approaches are used: • in situ measurements, using a network of 50 Hobo proV2 sensors measuring air temperature and specific humidity every 20 minutes, and implemented since June 2014 throughout the agglomeration; • high-resolution (150m horizontal resolution) meso-scale atmospheric simulations performed using the WRF/ARW model coupled with the BEP-BEM urban canopy …
SENSIBILITE D'UN MODELE A AIRE LIMITEE A SA PARAMETRISATION PHYSIQUE : APPLICATION EN AFRIQUE AUSTRALE
Cette étude examine pour la première fois en Afrique australe les incertitudes d'un modèle à aire limitée (Advanced Weather Research Forecast (WRF-ARW V3011)) liées à sa paramétrisation physique. Les incertitudes sont analysées au pas de temps saisonnier en déterminant les principaux points communs et différences de 27 expériences numériques, avec un focus sur le champ pluviométrique. Ces 27 expériences documentent le trimestre Décembre-Janvier-Février 1993-94, coeur de la saison des pluies de l'Afrique du Sud à régime pluvial tropical, et correspondent à toutes les combinaisons possibles entre 3 schémas de couche limite, 3 schémas de convection et 3 schémas de microphysique. Quelle que soi…
Urban Heat Island and air quality, Dijon, winter 2014-2015.
For the 2014-2015 Winter, thetemperature patterns and the Air Quality measured over the Grand Dijon urban area are studied together.Meteorological conditions favoring the development of an Urban Heat Island (UHI) are distinguished fromthose giving rise to pollution episodes. Winter UHI are next characterized, with radiative situations followedafter the sunset by relatively strong UHI (about 3°C), and days with no insolation during which anthropogenicheat is suspected to produce a small UHI (few tenths of °C).
Typology of intraseasonal oscillations based on a Local Mode Analysis
The Intraseasonal Oscillation (ISO; 20-120 day) is an important component of the variability of the Tropical convection that strongly perturbs the Asian and the Aus- tralian monsoons. Our knowledge of the physical origin of the ISO however remains largely incomplete, partially because of the large variability of its characteristics from one event to another. The aim is to determine how the patterns of the different ISO events may be objectively regrouped in a few types, related for example to season, ENSO or other large scale forcing. Patterns of the different ISO events are extracted using a Local Mode Analysis (LMA, Goulet and Duvel 2000). The LMA is based on complex empirical orthogonal …
Spatial and temporal variability of rainfall over the Republic of Djibouti from 1946 to 2017.
20 pages; International audience; For the first time, the spatial and temporal variability of rainfall in the Republic of Djibouti is investigated using data from 14 weather stations over the period 1946–2017. Due to limited data availability, high-resolution long-term satellite rainfall products (CHIRPS, PERSIANN-CDR, TAMSATv3, ARC2) and ERA5 reanalysis also contribute to document time–space rainfall variability at monthly, seasonal and annual scales. Principal component analysis identifies two spatially coherent regions of rainfall variability in the east (coastal zone) and the west (inland zone) of the country. Annual rainfall amounts are everywhere very low (60–300 mm), but with contras…
Evaluation of a surface temperature simulation over Tunisia using the WRF model
International audience
Atmospheric circulation modulates the spatial variability of temperature in the Atlantic-Arctic region
International audience; The Arctic region has experienced significant warming during the past two decades with major implications on the cryosphere. The causes of Arctic amplification are still an open question within the scientific community, attracting recent interest. The goal of this study is to quantify the contribution of atmospheric circulation on temperature variability in the Atlantic–Arctic region at decadal to intra‐annual timescales from 1951 to 2014. Daily 20th Century reanalyses geopotential height anomalies at 500 hPa were clustered into different weather regimes to assess their contribution to observed temperature variability. The results show that in winter, 25% of the warm…
How relevant are local climate zones and urban climate zones for urban climate research? Dijon (France) as a case study.
