Effetto di facilitazione delle frequenze naturali nel ragionamento probabilistico

Facilitating Effect of Natural Frequencies: Size Does Not Matter

The question of whether humans are able to work in a Bayesian way is currently a topic of substantial investigation. An important finding, reported by Gigerenzer and Hoffrage in 1995 is that Bayesian reasoning is facilitated when the information format corresponds to natural frequencies. The present concern was whether the facilitating effect of frequencies persists when natural frequencies relate to samples which are not convenient multiples of 10. 150 undergraduates participated as volunteers (42 men, 108 women; M age = 23 yr.). Analysis showed the effect of natural frequency formats was not dependent on size of reference class. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed.

Software che aiutano a decidere

Il carico cognitivo della decisione d’acquisto

Gli studi classici sul decision making si sono prevalentemente concentrati sugli effetti positivi derivanti dalla possibilita di scegliere. Un assunto comunemente accettato e, infatti, quello secondo cui la liberta di scelta incrementa la motivazione intrinseca e il senso di controllo personale, i quali a loro volta potenziano la performance e il livello di life satisfaction. Solo da pochi anni la letteratura ha iniziato a considerare le conseguenze negative della scelta. In particolare, sembra che la difficolta della decisione aumenti in funzione del carico cognitivo che essa implica. Quest’ultimo e determinato dal numero delle opzioni fra cui si puo scegliere, dal numero degli attributi c…

A study of temporal estimation from the perspective of the Mental Clock Model.

M. Cardaci's (2000) Mental Clock Model maintains that a task requiring a low mental workload is associated with an acceleration of perceived time, whereas a task requiring a high mental workload is associated with a deceleration. The authors examined the predictions of this model in a musical listening condition in which musical pieces were audible in several structural complexities. To measure the effects of musical complexity on time estimation, the authors used retrospective and prospective time-estimation paradigms. For the retrospective paradigm, the authors invited participants to listen to a musical piece and then estimate its duration. For the prospective paradigm, the authors invit…

The problem of having too many choices

Esplorazione cognitiva di un programma di e-learning

I PARADOSSI, LE SFIDE E I SUPPORTI NEI PROCESSI DECISIONALI

Individual differences in adaptive choice strategies

Abstract Individual differences in compensatory and non-compensatory choice processes remain an unresolved issue for decision process researchers. This study investigates the stability and nature of individual differences in choice processes when individuals adapt to changes in the structure of the choice environment, namely the correlation among the choice attributes. By means of process tracing techniques, between-subjects differences in choice processing (option-based or attribute based) were found to be stable across different tasks. Individuals with higher openness to experience and ability to solve reasoning tasks were found to be more adaptive, that is to switch more promptly their c…

Frequency format facilitates reasoning in simple numerical tasks.

This study examined whether it is easier to reason in terms of frequencies or with percentages for simple numerical tasks. Research on probabilistic reasoning has shown that humans can draw correct inferences when problems are presented in terms of natural frequencies but not when in percentages. Whether the same effect can be observed in other numerically simple tasks which are not probabilistic was studied with 40 undergraduate students who volunteered for the experiment (13 men, 27 women; M age of 23 yr.). In a simple numerical task involving frequencies or percentages ( N = 20), their performance showed representation in frequencies facilitates the task.

Maximizers’ Susceptibility to the Effect of Frequency vs. Percentage Format in Risk Representation

The present study explored the susceptibility of maximizers to the effect of the specific information format—frequency vs. percentage—in a risk assessment task. One-hundred and fourteen participants were randomized into two experimental conditions: a frequency format and a percentage format. In both conditions, participants had to rate the level of risk that a mental patient would harm someone after his discharge from a mental health facility, based on the information reported in the psychologist’s assessment for that patient. In the frequency condition, the information was presented in terms of frequencies, whereas in the percentage condition the same information was pres…

Il processo decisionale online: rassegna di studi empirici e confronto tra Siti Internet per l'Aiuto alle Decisioni negli Stati Uniti e in Europa

With the advent of the Internet, decision making researchers have extended their research scope from traditional "offline" contexts to the increasingly more common "online" decision environment. At the same time, on the Web an increasing number of "decision-facilitating websites" have appeared - spaces finalized to help users make "online" decisions. In the present work we a) present and discuss the most important decision facilitating websites; b) review the main results obtained by the fledgling field of Web-based decision research.

