The globalisation divide in the public mind: belief systems on globalisation and their electoral consequences

Many studies describe how globalisation—the global integration of the economic, political, and cultural domains of society—transforms party competition in Western Europe. At the citizen level, however, our knowledge about globalisation attitudes and their electoral consequences remains limited. Using data from a large-scale panel survey of the German public, we show that, first, citizens hold stable rather than fluid attitudes towards the concept of globalisation. Second, these attitudes are rather closely related to positions on specific economic, cultural, and political issues that social scientists understand as facets of globalisation but unrelated to positions on traditional redistribu…

Personality Traits and Foreign Policy Attitudes in German Public Opinion

This article examines the effects of personality traits on attitudes toward foreign policy issues among the German public. Building on previous research, it argues that personality characteristics shape an individual's motivation, goals, and values, thereby providing criteria to evaluate external stimuli and affecting foreign policy opinions. An analysis of survey data from a random sample of Germans eligible to vote confirms that the personality traits play a role in attitudes toward foreign policy issues. By and large, personality affects foreign policy opinions roughly as strongly as traditional factors such as partisanship, ideology, and social background. Among the traits studied, agr…

Identity, Instrumental Self-Interest and Institutional Evaluations: Explaining Public Opinion on Common European Policies in Foreign Affairs and Defence

This paper addresses public opinion on common European policies in foreign affairs and defence. It proposes three models of support for common policies in these fields. Drawing on Eurobarometer data, the analysis shows that instrumental self-interest and territorial identities contribute considerably to explaining support for common foreign affairs and defence policies. Moreover, support for common policies is strongly driven by domain-specific evaluations of the European Union's performance. These findings suggest that popular support for common European policies in foreign affairs and defence has an experiential base. Thus, elites have an incentive to respond to public opinion when makin…

An Absolute Majority for the SPD as an Unintended Consequence? The Land Election in Rhineland-Palatinate 2006

The state election of 2006 in Rheinland-Pfalz resulted in a (bare) majority of seats for the SPD, which allows the party to govern alone for the first time in the history of the state. The CDU, on the other hand, received slightly less than one-third of the vote, an all-time low in its former stronghold. This result was by and large determined by factors at the state level. Yet it had a considerable impact at the federal level: it signalled the end of a string of devastating losses for the SPD, enhanced the standing of minister president Kurt Beck (now the SPD's chairman), and brought to an end the last coalition between the SPD and the FDP. These repercussions notwithstanding, there is no …

Split-ticket voting in German Federal elections, 1953–90: an example of sophisticated balloting?

Abstract Though the German electoral system has provided the opportunity of split-ticket voting since 1953, until now there has only been mere speculation concerning the rationality of ticket-splitting. In this paper we examine the rationality thesis empirically, using data provided by the official representative electoral statistics of the Federal Republic. Modifying the Downsian notion of rational voting, rational ticket-splitting is defined in terms of coalition building and of voters' expectations of the electoral success of candidates and parties. Applying this conceptual framework, it will be shown that the combinations of first and second votes actually chosen by a majority of the Ge…

Why the Pirate Party Won the German Election of 2009 or The Trouble With Predictions: A Response to Tumasjan, A., Sprenger, T. O., Sander, P. G., & Welpe, I. M. “Predicting Elections With Twitter: What 140 Characters Reveal About Political Sentiment”

In their article “Predicting Elections with Twitter: What 140 Characters Reveal About Political Sentiment,” the authors Andranik Tumasjan, Timm O. Sprenger, Philipp G. Sandner, and Isabell M. Welpe (TSSW) the authors claim that it would be possible to predict election outcomes in Germany by examining the relative frequency of the mentions of political parties in Twitter messages posted during the election campaign. In this response we show that the results of TSSW are contingent on arbitrary choices of the authors. We demonstrate that as of yet the relative frequency of mentions of German political parties in Twitter message allows no prediction of election results.

Small worlds with a difference

Political discussions on social network platforms represent an increasingly relevant source of political information, an opportunity for the exchange of opinions and a popular source of quotes for media outlets. We analyzed political communication on Twitter during the run-up to the German general election of 2009 by extracting a directed network of user interactions based on the exchange of political information and opinions. In consonance with expectations from previous research, the resulting network exhibits small-world properties, lending itself to fast and efficient information diffusion. We go on to demonstrate that precisely the highly connected nodes, characteristic for small-world…

The importance of being first : Effects of candidates’ list positions in the 2003 Bavarian state election

Abstract Normative theories of democracy do not pay much attention to technicalities of voting, implicitly assuming that these do not influence voting behaviour and election outcomes significantly. However, it is not clear whether this is actually the case. In this article we analyse whether one such technical detail matters for voting behaviour: the ballot position. Based on previous research in the field, we discuss ballot position effects and deduce hypotheses concerning list position effects in the 2003 Bavarian state election. In the empirical analysis, it turns out that ballot positions had a considerable influence on voting behaviour in this election, especially, the top position on …

Personality Traits, Partisan Attitudes, and Voting Behavior. Evidence from Germany

Political psychology has paid rather little attention to personality traits when explaining political attitudes and political behavior in mass publics. The present paper argues that personality traits contribute to our understanding of political attitude formation and decision making of ordinary citizens. Based on the Five Factor Model of Personality, we state hypotheses regarding the effects of personality traits on partisan attitudes and vote choice in Germany. We test the hypotheses using survey data obtained from a random sample of the Germans eligible to vote. The evidence confirms that personality traits indirectly affect partisan attitudes and voting behavior in Germany in predictabl…

Digital Trace Data in the Study of Public Opinion

In this article, we examine the relationship between metrics documenting politics-related Twitter activity with election results and trends in opinion polls. Various studies have proposed the possibility of inferring public opinion based on digital trace data collected on Twitter and even the possibility to predict election results based on aggregates of mentions of political actors. Yet, a systematic attempt at a validation of Twitter as an indicator for political support is lacking. In this article, building on social science methodology, we test the validity of the relationship between various Twitter-based metrics of public attention toward politics with election results and opinion pol…

When Methodology Interferes With Substance

For campaigners, and also attendant researchers, the advent of the Internet has challenged established ways of doing their respective campaign business. Practitioners, used to running local and media campaigns, can nowadays also resort to elements of web campaigning, while electoral researchers, used to running election studies based on personal or telephone interviews, can now employ online surveys to do their business. However, e-campaigning and online polling suffer from severe deficiencies. Based on online and offline surveys conducted in the run-up to the 2002 German election, we show two things. First, online surveys yield biased results; second, e-campaigning reaches only a tiny fra…

Political interest furthers partisanship in England, Scotland, and Wales

ABSTRACTAccording to much of the literature, partisanship in Britain exercises little independent influence on the vote but merely reflects voters’ prospective and retrospective evaluations of the parties’ performance with regard to their management of the economy, national security, and public services. In this view, partisanship comes close to Fiorina’s model of a “running tally” of political experiences. Similarly, Dalton’s notion of “cognitive mobilization” suggests that seeking out political information should undermine both the need for and the likelihood of party identification. Applying Mixed Markov Latent Class Analysis to the British Election Study Panel 1997–2000, we challenge th…

Ein Wahlkampf ist ein Wahlkampf ist ein Wahlkampf? Anmerkungen zu Konzepten und Problemen der Wahlkampfforschung

Der Bundestagswahlkampf 2005 hatte keine gute Presse. So sahen ihn manche Beobachter in der Schlussphase zu einer Schlammschlacht geraten.1 Politiker bezichtigten sich gegenseitig der Luge, wie auch Journalisten manche Halb- und Unwahrheiten auszumachen meinten. Nicht zuletzt Gerhard Schroder habe vor der Wahl am 18. September 2005 ein „Spektakel virtuoser Weltflucht“2 geboten. Nach diesen Eindrucken zu urteilen, scheint die Kampagne 2005 den Blick der Wahlberechtigten auf die Realitat eher vernebelt und nicht zu politisch aufgeklarten Entscheidungen beigetragen zu haben. Freilich ist der Wahlkampf 2005 nicht die erste Kampagne, uber die dieses Verdikt gesprochen wurde. Denn an Wahlkampfen …