17 pages; International audience; Several typologies of urban surface properties have been proposed, in recent years, for urban heat island studies and climate modeling. Some were specifically developed for cities and urban climate issues, like the Urban Climate Zones, and the more recent Local Climate Zones. The initial objective of this paper is to evaluate the capacity of these two typologies to identify thermal environments in and around cities, and to determine which typology best captures the daily spatio-temporal patterns of surface and urban canopy heat islands. To simulate urban climate with a model, LULC data based on a given typology are required. To avoid circularity, we combine…
Désagrégation numérique de précipitations en Afrique australe et dynamique atmosphérique associée
Cette étude examine les capacités du modèle Advanced Weather Research Forecast (WRF) à simuler les champs saisonniers de précipitations et la dynamique atmosphérique associée en Afrique australe pendant le cœur de la saison des pluies d'été sud-africaines, de décembre 1993 à février 1994. Sa sensibilité à la paramétrisation physique est aussi analysée en termes de quantités précipitées et de types de pluie. WRF simule convenablement les principales structures pluviométriques saisonnières, notamment les Zones de Convergence Inter-Tropicale et Sud Indienne, bien que les pluies y soient sous-estimées, et le gradient ouest-est observé de la région tropicale en Afrique du Sud. Les régions où le …
L'Ilot de Chaleur Urbain de l'agglomération dijonnaise : campagne instrumentale in situ et modélisation climatique régionale haute résolution
International audience; Ce travail présente les résultats préliminaires de caractérisation de l'ilot de chaleur urbain de l'agglomération dijonnaise (extension, intensité, variabilité) obtenus d'une part à l'aide d'une campagne de mesure instrumentale, d'autre part à l'aide du modèle de canopée urbaine BEP-BEM couplé au modèle de climat régional WRF/ARW. Les simulations numériques sont d'abord effectuées en mode hindcast sur l'été 2006 (ayant connu un épisode caniculaire) à une résolution horizontale de 150m. Un travail important a consisté à produire des conditions aux limites aussi réalistes que possible pour obtenir une occupation du sol et une morphologie urbaine de bonne qualité. L'app…
Définition d’un événement de poussières désertiques au Sahel : apport de nouvelles mesures de PM10 au Burkina Faso.
This study isdedicated to the desert dust of the dry season in an inhabited Sahelian rural area whose populations are widely exposed tosanitary risks such as meningitis outbreaks (Martiny & Chiapello, 2013). Here, the objective is to give a definition of a dust“event”, a concept describing the dustiest moments in a dusty environment, but that remains rather unclear, notably becauseof the lack of ground-truth measurements. The analysis of new PM10 measurements in Burkina Faso has enabled us to definethe dust events as episodes which experience concentrations greater than 189μg/m3 for at least 10h. Five types of dust eventshave been defined depending on the concentrations measured. On the fir…
Identification of processes that control the stable isotope composition of rainwater in the humid tropical West-Central Africa.
12 pages; International audience; This study interprets 11 years (2006 to 2016) and 6 months (March to August in 2017) of respectively monthly and daily isotopic (δD and δ18O) monitoring of rain at Douala (Cameroon), a humid tropical station in Western Africa. The main scope is to analyze the climate controls on precipitation isotopes at different timescales. Firstly, we examine the annual cycles of δ18O. Over the 11 years of survey, the annual cycle exhibits a W shape that is quite reproducible from year to year, with two minima in spring and autumn periods. Based on back trajectory calculations and remote sensing observations of water vapor isotopic composition, we show that the observed …
How do tropical temperate troughs form and develop over southern Africa?
16 pages ; Corrigendum Figure (Macron C, B Pohl, Y Richard & M Bessafi (2014) CORRIGENDUM. Journal of Climate, 27, 5198-5199. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00319.1); International audience; This paper aims at separating the respective influences of tropical and midlatitude variability on the development and life cycle of tropical temperate troughs (TTTs) over southern Africa in austral summer (November-February). Cluster analysis is applied to 1971-2000 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) daily outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) anomalies to identify TTTs and monitor tropical convection. The same analysis applied to the zonal wind stretching deformation at 200 hPa (ZDEF) characterizes midlatitude trans…
Sécheresse et inconfort thermique : Le changement climatique se fait ressentir
Biodiversité, rendements agricoles, élevage, pêche… Rien n’est épargné par le changement climatique. Zoom sur deux effets en passe de devenir tristement familiers.
