Search results for "bayesian"
showing 10 items of 604 documents
Statistical methods for adaptive river basin management and monitoring
2018
Decision-making at different phases of adaptive river basin management planning rely largely on the information that is gained through environmental monitoring. The aim of this thesis was to develop and test statistical assessment tools presumed to be particularly useful for evaluating existing monitoring designs, converting monitoring data into management information and quantifying uncertainties. River basin scale monitoring was performed using a wireless sensor network and a data quality control system and maintenance effort was assessed. National-scale, traditional monitoring data and linear mixed effect modelling were used to estimate the uncertainty in two status class metrics (total …
A Bayesian Reconstruction of a Historical Population in Finland, 1647–1850
2020
This article provides a novel method for estimating historical population development. We review the previous literature on historical population time-series estimates and propose a general outline to address the well-known methodological problems. We use a Bayesian hierarchical time-series model that allows us to integrate the parish-level data set and prior population information in a coherent manner. The procedure provides us with model-based posterior intervals for the final population estimates. We demonstrate its applicability by estimating the long-term development of Finlands population from 1647 onward and simultaneously place the country among the very few to have an annual popula…
Reti bayesiane per l’indentificazione delle migliori strategie di gestione idraulica di un bacino urbano
2011
Latest results from CUPID-0
2022
International audience; CUPID-0 is a pilot experiment in scintillating cryogenic calorimetry for the search of neutrino-less double beta decay. 26 ZnSe crystals were operated continuously in the first project phase (March 2017 - December 2018), demonstrating unprecedented low levels of background in the region of interest at the Q-value of $^{82}\rm{Se}$. From this successful experience comes a demonstration of full alpha to beta/gamma background separation, the most stringent limits on the $^{82}\rm{Se}$ neutrino-less double beta decay, as well as the most precise measurement of the $^{82}$Se half-life. After a detector upgrade, CUPID-0 began its second and last phase (June 2019 - February…
Causal Models for Monitoring University Ordinary Financing Fund
2012
Recently iterated decreasing government transfers and an increasing proportion of budget allotted basing on competitive performances, took Italian Universities started struggling with competition for funds, in particular for the University Ordinary Financing Fund (FFO). Aim of this paper is monitoring variables responsible for FFO indicators, where monitoring means: describing, analysing retrospectively, predicting and intervening on variables responsible for indicators. All this aims can be achieved by statistical techniques that should be theoretically equipped with the distinction between predicting under observation and predicting under intervention, in order to provide correct answers …
Bayesian Modeling of caries onset and progression: the Belo Horizonte Caries Prevention Study
2011
Implementing ecosystem approach to fishery management: advances and new tools
2013
Desde la antigüedad, la pesca ha sido una fuente importante de alimentos para la humanidad, así como fuente de empleo y beneficios económicos para quienes se dedican a esta actividad. Sin embargo, con el aumento de los conocimientos científicos y la evolución dinámica de la pesca se hizo evidente de que los recursos acuáticos, aunque renovables, no eran infinitos y era necesario gestionar adecuadamente su contribución al bienestar nutricional, económico y el bienestar social de la población mundial para un crecimiento y desarrollo sostenible. En los últimos años, la pesca mundial se ha convertido en un sector dinámico y de desarrollo de la industria alimentaria. Los estados costeros han pro…
Some contributions in disease mapping modeling
2020
Disease mapping ha recibido un gran interés durante las tres últimas décadas. Esta área de investigación persigue el estudio de la distribución geográfica de eventos relacionados con la salud, tales como la mortalidad o la incidencia de enfermedades, agregados en unidades geográficas, con el fin de identificar principalmente aquellas localizaciones que presentan un mayor riesgo. La aplicación de métodos estadísticos avanzados para llevar a cabo las estimaciones de los riesgos resulta fundamental para obtener estimaciones precisas y profundizar en el entendimiento de la distribución geográfica de las enfermedades. En esta tesis nos centramos en la aplicación y evaluación de varias propuestas…
Copulation duration, but not paternity share, potentially mediates inbreeding avoidance in Drosophila montana
2014
Studying the incidence of inbreeding avoidance is important for understanding the evolution of mating systems, especially in the context of mate choice for genetic compatibility. We investigated whether inbreeding avoidance mechanisms have evolved in the malt fly, Drosophila montana, by measuring mating latency (a measure of male attractiveness), copulation duration, days to remating, offspring production, and the proportion of offspring sired by the first (P1) and second (P2) male to mate in full-sibling and unrelated pairs. SNP markers were used for paternity analysis and for calculating pairwise relatedness values (genotype sharing) between mating pairs. We found 18 % inbreeding depressi…