The Mediation of Politics through Twitter: An Analysis of Messages posted during the Campaign for the German Federal Election 2013

Patterns found in digital trace data are increasingly used as evidence of social phenomena. Still, the role of digital services not as mirrors but instead as mediators of social reality has been neglected. We identify characteristics of this mediation process by analyzing Twitter messages referring to politics during the campaign for the German federal election 2013 and comparing the thus emerging image of political reality with established measurements of political reality. We focus on the relationship between temporal dynamics in politically relevant Twitter messages and crucial campaign events, comparing dominant topics in politically relevant tweets with topics prominent in surveys and …

Campaigns, candidate evaluations, and vote choice: Evidence from German federal election campaigns, 1980–2002

Abstract This article examines the effect of German federal election campaigns on citizens' attitudes toward chancellor candidates. Building on previous research, it puts forward three hypotheses tested using survey data gathered during seven German federal election campaigns. The results confirm that campaigns polarize the voters' perception of the chancellor candidates. During campaigns, voters also bring their opinions about candidates into line with their partisan attitudes. Moreover, during three campaigns candidate preferences become increasingly powerful predictors of vote choice. The findings also suggest that election-specific factors condition campaign effects. The paper concludes…

Turkey's bid for EU membership, contrasting views of public opinion, and vote choice. Evidence from the 2005 German federal election

Abstract This paper examines the effects of attitudes toward Turkey's entry into the European Union on vote choice in the 2005 federal election in Germany. Building on prior research, the paper contrasts the elitist and the policy voting view. The evidence shows that citizens' opinions about Turkey's accession to the European Union do not merely reflect group-memberships and political predispositions. They also play a role in influencing voting behaviour with support of Turkey's entry raising the likelihood to vote for the SPD or the Greens while reducing the probability to cast a vote for right-wing parties, the CDU/CSU and the FDP. Finally, low educated voters are disproportionately susce…

Junge Wilde und alte Milde? Jugend und Wahlentscheidung in Deutschland

Das Wahlverhalten Jugendlicher stost in der Offentlichkeit haufig auf erhebliches Interesse. So setzte nach den Wahlerfolgen von NPD und DVU bei den Landtagswahlen 2004 in Brandenburg und Sachsen eine Diskussion uber die relativ hohen Stimmenanteile dieser Parteien unter Jugendlichen ein. Gestutzt auf die Annahme, wer heute rechtsextreme Parteien wahle, werde das auch in der Zukunft tun, wurden nicht selten Sorgen um die Zukunft der bundesdeutschen Demokratie geausert (z.B. Monch 2004). Aus einem analogen Argument wurde in den 1970er Jahren die Erwartung abgeleitet, ihre relativ grose Popularitat unter Jugendlichen werde die SPD auf langere Sicht zur Mehrheitspartei avancieren lassen. Wie d…

12 Twitter-Daten in der Wahlkampfforschung: Datensammlung, Aufarbeitung und Analysebeispiele

Political interest furthers partisanship in England, Scotland, and Wales

According to much of the literature, partisanship in Britain exercises little independent influence on the vote but merely reflects voters’ prospective and retrospective evaluations of the parties’ performance with regard to their management of the economy, national security, and public services. In this view, partisanship comes close to Fiorina’s model of a “running tally” of political experiences. Similarly, Dalton’s notion of “cognitive mobilization” suggests that seeking out political information should undermine both the need for and the likelihood of party identification. Applying Mixed Markov Latent Class Analysis to the British Election Study Panel 1997–2000, we challenge these perc…