Rethinking of the Heuristic-Analytic Dual Process Theory: A Comment on Wada and Nittono (2004) and the Reasoning Process in the Wason Selection Task

This paper raises some methodological problems in the dual process explanation provided by Wada and Nittono for their 2004 results using the Wason selection task. We maintain that the Nittono rethinking approach is weak and that it should be refined to grasp better the evidence of analytic processes.

Maximizers perceive time differently than satisficers

Development of conditional reasoning and Wason's selection task

Influent theories on human reasoning have suggested that Wason's selection task is so difficult because it involves heuristic and implicit processes. However, recent studies have demonstrated the implication of deductive activities. Poor performance on this task would thus result from some of its characteristics that impede the use of deductive processes. In the present experiment, we hypothesised that a modified abstract selection task that induces analytic and deductive processes should lead to better performance than the standard version of the task. Moreover, deductive activities are strongly affected by development (Markovits et Barrouillet, 2002). Thus, we predicted a strong developme…

Who are maximizers? Future oriented and highly numerate individuals

Two studies investigated cognitive mechanisms that may be associated with people's tendency to maximize. Maximizers are individuals who are spending a great amount of effort in order to find the very best option in a decision situation, rather than stopping the decision process when they encounter a satisfying option. These studies show that maximizers are more future oriented than other people, which may motivate them to invest the extra energy into optimal choices. Maximizers also have higher numerical skills, possibly facilitating the cognitive processes involved with decision trade-offs.

Conclusione. I paradossi, le sfide e i supporti decisionali

Three Effective Ways to Nurture Our Brain

Abstract. A growing body of research suggests that physical activity, healthy eating, and music can, either directly or indirectly, have positive effects on our brain and cognition. More specifically, exercising and eating seem to enhance cognitive abilities, such as memory, creativity, and perception. They also improve academic performance and play a protective role from many degenerative diseases, including Alzheimer’s disease. Concerning music, research has shown that there exists a general positive relation between music aptitude and cognitive functioning. Furthermore, the presence of music seems to create a positive mood and a higher arousal, which translates into better performance i…

Animation attracts: The attraction effect in an on-line shopping environment

Two studies examine the attraction effect - an inconsistent choice behavior typically observed when consumers are presented with two products (target and competitor), both good for different reasons, and a worse "decoy" - in the context of on-line consumer decisions with different product displays (animated or static). The experiments, with different participant populations, show that the attraction effect in an on-line shopping environment depends on the animation format of the products. Experiment 1 (with Italian participants) suggests that the attraction effect is eliminated when target and competitor are both animated and is accentuated when the target is animated and the competitor is …

Reactancia psicológica como explicación de la resistencia de los italianos a observar las medidas de seguridad durante el brote de COVID-19

Are maximizers more normative decision-makers? An experimental investigation of maximizers' susceptibility to cognitive biases

Abstract The present study tested the hypothesis that maximizers – people who routinely seek to make optimal decisions rather than quickly settling for an acceptable one – are less susceptible to cognitive biases. Experiment 1 showed that high maximizers are less swayed by irrelevant differences in the framing of a decision-making scenario than are low maximizers. Experiment 2 confirmed that maximizers are also less likely to neglect important base rate information when making decisions. Experiment 3 showed that maximizers are less likely to stick with a bad plan in which they have already invested (the sunk-cost bias) and therefore are quicker to switch to a more attractive alternative pla…

Relazioni di dominanza nel paradosso di 'troppa scelta'

Do too many choices have negative consequences? An empirical review

Various experiments demonstrated that having too much choice has negative consequences on the motivation to choose and on the satisfaction with the chosen option. However, the literature reports conflicting results showing that choosing from large assortments has advantages. This paper reviews the main empirical results in favor and against the negative effect of too much choice and identifies possible directions for further research. Copyright © 2013 by Società editrice il Mulino.

Time flies when you maximize - Maximizers and satisficers perceive time differently when making decisions

Three experiments assessed whether maximizing and satisficing decision-making types were associated with differences in perception of time, as a consequence of their different cognitive workloads. Findings showed that maximizers and satisficers perceived time differently during decision-making, but not during other tasks. In particular, compared to satisficers, maximizers tended to underestimate time while choosing, independently of the number of options and the specific task requirements. Satisficers instead tended to underestimate time only when the number of options or the task requirements were more challenging. Our findings suggest that the perception of time may serve as a measure of …

Da 'acromatizzare' a 'zonizzare': vantaggi della riflessione sulla segmentazione morfologica

Usability and Trust in E-Banking

This study assessed the role of usability in trust of e-banking services. A questionnaire was administered to 185 Italian undergraduate working students who volunteered for the experiment (M age = 30.5 yr., SD = 3.1). Participants were differentiated on computer ability (Expert, n=104; Nonexpert, n = 81) and e-banking use (User, n = 93; Nonusers, n = 92). Analysis showed that the website usability of e-banking services did not play a very important role for the User group. Instead, institution-based trust, e.g., the trust in the security policy of the Web merchant, customers, and the overall trust of the bank were the crucial factors in the adoption of e-banking. © Psychological Reports 200…

Prosocial priming and bystander effect in an online context.

The present study tested the effect of priming the concept of prosociality on the bystander effect in an online environment. Participants were sent an e-mail requesting a plea for help and randomly assigned to one of four conditions in a 2 (Bystander: 0 vs. 14) × 2 (Priming: present vs. absent) design. The results demonstrated support for the study hypothesis. As expected, the virtual presence of many others significantly reduced e-mail responsiveness except when the request for help is preceded by prosocial priming. Implications of these findings for the literature on the bystander effect and priming are discussed.

The effect of choice complexity on perception of time spent choosing: When choice takes longer but feels shorter

Two studies examine the effect of the complexity of the choice environment on the perceived duration of the time spent choosing. The experiments demonstrate that the estimation of the time spent making a decision is affected by the number of options available in the choice set. In Experiment 1, participants having to choose 1 of 24 mobile phones tended to underestimate the time spent whereas participants confronted with the choice of 6 mobile phones tended to overestimate the actual time spent. Experiment 2 corroborates this finding, in the presence of varying degrees of attribute correlation. We conclude with theoretical and practical implications for marketers. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, I…

Il bias di ragionamento probabilistico nel birthday-problem. Un contributo di ricerca

PROBLEMI DOVUTI ALL’AMBIENTE DECISIONALE

Maximizing versus satisficing in the digital age: Disjoint scales and the case for “construct consensus”

Abstract A question facing us today, in the new and rapidly evolving digital age, is whether searching for the best option – being a maximizer – leads to greater happiness and better outcomes than settling on the first good enough option found – or “satisficing.” Answers to this question inform behavioural insights to improve well-being and decision-making in policy and organizational settings. Yet, the answers to this fundamental question of measurement of the happiness of a maximizer versus a satisficer in the current psychological literature are: 1) conflicting; 2) anchored on the use of the first scale published to measure maximization as an individual-difference, and 3) unable to descr…

IL PROBLEMA DELLA ‘TROPPA SCELTA’

The Role of the Brand on Choice Overload

Current research on choice overload has been mainly conducted with choice options not associated with specific brands. This study investigates whether the presence of brand names in the choice set affects the occurrence of choice overload. Across four studies, we find that when choosing among an overabundance of alternatives, participants express more positive feelings (i.e., higher satisfaction/confidence, lower regret and difficulty) when all the options of the choice set are associated with familiar brands, rather than unfamiliar brands or no brand at all. We also find that choice overload only appears in the absence of brand names, but disappears when all options contain brand names—eit…

Can We Do Better Next Time? Italians' Response to the COVID-19 Emergency through a Heuristics and Biases Lens.