Comment et pour qui cartographier l’îlot de chaleur urbain (ICU) ?
Le réseau MUSTARDijon offre la possibilité de procéder à une cartographie fine des températureshoraires sur Dijon Métropole. La méthode proposée ici repose sur des régressions linéaires multiplesmobilisant deux familles de prédicteurs : des descripteurs du relief et des descripteurs de l’occupation dusol. L’application porte sur la canicule de l’été 2020 (6-9 août). Deux configurations sont comparées. L’une,en mode recherche, laisse la possibilité aux descripteurs de varier dynamiquement en fonction de leurpertinence statistique, l’autre, en mode opérationnel, impose les 5 mêmes descripteurs en entrée. Entermes de performance statistique ou de structure spatiale, l’impact de la méthode n’es…
Influence de l'Oscillation de Madden-Julian sur la variabilité intrasaisonnière des pluies en Afrique de l'Est (Kenya-Tanzanie)
Les incidences de l'Oscillation de Madden-Julian, mode de variabilité atmosphérique intrasaisonnier dominant dans la bande tropicale, sur la répartition des pluies d'Afrique de l'Est durant le trimestre Mars-Avril-Mai, sont étudiées sur la période 1979-2002. L'analyse révèle une modulation significative des précipitations. Cependant, de fortes hétérogénéités existent du point de vue des pluies entre les Hautes terres et la côte kenyane, couplées à des mécanismes pluviogènes de nature différente.
Impacts sur le climat régional induits par l'immersion d'une zone aride : cas de Chott Jérid (sud de la Tunisie).
This work aims to show the possible impacts on the regional climate that could be caused by the partial immersion ofChott Jérid located in the south of Tunisia. Climate simulations have been carried out using the Weather Research andForecasting (WRF) model to compare the present climate of the Chott area simulated over the period 1991-2011 under realconditions of land use to the climate simulated in the fictional presence of a vast artificial waterbody (or lake). Comparisonsshowed that the lake would have a particularly moderating effect on average air temperatures. The sensible heat flux wouldincrease substantially during the winter and decrease during the summer, while latent heat and moi…
Intraseasonal rainfall variability over Madagascar
International audience; Using daily rain-gauge records for Madagascar and nearby islands, this paper investigates rainfall intraseasonal variability at local and regional scales during the austral summer season (November–February), as well as the respective influences of recurrent convective regimes over the South-West Indian Ocean (SWIO) and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). Our results show a general consistency between local-scale rainfall variability in Madagascar and regional-scale features of climate variability. The influence of Tropical-Temperate Troughs in their mature phase and/or their easternmost locations is first underlined. The development of such systems over Southern Afr…
Insights into the summer diurnal cycle over Eastern South Africa.
Abstract Adopting a state-of-the-art numerical model system, we investigate how the diurnal variations in precipitation and local breeze systems are characterized by lower-boundary conditions related to the Drakensberg highland and warm SST associated with the Agulhas Current. A control simulation can simulate the hydrometeorological climates in the region realistically, but the terrestrial rainfall is overestimated. During daytime, the precipitation is confined to the Drakensberg highland, and there is an onshore local breeze, while during midnight to morning, the rainfall is confined to the Agulhas Current, and the breeze is offshore. These variations are captured by the numerical simulat…
Modelling three-dimensional distribution and evolution of rock wall permafrost in the Mont Blanc massif.
International audience
Modèles de climats régionaux : potentiels et limites.
6 pages; International audience; L'utilisation de Modèles de Climat Régionaux (MCR) se développe, ces derniers offrant des potentialités et des limites que nous analysons. Les travaux réalisés au CRC montrent néanmoins que selon la durée des simulations (de l'événement météorologique à l'étude du changement climatique), la fenêtre géographique (des tropiques aux régions tempérées), la résolution spatiale (de quelques dizaines de km à quelques centaines de m) et les variables étudiées (température, précipitation, convection atmosphérique, ...), les conditions d'utilisation varient beaucoup. L'utilisation des MCR requiert ainsi une expertise relativement lourde à acquérir, nécessitant à la fo…
Simulation des cycles diurne et annuel des pluies en Afrique du Sud par un modèle de climat régional.
