6533b854fe1ef96bd12af685
RESEARCH PRODUCT
Predicting the environmental suitability for onchocerciasis in Africa as an aid to elimination planning
Fereshteh AnsariFereshteh AnsariRichard C. FranklinNaznin HossainRodrigo Sarmiento-suárezRodrigo Sarmiento-suárezMahdi BohluliIrena IlicAnwar FarajSoosanna Kumary ChattuSanni YayaSanni YayaHagos Degefa HidruMorteza ShamsizadehEhsan SadeghiBach Xuan TranLeila ZakiMohammad MiriMaha El TantawiMaciej BanachMaciej BanachHasan YusefzadehKira A BarbreChigozie Jesse UnekeMehdi NaderiBehzad Karami MatinYunquan ZhangVahid Yazdi-feyzabadiEmma Elizabeth SpurlockZahid A ButtNuruzzaman KhanNuruzzaman KhanRobert L. ThompsonMehdi HosseinzadehRovshan KhalilovRovshan KhalilovUsman IqbalK M ShivakumarLeili TapakLeili TapakChris A SchmidtPriya RathiShanshan LiBhaskaran UnnikrishnanChuanhua YuElizabeth A. CromwellElizabeth A. CromwellDavood AnvariHoa Thi DoAbdullah Al MamunObinna OnwujekweSerge ResnikoffSerge ResnikoffMajid Fasihi HarandiJoshua C. P. OsborneFarahnaz JoukarAso Mohammad DarweshRohollah KalhorTurki AlanziKatie M DonkersAmir KasaeianAmir KasaeianEirini SkiadaresiAleksandra BaracSimon I. HaySimon I. HayPaul S. F. YipTomislav MestrovicZhi-jiang ZhangKatherine GassCuong Tat NguyenGurudatta NaikJoshua LongbottomSomayeh BohlouliAziz RezapourHuong Lan Thi NguyenKhaled KhatabKhaled KhatabMohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen GubariAhmed Omar BaliTemesgen Yihunie AkaluPaul H. LeeVahid AlipourKebede DeribeKebede DeribeMegan F. SchippZiyad Al-alyZiyad Al-alyBiagio SimonettiMasoud MoradiJalal ArablooReza RawassizadehSaif UllahSeth Christopher Yaw AppiahSeth Christopher Yaw AppiahDemelash Abewa EleminehAbedin SaghafipourFakher RahimFakher RahimTinuke O OlagunjuKimberly B. JohnsonSouranshu ChatterjeeSalvatore RubinoNataliya FoigtOlayinka Stephen IlesanmiOlayinka Stephen IlesanmiTaras KavetskyyTaras KavetskyyCarlo La VecchiaEduarda FernandesMohsen MazidiClaudiu HerteliuClaudiu HerteliuSojib Bin ZamanSojib Bin ZamanAziz SheikhAziz SheikhYong YuDavid Laith RawafDavid Laith RawafHassan Magdy Abd El RazekNatalie V S Vinkeles MelchersSamath D DharmaratneSamath D DharmaratneSamath D DharmaratneEnrico RubagottiFahad AlaneziMasood Ali ShaikhMasoud ForoutanB. Suresh Kumar ShettyMilena IlicMelese Abate RetaDian KusumaDian KusumaAli ManafiKrittika BhattacharyyaGiovanni DamianiGiovanni DamianiKanaan Hamagharib AbdullahDesalegn Tadese MengistuVan C. LansinghTill BärnighausenTill BärnighausenBenjamin F. ArnoldNatalie Maria CormierZulfiqar A BhuttaZulfiqar A BhuttaAhmad DaryaniAli BijaniJae Il ShinSamer HamidiJasvinder A. SinghJasvinder A. SinghMohsen BayatiTomohide YamadaZubair KabirMuhammed Magdy Abd El RazekJonathan F. MosserGbenga A. KayodeMartin Amogre AyanoreShahin SoltaniArvin Haj-mirzaianArvin Haj-mirzaianMohammad Ali MansourniaSalah Eddin KarimiAlan J ThomsonDaniel DiazDaniel DiazAhamarshan Jayaraman NagarajanAdrian PanaSalman RawafSalman RawafOliver J. BradyBirhanu Geta MeharieYousef FatahiSadia BibiBogdan OanceaMasoud MoghadaszadehKelemu Tilahun KibretValery L. FeiginValery L. FeiginSaad M.a. DahlawiTed R. MillerTed R. MillerNicola Luigi BragazziAtif Amin BaigMaryam ZamanianKate E. LegrandSalahuddin MohammedSalahuddin MohammedYuming GuoYuming GuoIrfan UllahHebat Allah Salah A. YousofMowafa HousehIonut NegoiNaohiro YonemotoReza MohammadpourhodkiHadi PourjafarNavid ManafiNavid ManafiNeda KianipourAbraham Getachew KelboreVictor AdekanmbiSeid Tiku MeretaOlalekan A. UthmanArash ZiapourOlatunji O. AdetokunbohOlatunji O. AdetokunbohTrang Huyen NguyenSeyed Sina Naghibi IrvaniFrancesco Saverio ViolanteMonika SawhneyPaula MoragaRahmatollah MoradzadehMu'awiyyah Babale SufiyanMohammad Hifz Ur RahmanMaría-gloria BasáñezVijay Kumar ChattuMustafa Geleto AnshaMona M. KhaterAndrew T OlagunjuAndrew T OlagunjuEjaz Ahmad KhanDavide GuidoKiomars SharafiS. Mohammad SajadiS. Mohammad SajadiFrancisco Rogerlândio Martins-meloTarig B. HigaziAfshin MalekiAfshin MalekiAbdollah Mohammadian-hafshejaniSoewarta KosenAmin SoheiliFélix CarvalhoYun Jin KimCatalina Liliana AndreiAli Kazemi KaryaniEhsan AhmadpourThomas R. UnnaschMohsen AfaridehMohsen AfaridehTakahiro TabuchiShreya ShirudeMarcel AusloosMarcel AusloosMaysaa El Sayed ZakiHaileab Fekadu WoldeAmira ShaheenShafiu MohammedShafiu MohammedRajan NikbakhshTewodros Eshete WondeEndalkachew Worku MengeshaJacek Jerzy JozwiakMuktar Beshir AhmedMuktar Beshir AhmedEugenio TrainiLeila R KalankeshKris J. KrohnColm McalindenWalter MendozaMaryam KeramatiRavi Prakash JhaDavid M. PigottDavid M. PigottElex HillAbdallah M. SamyFarah Daoudsubject
