On the severity of economic downturns: Lessons from cross-country evidence

Abstract We measure the severity of recessions as a function of their amplitude and duration. Within a quantile regression framework, we assess what causes economic downturns to be more or less severe. We find that the most severe downturns have striking similarities regarding cumulated domestic credit and large current account deficits.

A Novel Expert System for Non-Invasive Liver Iron Overload Estimation in Thalassemic Patients

Expert Systems can integrate logic based often on computational intelligence methods and they are used in complex problem solving. In this work an Expert System for classifying liver iron concentration in thalassemic patients is presented. In this work, an ANN is used to validate the output of the L.I.O.MO.T (Liver Iron Overload Monitoring in Thalassemia) method against the output of the state-of-the-art method based on MRI T2 assessment for liver iron concentration. The model has been validated with a dataset of 200 samples. The experimental Mean Squared Error results and Correlation show interesting performances. The proposed algorithm has been developed as a plug in for OsiriX Dicom View…

Systemic financial crises and the housing market cycle

Using quarterly data for a group of 20 industrialized countries and both continuous- and discrete-time duration models, we show that financial crisis recessions are associated with a two- to three-fold increase in the likelihood of the end of a housing boom. Additionally, recessions preceded by booms in mortgage credit are especially damaging, as their occurrence coincides with an increase in the duration of housing market slumps of almost 90%.

What determines the likelihood of structural reforms?

We use data for a panel of 60 countries over the period 1980–2005 to investigate the main drivers of the likelihood of structural reforms. We find that: (i) external debt crises are the main trigger of financial and banking reforms; (ii) inflation and banking crises are the key drivers of external capital account reforms; (iii) banking crises also hasten financial reforms; and (iv) economic recessions play an important role in promoting the necessary consensus for financial, capital, banking and trade reforms, especially in the group of OECD-countries. Additionally, we also observe that the degree of globalisation is relevant for financial reforms, in particular in the group of non-OECD cou…

Booms and busts in housing markets

FINANCIAL MARKETS' SHUTDOWN AND REACCESS

We employ a discrete-time parametric duration model on a group of 121 countries over the period 1970–2011 and find that the probability of the end of financial markets' shutdown and reaccess falls as these events become longer. We also show that: (1) shutdown episodes are longer when economic prospects are poor and the degree of financial openness falls, the chief executive has been in office for long periods, and the country has a default history and (2) spells of reaccess tend to be longer when economic growth improves and financial openness increases, there are neither government crises nor government instability, and the country did not default in the past. (JEL C41, G15)

A competing risks tale on successful and unsuccessful fiscal consolidations

Abstract This paper analyses the transitions out of fiscal consolidations using annual data for 17 industrial countries over the period 1975-2013 and applying a discrete-time competing risks duration model. Our approach allows us to distinguish the factors behind a successful or an unsuccessful end of fiscal consolidation episodes. The results show that economic and political factors, the size and typology of fiscal adjustments and the occurrence of crises explain the differences in the length and the success/failure of fiscal consolidations. Moreover, while fiscal adjustment programmes that end successfully display positive duration dependence, those that end in an unsuccessful manner are …

Unsupervised tissue classification of brain MR images for voxel-based morphometry analysis

In this article, a fully unsupervised method for brain tissue segmentation of T1-weighted MRI 3D volumes is proposed. The method uses the Fuzzy C-Means (FCM) clustering algorithm and a Fully Connected Cascade Neural Network (FCCNN) classifier. Traditional manual segmentation methods require neuro-radiological expertise and significant time while semiautomatic methods depend on parameter's setup and trial-and-error methodologies that may lead to high intraoperator/interoperator variability. The proposed method selects the most useful MRI data according to FCM fuzziness values and trains the FCCNN to learn to classify brain’ tissues into White Matter, Gray Matter, and Cerebro-Spinal Fluid in …

FINANCIAL MARKETS' SHUTDOWN AND REACCESS

We employ a discrete-time parametric duration model on a group of 121 countries over the period 1970–2011 and find that the probability of the end of financial markets' shutdown and reaccess falls as these events become longer. We also show that: (1) shutdown episodes are longer when economic prospects are poor and the degree of financial openness falls, the chief executive has been in office for long periods, and the country has a default history and (2) spells of reaccess tend to be longer when economic growth improves and financial openness increases, there are neither government crises nor government instability, and the country did not default in the past. (JEL C41, G15).

Procyclicality and loan pricing effects under Basel 2: a simulation exercise to assess the impact on Italian SMEs

Fiscal adjustments and income inequality: a first assessment

Using a statistical approach to identify fiscal adjustments, we find that fiscal consolidation appears to shorten the income gap. Fiscal austerity plans that succeed in bringing public debt to a sustainable path seem to be more likely to reduce inequality. Expansionary fiscal adjustments are particularly important to promote changes in the income distribution.

Fiscal Policy Discretion, Private Spending, and Crisis Episodes

In this paper, we assess the impact of fiscal policy discretion on economic activity in the short and medium-term. Using a panel of 132 countries from 1960 to 2008, we find that fiscal policy discretion provides a net stimulus to the economy in the short-run and crowding-in effects are amplified once crisis episodes are controlled for– in particular, banking crises - giving a great scope for fiscal policy stimulus packages. However, crowding-out effects take over in the long-run – especially, in the case of debt crises -, in line with the concerns about long-term debt sustainability.