7 pages; International audience; On analyse ici la capacité du modèle climatique régional non-hydrostatique WRF à simuler les cycles diurnes etannuels des précipitations en Afrique australe (0°-68°W – 5°S-48°S) pour la période 1998-2006. Les simulations sontconfrontées à un réseau de cent trois stations pluviométriques disponibles au pas de temps horaire et couvrant l'Afrique duSud, et aux données GPCP-1dd à l'échelle de l'ensemble du domaine. Cinq simulations ont été réalisées : quatre utilisentdifférentes paramétrisations de la convection atmosphérique à une résolution de 0.5 x 0.5 degré, afin de tester la sensibilitédes résultats à la physique du modèle. La cinquième expérience résout ex…
An original way to evaluate daily rainfall variability simulated by a regional climate model: the case of South African austral summer rainfall
We discuss the value of a clustering approach as a tool for evaluating daily rainfall output from climate models. Ascendant hierarchical clustering is used to evaluate how well South African recurrent daily rainfall patterns are simulated during the austral summer (December to February 1970–1971 to 1998–1999). A set of 35-km regional climate simulations, run with the WRF model and driven by the ERA40 reanalysis, is chosen as a case study. Six recurrent patterns are identified and compared to the observed clusters obtained by applying the same methodology to 5352 daily rain gauge records. Two of the WRF clusters describe either a persistent and widespread dryness (65% of the days) or pattern…
Role of Indian fluxes in the intraseasonal 10-30 days variability of the African monsoon.
12 pages; International audience; This study focused on the influence of Indian monsoon on the 10-30 days variability of the West African monsoon. One relies on the 500-300 hPa moisture fluxes calculated from specific wind and moisture fields from the ERAInterim reanalysis over the 1998-2008 period. These fluxes carry a signal of a spatio-temporal Rossby wave structure propagating westward from India. In the active phase of high convection of this wave, 500-300 hPa fluxes are Easterly. This high-tropospheric Rossby wave signal from the Indian monsoon area would modulate the dynamics over the Sahel.
On the Angola low interannual variability and its role in modulating ENSO effects in southern Africa
Abstract The Angola low is a summertime low pressure system that affects the convergence of low-level moisture fluxes into southern Africa. Interannual variations of the Angola low reduce the seasonal prediction skills for this region that arise from coupled atmosphere–ocean variability. Despite its importance, the interannual dynamics of the Angola low, and its relationship with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and other coupled modes of variability, are still poorly understood, mostly because of the scarcity of atmospheric data and short-term duration of atmospheric reanalyses in the region. To bypass this issue, we use a long-term (3500 year) run from a 50-km-resolution global coupled…
West African Monsoon influence on the summer Euro-Atlantic circulation
International audience; The West African Monsoon (WAM) influence on the interannual variability of the summer atmospheric circulation over North Atlantic and Europe is investigated over the period 1971-2000. A set of sensitivity experiments performed through the Arpege-Climat atmospheric general circulation model is analyzed, using the so-called "grid-point nudging" technique, where the simulated atmospheric fields in the WAM region are relaxed towards the ERA40 reanalysis. Observations confirm that a sizable part of the Euro-Atlantic circulation variability is related to the WAM, with anomalies of reinforced convection in the Sudan-Sahel region associated with positive North Atlantic Oscil…
A typology for intraseasonal oscillations
This descriptive study attempts to document the diversity of intraseasonal oscillations (ISO) propagative and spatial patterns, as inferred from outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) variability. Main ISO events over the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool are first extracted using a local mode analysis (LMA) applied on the 20–120-d filtered OLR on the 1979–2008 period. One hundred and sixty-nine individual ISO are detected. Their propagative patterns are then objectively regrouped into a few types using a hierarchical agglomerative classification. Three alternative partitionings are retained, depending on the level of details expected from the typology. ISO events first regroup naturally into two well-sepa…
Désagrégation dynamique des pluies de la Tunisie par le modèle climatique régional ARW/WRF.
