Search results for "Forecast"

Combining a data-driven approach with seasonal forecast data to predict reservoir water volume in the Mediterranean area

2023

Prolonged droughts and water scarcity have become more frequent in recent years, exacerbating the problem of the artificial reservoirs management in the Mediterranean area. This study proposes a methodology which combines a Nonlinear AutoRegressive network with eXogenous input (NARX) data-driven model with Seasonal Forecasts (SFs) data, with the aim to predict the water volume stored in reservoirs at a mid-term scale, as requested by the local authority. The methodology is applied to four Sicilian reservoirs that experienced water scarcity in the recent past. SFs produced at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting are used to force the NARX models. Also, the reservoirs are …

How do normalization schemes affect net spillovers? A replication of the Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) study

2019

Abstract This paper replicates the Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) study on the connectedness of the commodity market and three other financial markets: the stock market, the bond market, and the FX market, based on the Generalized Forecast Error Variance Decomposition, GEFVD. We show that the net spillover indices (of directional connectedness), used to assess the net contribution of one market to overall risk in the system, are sensitive to the normalization scheme applied to the GEFVD. We show that, considering data generating processes characterized by different degrees of persistence and covariance, a scalar-based normalization of the Generalized Forecast Error Variance Decomposition is pref…

Asymmetric semi-volatility spillover effects in EMU stock markets

2018

Abstract The aim of this paper is to quantify the strength and the direction of semi-volatility spillovers between five EMU stock markets over the 2000–2016 period. We use upside and downside semi-volatilities as proxies for downside risk and upside opportunities. In this way, we aim to complement the literature, which has focused mainly on the contemporaneous correlation between positive and negative returns, with the evidence of asymmetry also in semi-volatility transmission. For this purpose, we apply the Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) methodology, based on a generalized forecast error variance decomposition, to downside and upside realized semi-volatility series. While the analysis of Diebol…

Predicting the environmental suitability for onchocerciasis in Africa as an aid to elimination planning

2021

Recent evidence suggests that, in some foci, elimination of onchocerciasis from Africa may be feasible with mass drug administration (MDA) of ivermectin. To achieve continental elimination of transmission, mapping surveys will need to be conducted across all implementation units (IUs) for which endemicity status is currently unknown. Using boosted regression tree models with optimised hyperparameter selection, we estimated environmental suitability for onchocerciasis at the 5 × 5-km resolution across Africa. In order to classify IUs that include locations that are environmentally suitable, we used receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis to identify an optimal threshold for suitabil…

Radiomic analysis reveals DCE-MRI features for prediction of molecular subtypes of breast cancer.

2017

The purpose of this study was to investigate the role of features derived from breast dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (DCE-MRI) and to incorporated clinical information to predict the molecular subtypes of breast cancer. In particular, 60 breast cancers with the following four molecular subtypes were analyzed: luminal A, luminal B, human epidermal growth factor receptor-2 (HER2)-over-expressing and basal-like. The breast region was segmented and the suspicious tumor was depicted on sequentially scanned MR images from each case. In total, 90 features were obtained, including 88 imaging features related to morphology and texture as well as dynamic features from tumor and …

Soft tissue sarcomas in the precision medicine era: new advances in clinical practice and future perspectives

2018

Soft tissue sarcomas (STSs) represent a rare and heterogeneous group of solid tumours derived from mesenchymal progenitors and account for 1% of all adult malignancies. Although in the last decade anthracycline-based chemotherapy single agent or in combinations has been able to improve clinical benefits, prognosis is still poor and STSs represent an important unmet medical need. Continuous advances in cancer genetics and genomics have contributed to change management paradigms of STSs as it occurred for other solid tumours. Several treatments have been recently developed with the specific aim of targeting different cell pathways and immune-checkpoints that have been recognized to drive tumo…

The treatment of advanced gastric cancer: current strategies and future perspectives.

2008

Health policy model: long-term predictive results associated with the management of hepatitis C virus-induced diseases in Italy

2014

Francesco Saverio Mennini,1,2 Andrea Marcellusi,1,3 Massimo Andreoni,4 Antonio Gasbarrini,5 Salvatore Salomone,6 Antonio Craxì71Centre for Economic and International Studies (CEIS) – Economic Evaluation and HTA (EEHTA) Faculty of Economics, University of Rome Tor Vergata, Rome, Italy; 2Institute of Leadership and Management in Health, Kingston University, London, UK; 3Department of Demography, University of Rome La Sapienza, Rome, Italy; 4Department of Public Health and Cell Biology, School of Medicine, University of Rome Tor Vergata, Rome, Italy; 5Gastroenterology Division, Catholic University of the Sacred Heart of Rome, School of Medicine, Rome, Italy; 6Department of…

Household Optimism and Borrowing

2012

A unique Finnish household-level data from 1994 to 2009 allow us to measure how households’ financial expectations are related to the subsequent outcomes. We use the difference between the two to measure forecast errors and household optimism and link the errors to households’ borrowing behaviour. We find that households making greatest optimistic forecast errors carry greater levels of debt and are most likely to suffer from excessive debt loads (overindebtedness). They also are less attentive to forecast errors than their pessimistic counterparts when forming their expectations for a subsequent period.

Multiple-criteria cash-management policies with particular liquidity terms

2019

Abstract Eliciting policies for cash management systems with multiple assets is by no means straightforward. Both the particular relationship between alternative assets and time delays from control decisions to availability of cash introduce additional difficulties. Here we propose a cash management model to derive short-term finance policies when considering multiple assets with different expected returns and particular liquidity terms for each alternative asset. In order to deal with the inherent uncertainty about the near future introduced by cash flows, we use forecasts as a key input to the model. We express uncertainty as lack of predictive accuracy and we derive a deterministic equiv…