Search results for "DEFICIT"

MILD COGNITIVE IMPAIRMENT (MCI): LA ZONA GRIGIA

2008

Crises and the EU’s Response: Increasing the Democratic Deficit?

2020

Since the adoption of the Maastricht Treaty and the end of the permissive consensus, the European Union (EU) has—with varying intensity and emphases—been criticized for its democratic deficits. Whereas previous crises often ended up in further integration and strengthening institutions with popular anchoring (notably the European Parliament), this time many commentators are in doubt as crises pile up and common solutions seem hard to find. The EU’s problem is that the technocratic, non-majoritarian bodies dominate policymaking and, on top of that, are not anchored in other sources of legitimacy than its ability to deliver desirable outcomes. In other words, the crises highlight the fact tha…

Searching for Threshold Effects in the Evolution of Budget Deficits: An Application to the Spanish Case

2004

Abstract In this paper, we use recent developments on threshold autoregressive (TAR) models that allow us to derive endogenously threshold effects in the evolution of the Spanish budget deficit. Specifically, a mean-reverting dynamic behaviour of the budget deficit should be expected once such threshold is reached.

Is the budget deficit sustainable when fiscal policy is non-linear? The case of Spain

2006

In this paper, we re-examine the long-run sustainability of budget deficits, when fiscal policy is conducted as a non-linear process. Our empirical methodology makes use of recent developments on threshold cointegration that consider the possibility of a non-linear relationship between government expenditures and revenues. The analysis is applied to the case of Spain, a country that has recently accomplished an important fiscal consolidation. Overall, our results suggest the presence of significant non-linear effects in Spanish fiscal policy, so that fiscal authorities would cut deficits only if they are ‘large’, which would assure in turn their long-run sustainability.

FISCAL READJUSTMENTS IN THE UNITED STATES: A NONLINEAR TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS

2009

We analyze the fiscal adjustment process in the United States using a multivariate threshold vector error regression model. The shift from single-equation to multivariate setting adds value both in terms of our economic understanding of the fiscal adjustment process and the forecasting performance of nonlinear models. We find evidence that fiscal authorities intervene to reduce real per capita deficit only when it reaches a certain threshold and that fiscal adjustment takes place primarily by cutting government expenditure. The results of out-of-sample density forecast and probability forecasts suggest that a shift from a univariate autoregressive model to a multivariate model improves fore…

A wavelet analysis of US fiscal sustainability

2015

Abstract In this paper, we reassess the relationship between primary deficit and lagged debt to GDP ratio (Bohn, 1998), to test for US debt sustainability over the period 1795–2012. Our analysis is rooted in the wavelet domain enabling the detection of interesting patterns and otherwise hidden information. We find evidence of long term fiscal sustainability but only up until 1995 and also we show that governments tend to respond more vigorously to budget deficits when the level of debt is high rather than low.

External imbalances from a GVAR perspective

2021

In this paper we study the drivers governing external disequilibria through a Global VAR (GVAR) analysis applied to a group of 24 countries during the period 1972-2017. The GVAR methodology is particularly well suited for our research question. First, it permits to measure the effects of both, domestic and foreign country-specific shocks. Second, it allows to analyze not only the long-run relationships, but also the dynamics through generalized impulse-response functions. Third, it enables to test many hypotheses from a macroeconomic perspective and the existence of spillovers. Our results show evidence of international financial integration in terms of the fulfillment of the real interest …

The effects of budget deficit on national saving in the OECD

2000

Abstract In this paper, we estimate a structural VAR using a panel of OECD countries, which includes national saving and budget deficit, both as the ratio to GDP, to test the Ricardian Equivalence hypothesis. In this framework, we separate saving and deficit movements into two types of shocks, associated with structural parameters of these economies. Our results suggest that Ricardian Equivalence did not work in our sample of OECD countries, since private saving compensated only a small fraction budget deficit. This supports the interpretation that the large budget deficits have been a very important factor behind the significant increase in real interest rates in the eighties and early nin…

Exposure to mercury among 9-year-old children and neurobehavioural function

2021

Abstract Mercury (Hg) is an environmental neurotoxicant whose main route of exposure in humans is the consumption of seafood. The aim of this study was to explore the relationship between Hg exposure at 9 years old and behaviour assessed at 9 and 11 years old. Study subjects were mother–child pairs participating in the INMA (Environment and Childhood) Project in Valencia (Spain). Total Hg (THg) was measured in hair samples from the children at 9 years old. Behaviour and emotions were assessed at 9 (n = 472) years and 11 (n = 385) years of age using the Child Behaviour Checklist test (CBCL) and the Conners Parents Rating Scale-Revised: Short Form (CPRS-R:S). Furthermore, the attention functi…

Disruption of the ATXN1-CIC complex causes a spectrum of neurobehavioral phenotypes in mice and humans

2017

International audience; Gain-of-function mutations in some genes underlie neurodegenerative conditions, whereas loss-of-function mutations in the same genes have distinct phenotypes. This appears to be the case with the protein ataxin 1 (ATXN1), which forms a transcriptional repressor complex with capicua (CIC). Gain of function of the complex leads to neurodegeneration, but ATXN1-CIC is also essential for survival. We set out to understand the functions of the ATXN1-CIC complex in the developing forebrain and found that losing this complex results in hyperactivity, impaired learning and memory, and abnormal maturation and maintenance of upper-layer cortical neurons. We also found that CIC …