7 pages; International audience; Ce travail évalue les capacités du modèle climatique régional ARW/WRF (version 3) à reproduire les pluiessaisonnières et annuelles de la Tunisie et du bassin méditerranéen. Les simulations climatiques consistent en un ensemble dedix membres de vingt-et-un ans et sont forcées latéralement par les réanalyses européennes ERA-Interim. La descented'échelle est basée sur deux domaines emboîtés avec un premier domaine de 60 km de résolution qui couvre le bassinméditerranéen et un second domaine (résolution spatiale de 12 km de maille) centré sur la Tunisie. À l'échelle du premierdomaine, WRF reproduit bien la variabilité spatiale des cumuls annuels moyens des pluie…
Coastal Oceanic climate change and variability from 1982 to 2009 around South Africa
Changes and fluctuations in sea surface temperature (SST) around the South African coast are analysed at a monthly scale from 1982 to 2009. There is a statistically significant negative trend of up to 0.5 °C per decade in the southern Benguela from January to August, and a cooling trend of lesser magnitude along the South Coast and in the Port Elizabeth/Port Alfred region from May to August. The cooling is due to an increase in upwelling-favourable south-easterly and easterly winds. There is a positive trend in SST of up to 0.55 °C per decade in most parts of the Agulhas Current system during all months of the year, except for KwaZulu-Natal where warming is in summer. The warming was attri…
Recurrent daily rainfall patterns over South Africa and associated dynamics during the core of the austral summer
This paper investigates the influence of some modes of climate variability on the spatio-temporal rainfall variability over South Africa during the core of the rainy season, December to February (DJF). All analyses are based directly on the rainfall field instead of atmospheric processes and dynamics. An original agglomerative hierarchical clustering approach is used to classify daily rainfall patterns recorded at 5352 stations from DJF 1971 to DJF 1999. Five clusters are retained for analysis. Amongst them, one cluster looks most like the rainfall and circulation mean picture. Another one, representing 37% of the days, describes strong negative rainfall anomalies over South Africa resultin…
Régionalisation des pluies en Tunisie : Apport des simulations Euro-CORDEX
International audience; La variabilité spatio-temporelle des pluies en Tunisie simulées dans ce travail par le modèle climatique régional WRF et issues d’un échantillon de simulations régionales Euro-CORDEX, a été étudiée sur la période 1991-2011. Les erreurs des modèles ont été évaluées par comparaison à un réseau dense de pluviomètres couvrant tout le territoire tunisien. Dans l'ensemble, les modèles régionaux reproduisent de manière satisfaisante la variabilité spatiale des pluies marquée notamment par de forts gradients latitudinaux et altitudinaux, ainsi que la variabilité interannuelle des pluies et ce malgré des biais systématiques. Ces derniers sont secs en hiver et humides en été, …
Relationship between weather regimes and atmospheric rivers in East Antarctica.
25 pages; International audience; Here, we define weather regimes in the East Antarctica—Southern Ocean sector based on daily anomalies of 700 hPa geopotential height derived from ERA5 reanalysis during 1979–2018. Most regimes and their preferred transitions depict synoptic-scale disturbances propagating eastwards off the Antarctic coastline. While regime sequences are generally short, their interannual variability is strongly driven by the polarity of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). Regime occurrences are then intersected with atmospheric rivers (ARs) detected over the same region and period. ARs are equiprobable throughout the year, but clearly concentrate during regimes associated with …
Formation et développement des talwegs tropicaux-tempérés en Afrique australe.
