Search results for " Smooth"
showing 10 items of 455 documents
Bayesian forecasting with the Holt–Winters model
2010
Exponential smoothing methods are widely used as forecasting techniques in inventory systems and business planning, where reliable prediction intervals are also required for a large number of series. This paper describes a Bayesian forecasting approach based on the Holt–Winters model, which allows obtaining accurate prediction intervals. We show how to build them incorporating the uncertainty due to the smoothing unknowns using a linear heteroscedastic model. That linear formulation simplifies obtaining the posterior distribution on the unknowns; a random sample from such posterior, which is not analytical, is provided using an acceptance sampling procedure and a Monte Carlo approach gives …
Improving demand forecasting accuracy using nonlinear programming software
2006
We address the problem of forecasting real time series with a proportion of zero values and a great variability among the nonzero values. In order to calculate forecasts for a time series, the model coefficients must be estimated. The appropriate choice of values for the smoothing parameters in exponential smoothing methods relies on the minimization of the fitting errors of historical data. We adapt the generalized Holt–Winters formulation so that it can consider the starting values of the local components of level, trend and seasonality as decision variables of the nonlinear programming problem associated with this forecasting procedure. A spreadsheet model is used to solve the problems o…
Elastomeric Electrospun Polyurethane Scaffolds: The Interrelationship Between Fabrication Conditions, Fiber Topology, and Mechanical Properties
2010
Electrospinning has been gaining increasing popularity in the fabrication of engineered tissue scaffolds due to its ability to produce nano to micro scale fibrous sheets. Many investigators have attempted to apply various degrees of control to this process in order to produce fiber meshes with more predictable patterns. These attempts have largely been limited to controlling fiber alignment and have fallen into two categories: physical manipulation of the fibers by pulling them into alignment using a rapidly spinning mandrel[1–3] or manipulation of the electric field during fabrication.[4, 5]
Analytical Prediction of the Flexural Response of External RC Joints with Smooth Rebars
2018
Nel presente lavoro viene presentato un modello analitico in forma chiusa in grado di riprodurre la risposta flessionale monotonica di nodi esterni trave-colonna in c.a. con armature lisce. La colonna viene sottoposta a carico verti-cale costante e la trave ad una forza laterale crescente monotonicamente applicata all’estremità. Il modello si basa sul comportamen-to flessionale di trave e colonna adottando un modello di cerniera plasticità concentrata che include lo scorrimento delle armature della trave. Si assume un dominio sforzo normale-momento bilineare semplificato da cui viene derivato il momento ultimo associato alla forza assiale di progetto. Per il nodo viene adottato un modello c…
A spreadsheet modeling approach to the Holt–Winters optimal forecasting
2001
Abstract The objective of this paper is to determine the optimal forecasting for the Holt–Winters exponential smoothing model using spreadsheet modeling. This forecasting procedure is especially useful for short-term forecasts for series of sales data or levels of demand for goods. The non-linear programming problem associated with this forecasting model is formulated and a spreadsheet model is used to solve the problem of optimization efficiently. Also, a spreadsheet makes it possible to work in parallel with various objective functions (measures of forecast errors) and different procedures for calculating the initial values of the components of the model. Using a scenario analysis, the se…
Non Linear Image Restoration in Spatial Domain
2011
International audience; In the present work, a novel image restoration method from noisy data samples is presented. The restoration was per-formed by using some heuristic approach utilizing data samples and smoothness criteria in spatial domain. Unlike most existing techniques, this approach does not require prior modelling of either the image or noise statistics. The proposed method works in an interactive mode to find the best compromise between the data (mean square error) and the smoothing criteria. The method has been compared with the shrinkage approach, Wiener filter and Non Local Means algorithm as well. Experimental results showed that the proposed method gives better signal to noi…
An Introduction to Kernel Methods
2009
Machine learning has experienced a great advance in the eighties and nineties due to the active research in artificial neural networks and adaptive systems. These tools have demonstrated good results in many real applications, since neither a priori knowledge about the distribution of the available data nor the relationships among the independent variables should be necessarily assumed. Overfitting due to reduced training data sets is controlled by means of a regularized functional which minimizes the complexity of the machine. Working with high dimensional input spaces is no longer a problem thanks to the use of kernel methods. Such methods also provide us with new ways to interpret the cl…
Villification: How the Gut Gets Its Villi
2013
Intestinal Villus Formation The intestinal villi are essential elaborations of the lining of the gut that increase the epithelial surface area for nutrient absorption. Shyer et al. (p. 212 , published online 29 August; see the Perspective by Simons ) show that in both the developing human and chick gut, the villi are formed in a step-wise progression, involving the sequential folding of the endoderm into longitudinal ridges, via a zigzag pattern, to finally form individual villi. These changes are established through the differentiation of the smooth muscle layers of the gut, restricting the expansion of the adjacent proliferating and growing endoderm and mesenchyme, generating compressive …
Redox signaling (cross-talk) from and to mitochondria involves mitochondrial pores and reactive oxygen species
2010
This review highlights the important role of redox signaling between mitochondria and NADPH oxidases. Besides the definition and general importance of redox signaling, the cross-talk between mitochondrial and Nox-derived reactive oxygen species (ROS) is discussed on the basis of 4 different examples. In the first model, angiotensin-II is discussed as a trigger for NADPH oxidase activation with subsequent ROS-dependent opening of mitochondrial ATP-sensitive potassium channels leading to depolarization of mitochondrial membrane potential followed by mitochondrial ROS formation and respiratory dysfunction. This concept was supported by observations that ethidium bromide-induced mitochondrial d…
Manganese superoxide dismutase and aldehyde dehydrogenase deficiency increase mitochondrial oxidative stress and aggravate age-dependent vascular dys…
2008
AimsImbalance between pro- and antioxidant species (e.g. during aging) plays a crucial role for vascular function and is associated with oxidative gene regulation and modification. Vascular aging is associated with progressive deterioration of vascular homeostasis leading to reduced relaxation, hypertrophy, and a higher risk of thrombotic events. These effects can be explained by a reduction in free bioavailable nitric oxide that is inactivated by an age-dependent increase in superoxide formation. In the present study, mitochondria as a source of reactive oxygen species (ROS) and the contribution of manganese superoxide dismutase (MnSOD, SOD-2) and aldehyde dehydrogenase (ALDH-2) were inves…