Assessing Long-Term Fiscal Developments: A New Approach

We use a new approach to assess long-term fiscal developments. By analyzing the time-varying behaviour of the two components of government spending and revenue - responsiveness and persistence - we are able to infer about the sources of fiscal behaviour. Drawing on quarterly data we estimate recursively these components within a system of government revenue and spending equations using a Three-Stage Least Square method. In this way we track fiscal developments, i.e. possible fiscal deteriorations and/or improvements for eight European Union countries plus the US. Results suggest that positions have not significantly changed for Finland, France, Germany, Spain, the United Kingdom and the US,…

On the duration of sovereign ratings cycle phases

Abstract Using long-term sovereign ratings data for a panel of 130 countries over the last three decades, we investigate the duration and determinants of sovereign rating phases through the lens of discrete-time Weibull models. We find that the likelihood of the end of the ‘speculative-grade’ phase increases as time goes by (i.e. there is positive duration dependence), but the ‘investment-grade’ phase is not duration dependent. Thus, for sovereigns rated as speculative, the build-up of reputation as good borrowers is a gradual process, whereas the reputation of investment-grade sovereigns solidifies and remains unchanged as time passes. However, the length of both phases significantly depen…

HOW DO FISCAL CONSOLIDATION AND FISCAL STIMULI IMPACT ON THE SYNCHRONIZATION OF BUSINESS CYCLES?

Using quarterly data for a panel of advanced economies, we show that synchronized fiscal consolidation (stimulus) programmes in different countries make their business cycles more closely linked. We also find: (i) some evidence of decoupling when an inflation targeting regime is unilaterally adopted; (ii) an increase in business cycle synchronization when countries fix their exchange rates and become members of a monetary union; (iii) a positive effect of bilateral trade on the synchronization of business cycles. Global factors, such as a rise in global risk aversion and uncertainty and a reversal of nonstandard expansionary monetary policy, can also reduce the degree of co-movement of busi…

Booms and busts in housing markets: determinants and implications

This study looks at real estate price booms and busts in industrialised countries. It identifies major and persistent deviations from long term trends for 18 countries and estimates the probabilities of their occurrence using a Random Effects Panel Probit model over the period 1980-2007. It finds that 1) most recent housing booms have been very persistent and of a significant magnitude; 2) there appears to be a strong correlation between the persistence and magnitude of booms and subsequent busts; 3) economic costs (in terms of GDP losses during the post-boom phase) depend significantly on the magnitude and duration of the boom and money and credit developments during that period; 4) a numb…

Booms and busts in housing markets: determinants and implications

This study looks at real estate price booms and busts in industrialised countries. It identifies major and persistent deviations from long term trends for 18 countries and estimates the probabilities of their occurrence using a Random Effects Panel Probit model over the period 1980-2007. It finds that 1) most recent housing booms have been very persistent and of a significant magnitude; 2) there appears to be a strong correlation between the persistence and magnitude of booms and subsequent busts; 3) economic costs (in terms of GDP losses during the post-boom phase) depend significantly on the magnitude and duration of the boom and money and credit developments during that period; 4) a numb…

Fingerprint and Iris based Authentication in Intercooperative Emerging e-Infrastructures

E-infrastructures must support the development of heterogeneous applications for workstation network, for mobile and portable systems and devices. In this context and relating to all collaborative and pervasive computational technology a very important role is played by security and authentication systems, which represent the first step of the whole process. Biometric authentication systems represent a valid alternative to conventional authentication systems providing robust procedures for user authentication. On the other hand, Internet of Things involves a heterogeneous set of interacting devices to enable innovative global and local applications and services for users. In this chapter fi…

Financial Reforms and Income Inequality

Available online 8 June 2012

An ontology-based retrieval system for mammographic reports

In healthcare domain it can be useful to compare unstructured free-text clinical reports in order to enable the search for similar and/or relevant clinical cases. In data mining and text analysis tasks, the cosine similarity is usually used for texts comparison purposes. It is usually performed by computing the standard document vector cosine similarity between the two vectors representing the report pair under analysis. In this paper a novel system based on text pre-processing techniques and a modelled medical knowledge, using an improved radiological ontology, is proposed. Medical terms organized in a hierarchical tree can assess semantic similarity relationships between unstructured repo…

How does fiscal policy react to wealth composition and asset prices?

Prova tipográfica

The Impact of Fiscal Consolidation on Human Development

We find that fiscal austerity is associated with a reduction of human development standards, with the negative effect being particularly severe in the case of spending-driven consolidation episodes. Fiscal adjustments are especially damaging for human development in developing countries (namely, African and Latin American countries). Additionally, the empirical evidence shows that (i) government stability is a crucial institutional determinant of human development, and (ii) while investment in physical capital can boost human development, government consumption and inflation are detrimental to it.