OncocercosisDecision AnalysisRC955-962Onchocerciasislaw.inventionGeographical LocationsMedical Conditions0302 clinical medicinelawArctic medicine. Tropical medicineMedicine and Health Sciences030212 general & internal medicineOnchocerca11 Medical and Health SciencesData ManagementbiologyPharmaceuticswc_695Enfermedades ParasitariasOnchocerciasi3. Good healthInfectious DiseasesGeographyTransmission (mechanics)Helminth InfectionsEngineering and TechnologyMass Drug AdministrationOnchocercaPublic aspects of medicineRA1-1270Management EngineeringCartographyHumanResearch ArticleNeglected Tropical DiseasesComputer and Information SciencesDrug Administration030231 tropical medicineDecision treewa_395Dermatologywc_765Environmentwc_885Research and Analysis MethodsSkin Diseases03 medical and health sciencesDrug TherapySDG 3 - Good Health and Well-beingDiagnostic MedicineTropical MedicineParasitic DiseasesmedicineHumansDisease EradicationSpatial analysisIvermectinData collectionReceiver operating characteristicData VisualizationDecision TreesPublic Health Environmental and Occupational Health06 Biological SciencesOnchocerciasis ; Elimination planning ; Africa ; Implementation units ; Public healthTropical Diseasesmedicine.diseasebiology.organism_classificationHealth CareROC CurvePeople and PlacesAfricaHealth StatisticsMorbidityOnchocerciasisScale (map)Forecastingdescription
Recent evidence suggests that, in some foci, elimination of onchocerciasis from Africa may be feasible with mass drug administration (MDA) of ivermectin. To achieve continental elimination of transmission, mapping surveys will need to be conducted across all implementation units (IUs) for which endemicity status is currently unknown. Using boosted regression tree models with optimised hyperparameter selection, we estimated environmental suitability for onchocerciasis at the 5 × 5-km resolution across Africa. In order to classify IUs that include locations that are environmentally suitable, we used receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis to identify an optimal threshold for suitability concordant with locations where onchocerciasis has been previously detected. This threshold value was then used to classify IUs (more suitable or less suitable) based on the location within the IU with the largest mean prediction. Mean estimates of environmental suitability suggest large areas across West and Central Africa, as well as focal areas of East Africa, are suitable for onchocerciasis transmission, consistent with the presence of current control and elimination of transmission efforts. The ROC analysis identified a mean environmental suitability index of 0·71 as a threshold to classify based on the location with the largest mean prediction within the IU. Of the IUs considered for mapping surveys, 50·2% exceed this threshold for suitability in at least one 5 × 5-km location. The formidable scale of data collection required to map onchocerciasis endemicity across the African continent presents an opportunity to use spatial data to identify areas likely to be suitable for onchocerciasis transmission. National onchocerciasis elimination programmes may wish to consider prioritising these IUs for mapping surveys as human resources, laboratory capacity, and programmatic schedules may constrain survey implementation, and possibly delaying MDA initiation in areas that would ultimately qualify.
| year | journal | country | edition | language |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-07-28 | PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases |