Search results for "scenario"
showing 10 items of 158 documents
Sectoral policies as drivers of forest management and ecosystems services: A case study in Bavaria, Germany
2023
European countries have national sectoral polices to regulate and promote the provision of a wide range of forest ecosystems services (FES). However, potential incoherencies among these policies can negatively affect the efficient provision of FES. In this work, we evaluated the coherence among three national policies from Germany and their ability to effectively provide FES in the future: the Forest Strategy 2020 (FS), the National Strategy on Biological Diversity (BDS), and the German National Policy Strategy on Bioeconomy (BES). Using forest inventory data from the Federal State of Bavaria, we simulated a range of forest management options under three climate trajectories for 100 years i…
User-Centered Design of a Scenario-Based Serious Game: Game-Based Teaching of Future Healthcare
2020
A scenario-based serious game for teaching about healthcare solutions was developed and tested in multiple iterations. The serious game captures the complexity of a real-world healthcare scenario, projecting it into a “scenario system” that can be accessed by the game participants to explore and experience the playthrough of a critical healthcare situation. The aim is to teach about existing health technology, and its uses and interactions between healthcare professionals, technologies, and patients. The platform for the serious game is mobile, such that different locations can be chosen for different scenarios. Actions of the participants trigger further actions, tasks, and storyline progr…
Water erosion prediction by stochastic and empirical models in the Mediterranean: A case study in Northern Sicily (Italy)
2012
The present thesis aimed to explore the methodological advantages as well as limitations in applying different modelling approaches to predict water soil erosion in Mediterranean environments. The research was accomplished in the central northern part of Sicily (Italy), considering this region to be representative of Mediterranean environmental conditions. In this region soil degradation problems, due to water erosion are becoming more and more serious. Consequently, defining models being able to predict erosion susceptibility and to discriminate environmental factors causing erosion is important to protect soil resources. The prediction of the spatial distribution of soil erosion processes…
Life-Cycle Assessment Applied to Future Scenarios of Electricity Generation in Sicily
2018
Fighting global warming and increasing the energy security are some of the most relevant objectives of the European energy policy. Thus, defining potential low carbon pathways for the energy sector is of paramount importance in order to identify strategies with the lowest impact on climate. This paper presents an overview of environmental assessment of future electricity scenarios in Sicily (Italy), for 2020 and 2030, characterized by a high exploitation of renewable energy sources. Authors apply the Life Cycle Assessment methodology, according to the standard of the ISO 14040 series, in order to evaluate the environmental impacts of electricity generation in the future scenarios in compari…
Risk profiles for re-profiling sovereign debt
2015
Purpose – This paper aims to use a risk management approach for re-profiling of sovereign debt. It develops profiles that trade off expected cost of financing alternative debt structures against their risk. The risk profiles are particularly informative for countries facing sovereign debt crisis, as they allow us to identify, with high probability, debt unsustainability. Risk profiles for two eurozone countries with excessive debt, Cyprus and Italy, were developed. In addition, risk profiles were developed for a proposal to impose debt sanctions in the Ukrainian crisis and it was shown that the financial impact could be substantial. Design/methodology/approach – Using scenario analysis, a r…
La cultura ci salverà? Processi di touristification a base culturale nel centro storico di Palermo
2023
Negli ultimi tre decenni la cultura ha avuto un ruolo chiave nella costruzione delle politiche urbane, divenendo uno strumento decisivo nella definizione delle strategie di sviluppo economico e nell’accesso alla competizione globale che caratterizzano l’attuale regime di neoliberismo urbano (Miles e Paddison 2005). Anche nel sud Europa la cosiddetta rigenerazione a base culturale ha rappresentato e continua ancora oggi a rappresentare una vera e propria ortodossia urbana, che trova nel turismo tanto una ragione di esistenza quanto un campo di attuazione. In particolare, negli ultimi anni i centri storici di molte città sudeuropee sono stati oggetto di trasformazioni profonde in cui pratiche…
A scenario-based assessment of the tsunami hazard in Palermo, northern Sicily, and the southern Tyrrhenian Sea
2020
A Methodology for Modeling and Optimizing Social Systems
2020
[EN] A system methodology for modeling and optimizing social systems is presented. It allows constructing dynamical models formulated stochastically, i.e., their results are given by confidence intervals. The models provide optimal intervention ways to reach the stated objectives. Two optimization methods are used: (1) to test strategies and scenarios and (2) to optimize with a genetic algorithm. The application case presented is a small nonformal education Spanish business. First, the model is validated in the 2008-2012 period, and subsequently, the optimal way to obtain a maximum profit in the 2013-2025 period is obtained using the two methods.
Transition to sustainability: Italian scenarios towards a low-carbon economy
2014
This paper analyzes different policies that may promote the transition to sustainability, with a particular focus on the energy sector. We present a dynamic simulation model where three different strategies for sustainability are identified: reduction in GHG emissions, improvements in energy efficiency and the development of the renewable energy sector. Our aim is to evaluate the dynamics that those strategies may produce in the economy, looking at different performance indicators: rate of growth, unemployment, fiscal position, GHG emission, and transition to renewable energy sources. © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2014.
COVID-19, an opportunity for developing countries?
2020
The COVID-19 outbreak was declared by the World Health Organization (WHO) as global pandemic in March 2020. Considering the necessity to implement rapid response to control the pandemic and the fragility and the state of need of low income countries, it will be mandatory to develop a global approach in order to reduce the spread of infection and the creation of community viral reservoirs. So far, we could hypothesize a worst case scenario in which when the COVID-19 outbreak hits a peak in Africa and in low-income countries, the majority of such countries will be unprepared, with low resources allocated for affording the viral emergency and the consequences will be catastrophic with no lesso…