During the outbreak of COVID-19 in Italy, people often failed to adopt behaviors that could have stopped, or at least slowed down, the spread of this deadly disease. We offer cognitive explanations for these decisions, based on some of the most common heuristics and biases that are known to influence human judgment and decision-making, especially under conditions of high uncertainty. Our analysis concludes with the following recommendations: policymakers can and should take advantage of this established science, in order to communicate more effectively and increase the likelihood that people choose responsible actions in a public health crisis.

Il Consumo Elettronico

Emozioni e decisioni

Perceptual commensuration in decision tables

This paper calls attention to design features that could enhance the helpfulness of the decision table to decision makers trying to get a better intuitive grasp of the choices facing them. The experiments reported here show that the grey scale is more facilitative than the number scale for problem comprehension as measured by the identification of dominance and the identification of non-additivity, each of which requires a view of the decision problem that is sensitive to patterns across attributes. Additional design features that could enhance the decision makers’ grasp of the choices facing them are suggested for further research.

L’EFFETTO DEL SOVRACCARICO DI SCELTA. UN’INDAGINE SU BAMBINI, ADOLESCENTI, ADULTI, E ANZIANI

L’effetto del sovraccarico di scelta è stato finora studiato solo su adulti. Il presente lavoro si propone di indagare se le conseguenze negative dell’avere troppa scelta si estendono anche a bambini, adolescenti, e anziani. I dati suggeriscono che mentre gli adolescenti sono influenzati dal fenomeno in modo simile agli adulti, i bambini e gli anziani sembrano invece esserne immuni. Sono discusse le implicazioni teoriche e pratiche dei risultati e vengono forniti spunti per ulteriori ricerche

Le decisioni nei consumi

Is more choice always worse? Age differences in the overchoice effect

ABSTRACTCurrent research on the overchoice effect has been mainly conducted from an adult point of view and with adult subjects. This study investigates whether children, adolescents, and seniors suffer the same negative consequences as adults when facing an overabundance of choice. Findings showed that the overchoice effect did not equally extend to all age groups. While adolescents were affected by the phenomenon in a very similar way as adults, children and seniors suffered fewer negative consequences of an overabundance of choice. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed.

The Role of Guilt and Empathy on Prosocial Behavior.

Research on the effects of guilt on interpersonal relationships has shown that guilt frequently motivates prosocial behavior in dyadic social situations. When multiple persons are involved, however, this emotion can be disadvantageous for other people in the social environment. Two experiments were carried out to examine the effect of guilt and empathy on prosocial behavior in a context in which more than two people are involved. Experiment 1 investigates whether, in three-person situations, guilt motivates prosocial behavior with beneficial effects for the victim of one’s actions but disadvantageous effects for the third individual. Participants were faced with a social dilemma in wh…

The Decision Making Tendency Inventory: A new measure to assess maximizing, satisficing, and minimizing

Abstract We introduce the Decision Making Tendency Inventory (DMTI), a new scale for measuring the decision-making tendencies to maximize, to satisfice, and to minimize. The scale has promising psychometric properties. Our findings show that the revealed tendencies are independent from each other and from the specific decision-making domain. Each factor is differently related to a set of indices of well-being and functioning, suggesting intriguing considerations regarding the distinctive characteristics of maximizing, satisficing, and minimizing. The DMTI extends previous research on maximizing and might contribute to explain the inconsistent results in the literature. Directions for future…

The attraction effect in an online shopping environment