Search results for "certainty"
showing 10 items of 1057 documents
Erosion of Lizard Diversity by Climate Change and Altered Thermal Niches
2010
It is predicted that climate change will cause species extinctions and distributional shifts in coming decades, but data to validate these predictions are relatively scarce. Here, we compare recent and historical surveys for 48 Mexican lizard species at 200 sites. Since 1975, 12% of local populations have gone extinct. We verified physiological models of extinction risk with observed local extinctions and extended projections worldwide. Since 1975, we estimate that 4% of local populations have gone extinct worldwide, but by 2080 local extinctions are projected to reach 39% worldwide, and species extinctions may reach 20%. Global extinction projections were validated with local extinctions o…
A global occurrence database of the Atlantic blue crab Callinectes sapidus
2021
The Atlantic blue crab Callinectes sapidus is a portunid native to the western Atlantic, from New England to Uruguay. The species was introduced in Europe in 1901 where it has become invasive; additionally, a significant northward expansion has been emphasized in its native range. Here we present a harmonized global compilation of C. sapidus occurrences from native and non-native distribution ranges derived from online databases (GBIF, BISON, OBIS, and iNaturalist) as well as from unpublished and published sources. The dataset consists of 40,388 geo-referenced occurrences, 39,824 from native and 564 from non-native ranges, recorded in 53 countries. The implementation of quality controls imp…
Hierarchical log Gaussian Cox process for regeneration in uneven-aged forests
2021
We propose a hierarchical log Gaussian Cox process (LGCP) for point patterns, where a set of points x affects another set of points y but not vice versa. We use the model to investigate the effect of large trees to the locations of seedlings. In the model, every point in x has a parametric influence kernel or signal, which together form an influence field. Conditionally on the parameters, the influence field acts as a spatial covariate in the intensity of the model, and the intensity itself is a non-linear function of the parameters. Points outside the observation window may affect the influence field inside the window. We propose an edge correction to account for this missing data. The par…
Variational Approximations for Generalized Linear Latent Variable Models
2017
Generalized linear latent variable models (GLLVMs) are a powerful class of models for understanding the relationships among multiple, correlated responses. Estimation, however, presents a major challenge, as the marginal likelihood does not possess a closed form for nonnormal responses. We propose a variational approximation (VA) method for estimating GLLVMs. For the common cases of binary, ordinal, and overdispersed count data, we derive fully closed-form approximations to the marginal log-likelihood function in each case. Compared to other methods such as the expectation-maximization algorithm, estimation using VA is fast and straightforward to implement. Predictions of the latent variabl…
The role of noise on the steady state distributions of phytoplankton populations
2016
The spatio-temporal behaviour of total chlorophyll concentration is investigated in the middle of the Tyrrhenian Sea by using a stochastic approach. The study is based on a reaction-diffusion-taxis model, which is used to analyse the dynamics of five phytoplankton groups, responsible for about 80% of the total chlorophyll a inside the euphotic zone of the water column. The analysis is performed by considering: (i) the intraspecific competition of the phytoplanktonic groups for limiting factors, i.e. light intensity and nutrient concentration, (ii) the seasonal changes of environmental variables, and (iii) the random fluctuations of the components of the velocity field and temperature. Speci…
Autonomous ultrasonic inspection using Bayesian optimisation and robust outlier analysis
2020
The use of robotics is beginning to play a key role in automating the data collection process in Non Destructive Testing (NDT). Increasing the use of automation quickly leads to the gathering of large quantities of data, which makes it inefficient, perhaps even infeasible, for a human to parse the information contained in them. This paper presents a solution to this problem by making the process of NDT data acquisition an autonomous one as opposed to an automatic one. In order to achieve this, the robotic data acquisition task is treated as an optimisation problem, where one seeks to find locations with the highest indication of damage. The resulting algorithm combines damage detection tech…
Predictive Model Markup Language (PMML) Representation of Bayesian Networks: An Application in Manufacturing
2018
International audience; Bayesian networks (BNs) represent a promising approach for the aggregation of multiple uncertainty sources in manufacturing networks and other engineering systems for the purposes of uncertainty quantification, risk analysis, and quality control. A standardized representation for BN models will aid in their communication and exchange across the web. This article presents an extension to the predictive model markup language (PMML) standard for the representation of a BN, which may consist of discrete variables, continuous variables, or their combination. The PMML standard is based on extensible markup language (XML) and used for the representation of analytical models…
Registration of Surfaces Minimizing Error Propagation for a One-Shot Multi-Slit Hand-Held Scanner
2008
We propose an algorithm for the on-line automatic registration of multiple 3D surfaces acquired in a sequence by a new hand-held laser scanner. The laser emitter is coupled with an optical lens that spreads the light forming 19 parallel slits that are projected to the scene and acquired with subpixel accuracy by a camera. Splines are used to interpolate the acquired profiles to increase the sample of points and Delaunay triangulation is used to obtain the normal vectors at every point. A point-to-plane pair-wise registration method is proposed to align the surfaces in pairs while they are acquired, conforming paths and eventually cycles that are minimized once detected. The algorithm is spe…
Sustainable growth and environmental catastrophes
2017
Abstract In the standard AK growth model we introduce the threat of an ecological catastrophe and study the consequences for the economic variables in the long-run. We extend the basic framework by considering two environmental externalities: the first one is local and gives account of the marginal damage from emissions flow; the second one is aggregate, or global, and relates to the extreme damage which may happen if the accumulated stock of pollutants is on the threshold of a worldwide catastrophe. In this context dominated by market failures, we focus on the socially optimal solution and the search of conditions for sustainability. We identify the efficient balanced growth path, which ma…
Uncertainty about the evidence on untargeted antifungal treatment
2016
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