6 pages; International audience; Les talwegs tropicaux-tempérés (TTT) sont des systèmes pluviogènes situés d’Afrique australe et faisant intervenirà la fois la convection tropicale et la dynamique des moyennes latitudes. Ils sont responsables en moyenne de 20% des pluiessaisonnières sud-africaines et durent typiquement entre 3 et 5 jours. Leurs mécanismes de formation sont encorepartiellement inconnus. Une classification en k-means est utilisée ici pour identifier la composante convective des TTT d’unepart, et les perturbations des moyennes latitudes, d’autre part. Les résultats indiquent que les perturbations tempérées sontune condition nécessaire au développement des TTT, mais non suffisa…
Regionalizing Rainfall at Very High Resolution over La Réunion Island: A Case Study for Tropical Cyclone Ando
AbstractEnsemble simulations of Tropical Cyclone (TC) Ando (31 December 2000–9 January 2001) are performed over the southwest Indian Ocean using the nonhydrostatic WRF Model. Nested domains centered over the island of La Réunion allow for the simulation of local rainfall amounts associated with TC Ando at very high resolution (680-m grid spacing). The model is forced by and nudged toward ERA-Interim during the first (1–6) day(s) of the TC’s life cycle. The nudging ends at various dates to constrain either the whole life cycle or only parts of it.As expected, results show weakened member dispersion, as the relaxation lasts longer, with more members producing similar cyclone tracks and intens…
How physical parameterizations can modulate internal variability in a regional climate model
Abstract The authors analyze to what extent the internal variability simulated by a regional climate model is sensitive to its physical parameterizations. The influence of two convection schemes is quantified over southern Africa, where convective rainfall predominates. Internal variability is much larger with the Kain–Fritsch scheme than for the Grell–Dévényi scheme at the seasonal, intraseasonal, and daily time scales, and from the regional to the local (grid point) spatial scales. Phenomenological analyses reveal that the core (periphery) of the rain-bearing systems tends to be highly (weakly) reproducible, showing that it is their morphological features that induce the largest internal …
Évaluation des effets thermiques des leviers d'action visant à réduire l'îlot de chaleur urbain : l'exemple de Dijon.
Climate Change and Urban Heat Island (UHI) combine their effects and lead to increased frequencies and intensities of heat waves in urban environments. Considering the associated public health issues, several actions are possible: the color of the materials, the development of water surfaces or urban vegetation. In Dijon, a network of 60 stations makes it possible to evaluate the potential of these three actions. Analysis of the warm summer 2016 season reveals that the refreshing role of water only occurs during daytime, the effect of bright surfaces (concrete versus bitumen) on the air temperature is only a few tenths of a degree, while vegetation offers the largest refreshing potential. I…
From synoptic to interdecadal variability in southern African rainfall: toward a unified view across time scales.
International audience; During the austral summer season (November–February), southern African rainfall, south of 20°S, has been shown to vary over a range of time scales, from synoptic variability (3–7 days, mostly tropical temperate troughs) to interannual variability (2–8 years, reflecting the regional effects of El Niño–Southern Oscillation). There is also evidence for variability at quasi-decadal (8–13 years) and interdecadal (15–28 years) time scales, linked to the interdecadal Pacific oscillation and the Pacific decadal oscillation, respectively. This study aims to provide an overview of these ranges of variability and their influence on regional climate and large-scale atmospheric c…
Reproductibilité des pluies et de la dynamique atmosphérique en Afrique Australe dans un modèle climatique régional : Approche multiscalaire
30 simulations numériques ne différant que par les conditions initiales de l'atmosphère permettent de documenter la reproductibilité du climat simulé en Afrique australe par un modèle climatique régional. Les simulations portent sur une saison pluvieuse (Décembre-Février 1993-94) proche de la moyenne en termes de pluies. A l'échelle synoptique, les régimes de circulation détectés sont clairement reproductibles d'une expérience à une autre. A des échelles plus fines, le modèle simule correctement les principaux pics pluviométriques et l'alternance entre phases humides et phases sèches. Certains épisodes peu reproductibles sont néanmoins clairement identifiables et correspondent à un contrôle…
Heat wave occurrences over Senegal during spring: regionalization and synoptic patterns.
