Search results for " forecast"
showing 10 items of 220 documents
Novel Energy Modelling and Forecasting Tools for Smart Energy Networks
2015
A novel Energy Modelling and Forecasting Tool (EMFT) has been adopted for use in the VIM SEN (Virtual Microgrids for Smart Energy Networks) project and this paper gives an insight of the techniques used to provide vital support to the energy market, in particular to energy aggregators. A brief description of one of the test sites where data has been collected for validation of the EMFT will be outlined and some examples shown. The information and predictions will then be used by a decision support system to dynamically adjust energy delivery and consumption, by giving advice to users and operators on actions they can take to obtain a better match between energy supply and demand that increa…
A Short-Term Data Based Water Consumption Prediction Approach
2019
A smart water network consists of a large number of devices that measure a wide range of parameters present in distribution networks in an automatic and continuous way. Among these data, you can find the flow, pressure, or totalizer measurements that, when processed with appropriate algorithms, allow for leakage detection at an early stage. These algorithms are mainly based on water demand forecasting. Different approaches for the prediction of water demand are available in the literature. Although they present successful results at different levels, they have two main drawbacks: the inclusion of several seasonalities is quite cumbersome, and the fitting horizons are not very large. With th…
Sea breeze thunderstorms in the eastern Iberian Peninsula. Neighborhood verification of HIRLAM and HARMONIE precipitation forecasts
2014
In this study we investigated sea breeze thunderstorms with intense convective activity (i.e., heavy rainfall, hail and gusty winds) that occurred over the eastern Iberian Peninsula (Spain) and were missed by the operational HIRLAM model. We used two grid-spacing setups (5.0. km and 2.5. km) of the hydrostatic HIRLAM model, and the non-hydrostatic spectral HARMONIE suite (2.5. km), to simulate isolated convection associated with sea breezes. The overall aim is to estimate the ability of these three experimental setups, in particular the HARMONIE model as the forthcoming operational numerical weather prediction in most European Weather Services, to correctly simulate convective precipitation…
Multi-model simulations of a convective situation in low-mountain terrain in central Europe
2008
The goal of the present study is to investigate the variability of simulated convective precipitation by three convection-resolving models using different set-ups and initial and boundary conditions. The COSMO, MM5 and WRF models have been used to simulate the atmospheric situation on 12 July 2006, when local convection occurred in central Europe under weak synoptic forcing. The focus of this investigation is on the convective precipitation in the northern Black Forest in South-West Germany. The precipitation fields from the nine model simulations differ considerably. Six simulations capture the convective character of the event. However, they differ considerably in the location and timing …
Classification of precipitation events with a convective response timescale and their forecasting characteristics
2011
[1] The convective timescale τc, which is mainly determined by the ratio of CAPE and precipitation rate, provides a physically-based measure to distinguish equilibrium and non-equilibrium convection. A statistical analysis of this timescale, based upon observational data from radiosonde ascents, rain gauges, and radar for seven warm seasons in Germany, reveals that the equilibrium and non-equilibrium regimes can be regarded as extremes of a continuous distribution. The two regimes characterize very different interactions between the large-scale flow and convection. The quality of precipitation forecasts from a non-hydrostatic regional weather prediction model with parameterized convection d…
Tourism recovery amid COVID-19: The case of Lombardy, Italy
2021
Travel restrictions and social distancing imposed to curb the spread of the new coronavirus have been strongly hitting tourism since March 2020. Tourism forecasting literature addressed the effects of shocks in contexts characterized by a predictable route to recovery. COVID-19 is without precedents. In this article, monthly overnight stays for the period January 2010 to December 2020 are used to estimate the impact of the pandemic in Lombardy, Italy’s most affected region. A model-based approach is implemented, and the number of overnight stays up to December 2023 is forecasted. Four models are compared. Estimation results from an augmented SARIMA model suggest that, provided a new lockdo…
L-Band vegetation optical depth for crop phenology monitoring and crop yield assessment
2018
Vegetation Optical Depth (VOD) at L-band is highly sensitive to the water content and above-ground biomass of vegetation. Hence, it has great potential for monitoring crop phenology and for providing crop yield forecasts. Recently, the Multi-Temporal Dual Channel Algorithm (MT -DCA) has been proposed to retrieve L-band VOD from Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) measurements. In previous research, SMAP VOD has been compared to crop phenology and has been used to derive crop yield estimates. Here, we review and expand these initial research studies. In particular, we quantify the capability of VOD to detect different crop stages, and test different VOD metrics (i.e., maximum, range and inte…
Next-Day Bitcoin Price Forecast
2019
This study analyzes forecasts of Bitcoin price using the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and neural network autoregression (NNAR) models. Employing the static forecast approach, we forecast next-day Bitcoin price both with and without re-estimation of the forecast model for each step. For cross-validation of forecast results, we consider two different training and test samples. In the first training-sample, NNAR performs better than ARIMA, while ARIMA outperforms NNAR in the second training-sample. Additionally, ARIMA with model re-estimation at each step outperforms NNAR in the two test-sample forecast periods. The Diebold Mariano test confirms the superiority of forecast …
A fuzzy decision support tool for demand forecasting
2007
In this paper we present a decision support forecasting system to work with univariate time series based on the generalized exponential smoothing (Holt-Winters) approach. It is conceived as an integrated tool which has been implemented in Visual Basic. For improving the accuracy of the automatic forecasting it uses an optimization-based scheme which unifies the stages of estimation of the parameters and selects the best method using a fuzzy multicriteria approach. The elements of the set of local minima of the non-linear programming problems allow us to build the membership functions of the conflicting objectives. A set of real data is analyzed to show the performance of our forecasting too…
A look into the future of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe : an expert consultation
2021
How will the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic develop in the coming months and years? Based on an expert survey, we examine key aspects that are likely to influence COVID-19 in Europe. The future challenges and developments will strongly depend on the progress of national and global vaccination programs, the emergence and spread of variants of concern, and public responses to nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). In the short term, many people are still unvaccinated, VOCs continue to emerge and spread, and mobility and population mixing is expected to increase over the summer. Therefore, policies that lift restrictions too much and too early risk another damaging wave. This ch…