18 pages; International audience; Based on 12 Senegalese stations of the Global Summary of the Day (GSOD) database (1979–2014), heat waves (HW) are defined for each station in spring (March–April–May, the hottest season in Senegal) as the daily maximum temperature (Tx), minimum temperature (Tn), or average apparent temperature of the day (AT), exceeding the corresponding 95% mobile percentile for at least three consecutive days. A hierarchical cluster analysis used to regionalize HW in these 12 stations is applied to simultaneous occurrences of daily temperature peaks over their 95% mobile percentiles. Three homogeneous zones of four stations each are identified (Zone 1, Zone 2 and Zone 3),…
Influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on Southern African summer rainfall
Rain-causing mechanisms over Southern Africa (south of 15˚S) involve both tropical and temperate dynamics. Most studies focused on the synoptical timescale, while the intraseasonal (20-120 days) variability has more been neglected to date. This study aims at determining whether the dominant mode of intraseasonal variability in the Tropics, namely the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), has a significant impact on Southern African rainfall and associated atmospheric dynamics. The examination of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) over Southern Africa shows indeed significant intraseasonal fluctuations at the 30-60 day timescale, i.e. in the pe- riods that are typically reminiscent of the MJO. In ord…
Le changement climatique : Un précipice en escalier
Point d’étape sur le bouleversement en cours et la forme qu’il revêt..
Trends of mean temperatures and warm extremes in northern tropical Africa (1961-2014) from observed and PPCA-reconstructed time series
Trends in daily maximum (TX) and minimum (TN) temperatures and indices of warm extremes are studied in tropical North Africa, west of the eastern African highlands, from 1961 to 2014. The analysis is based on the concatenation and cross-checking of two observed databases. Due to the large number of missing entries (~25%), a statistical infilling using probabilistic principal component analysis was applied. Averaged over 90 stations, the linear trends of annual mean TX and TN equal respectively +0.021 °C/yr and +0.028 °C/yr. The frequency of very hot days (TX > 35°C) and tropical nights (TN > 20°C), as well as the frequency of daily TX and TN above the 90th percentile (p90) (“warm days” and …
Urban Heat Island (UHI) and heat waves: what relations?
With four years of measurements and alarge sample of stations, the MUSTARDijon network allows for a detailed characterization of the Urban HeatIsland (UHI), a warm season phenomenon. But UHI and maximum temperature values are out of phase at twodistinct time-scales. Seasonally, the maxima of UHI occur from May to July, i.e. before the annual peak oftemperature (July to August). At a daily time-scale, analysis of the two heat waves of July 2015 shows a lag of afew days between the peak of UHI and the heat wave. Two hypotheses are suggested to explain these lags:changes in radiative conditions and/or energy fluxes between the ground surface and the atmosphere.
Durée et fréquence des vagues de chaleur en Afrique tropicale septentrionale selon 5 indices de chaleur
Thermal extremes generate health risks that are increasingly taken into account, including in tropical Africa. This work compares the duration and the frequency of spring heat waves (HWs) in West Africa according to 5 indices: Warm Spell (WS), Heat Index (HI) with and without the relative humidity, Apparent Temperature (AT), and Excess Heat Factor (EHF). The daily relative humidity and temperature data (minimum, maximum, dew point are provided by the GSOD database for the period 1973-2014 and cover 145 stations spread over a large African area (3-24°N; 24°W-36°E). The results show that the duration of the HWs is short on the coast (3 days) and they last longer inland the continent and in th…
Durée et fréquence des vagues de chaleur en Afrique tropicale septentrionale selon 5 indices de chaleur.
Thermal extremes generate health risks that are increasingly taken into account, including in tropical Africa. This work compares the duration and the frequency of spring heat waves (HWs) in West Africa according to 5 indices: Warm Spell (WS), Heat Index (HI) with and without the relative humidity, Apparent Temperature (AT), and Excess Heat Factor (EHF). The daily relative humidity and temperature data (minimum, maximum, dew point are provided by the GSOD database for the period 1973-2014 and cover 145 stations spread over a large African area (3-24°N; 24°W-36°E). The results show that the duration of the HWs is short on the coast (3 days) and they last longer inland the continent and in th…
Relationships between the Antarctic Oscillation, the Madden-Julian Oscillation and ENSO, and consequences for rainfall analysis
Abstract The Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) is the leading mode of atmospheric variability in the Southern Hemisphere mid- and high latitudes (south of 20°S). In this paper, the authors examine its statistical relationships with the major tropical climate signals at the intraseasonal and interannual time scales and their consequences on its potential influence on rainfall variability at regional scales. At the intraseasonal time scale, although the AAO shows its most energetic fluctuations in the 30–60-day range, it is not unambiguously related to the global-scale Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) activity, with in particular no coherent phase relationship with the MJO index. Moreover, in the hi…
Les vagues de chaleur au Sahel : définition et principales caractéristiques spatio-temporelles (1973-2014).
A definition of heat waves (HW) relevant for dry tropical regions is proposed and tested in the Sahel (i.e. duration,intensity and frequency). The Heat Index (HI derivative of Steadman’s (1979) formula) is calculated on dailydata of 145 West African stations from the GSOD database over the period 1973-2014. HWs recorded inSahelian and Sudanese climates mainly occur in boreal spring, i.e. April-May-June. They are more frequentsince 1998 (+ 8% very hot days, T90p) and they become longer (+1.2 days per decade) and more intense (from+0.3 to 0.4 ° C / decade respectively Sudanese and Sahelian climate) on the end of the period 1973-2014.
Les vagues de chaleur au Sahel : caractérisation, mécanismes, prévisibilité.
The mechanisms controlling Sahelian heat wave (HW) variability are examined on the period 1979-2014 using the GSOD observational database and ERA-Interim reanalyses. HW events are analyzed through all terms of the atmospheric energy balance, showing a predominant role of incoming shortwave radiation on daily maximum temperature (Tx) and atmospheric water vapor on minimum temperature (Tn). The low-frequency warming trend, not explained by the previous terms, is thought to relate to the increase of greenhouse gases concentrations, due to anthropogenic emissions. The predictability of Sahelian HW events is assessed for lead times reaching up to 15 days. The model's skill, biases and uncertaint…
Chapitre 3. Caractériser la morphologie urbaine via un SIG pour la simulation numérique du climat urbain.
44 pages; National audience
Résolution spatiale des MNT et qualité de l'estimation des températures et des précipitations en France
DTM spatial resolution and temperature and amount of rainfall estimation in France. The spatial variationanalysis of normal temperature and amount of rainfall in France is performed by simple linear correlations where elevationis the explanatory variable. The latter is provided in seven resolutions: 250,500 m, 1, 2, 4, 8 and 16 km. The correlationcoefficient is used to assess what is the resolution that works best. Temperatures are optimally explained by the 250 mresolution, the coarser resolutions producing lower quality results. The 2km resolution best explains the spatial variation ofrainfall.
Les Local Climate Zones face à la canicule de 2018 à Dijon.
Air temperatures measured by the MUSTARDijon network are analyzed during the summer 2018 (July 24 - August 8) heat wave. The WUDAPT method is applied to Dijon to identify Local Climate Zones (LCZs). Diurnal rhythms and nighttime mean temperatures are analyzed according to LCZs as well as to altitude and distance to the city center. During warm nights, altitude plays a negligible role. The temperatures depend to the distance of the city center. They are also associated to the anthropization summarized by the LCZs. Form of the building and vegetation are the two keys to understand and modulate the night temperatures which have the greatest impact on human health during heat waves.
Bias correction of dynamically downscaled precipitation to compute soil water deficit for explaining year-to-year variation of tree growth over northeastern France.
This paper documents the accuracy of a post-correction method applied to precipitation regionalized by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Regional Climate Model (RCM) for improving simulated rainfall and feeding impact studies. The WRF simulation covers Burgundy (northeastern France) at a 8-km resolution and over a 20-year long period (1989–2008). Previous results show a strong deficiency of the WRF model for simulating precipitation, especially when convective processes are involved. In order to reduce such biases, a Quantile Mapping (QM) method is applied to WRF-simulated precipitation using the mesoscale atmospheric analyses system SAFRAN («Système d'Analyse Fournissant des Rense…