The Determinants of the Volatility of Fiscal Policy Discretion

We investigate the determinants of the volatility of fiscal policy discretion. Using a linear dynamic panel dataset model for 104 countries from 1980 to 2006 and a system-GMM estimator,we find that more government instability, less democracy and presidentialist systems increase the volatility of the discretionary component of fiscal policy. Additionally, we show that countries with a larger size, a smaller degree of financial openness, and a stable exchange rate system are more insured against the uncertainty about the conduct of fiscal policy. Our results are robust to various regional dummy variables, diferent sub-sets of countries and the presence of high inflation and crisis episodes.

Political, Institutional, and Economic Factors Underlying Deficit Volatility

It is well known that fiscal policy can counter-cyclically smooth out the effect of unexpected shocks and public deficit volatility may reflect the (optimal) policy response to them. However, the welfare losses associated to fiscal instability are also an important challenge for many countries, as it typically implies an inefficient allocation of resources, higher sovereign risk premium and an inadequate provision of public services. In this paper, we empirically analyze the political, institutional, and economic sources of public deficit volatility. Using the system-generalized method-of-moments (GMM) estimator for linear dynamic panel data models and a sample of 125 countries analyzed fro…

Fiscal Policy and Asset Price Cycles: Evidence from Four European Countries

OS; International audience; We test for non-linear effects of asset prices on the fiscal policy of four major European economies (France, Italy, Spain and UK). We model government spending and revenue as time-varying transition probability Markovian processes (TVPMS), and find that: (i) in France and Italy, the impact of housing prices on government revenue is conditioned by the phase of the stock price cycle; (ii) a similar asymmetric pattern is found for the UK when considering the effect of stock price fluctuations on government revenue and spending vis-à-vis the troughs and peaks of aggregate wealth; and (iii) for Spain, a fall in government revenue is typically associated with a negati…

Do debt crises boost financial reforms?

"Published online: 15 Aug. 2014"

Financial stress and sovereign debt composition

"Published online: 19 Oct 2015"

The determinants of public deficit volatility

This paper empirically analyzes the political, institutional and economic sources of public deficit volatility. Using the system-GMM estimator for linear dynamic panel data models and a sample of 125 countries analyzed from 1980 to 2006, we show that higher public deficit volatility is typically associated with higher levels of political instability and less democracy. In addition, public deficit volatility tends to be magnified for small countries, in the outcome of hyper-inflation episodes and for countries with a high degree of openness.

Using time-varying transition probabilities in Markov switching processes to adjust US fiscal policy for asset prices

This paper tests for nonlinear effects of asset prices on the US fiscal policy. By modeling government spending and taxes as time-varying transition probability Markovian processes (TVPMS), we find that taxes significantly adjust in a nonlinear fashion to asset prices. In particular, taxes respond to housing and (to a smaller extent) to stock price changes during normal times. However, at periods characterized by high financial volatility, government taxation only counteracts stock market developments (and not the dynamics of the housing sector). As for government spending, it is neutral vis-a-vis the asset market cycles. We conclude that, correcting the fiscal balance and, notably, the rev…

How do Banking Crises Impact on Income Inequality?

We show that banking crises have an important effect on income distribution: inequality increases before banking crisis episodes and sharply declines afterwards. We also find that, while a large government size does not per se seem to reduce inequality, a rise in financial depth (i.e. better access to credit provided by the banking sector) contributes to a more equal distribution of income.

A quest between fiscal and market discipline

Fiscal rules are typically seen as government constraints. Yet, the extent to which they are substituted or complemented by market discipline (especially, during financial stress) remains unexplored. Using data for 71 countries over the period 1985–2015, we estimate an “augmented” fiscal reaction function to assess the impact of both fiscal and market discipline. We find that different market signals influence fiscal policy, but fiscal discipline depends on market incentives. In the EU and the OECD, market signals complement fiscal rules. These are less effective in the EMU and non-OECD countries that are “debt intolerant”. Yet, there are unintended consequences: (i) neither output and debt…

Discretionary fiscal policy over the cycle: new evidence based on the ESCB Disaggregated Approach

This paper explores how discretionary fiscal policies on the revenue side of the government budget have reacted to economic fluctuations in European Union countries. For this purpose, it uses data on legislated revenue changes and structural indicators provided twice per year by National Central Banks of European Union countries in the ESCB framework for analysing fiscal policy. The analysis is based on the estimation of fiscal policy rules linking these measures of legislated fiscal policy changes to the output gap and other control variables. Then, baseline results are compared with regression estimates where variations of cyclically-adjusted indicators are used as proxy for discretionary…

Fiscal Adjustments and Business Cycle Synchronization

Using a panel of annual data for 20 countries we show that synchronized fiscal consolidation (stimulus) programmes in different countries make their business cycles more closely linked, especially in the case of fiscal adjustments lasting 2 or 3 years. We also find: (i) little evidence of decoupling when an inflation targeting regime is unilaterally adopted; (ii) an increase in business cycle synchronization when countries fix their exchange rates and become members of a monetary union; (iii) a positive effect of bilateral trade on the synchronization of business cycles

Studio quantitativo della densità ossea dell’ottava vertebra toracica in pazienti sottoposti a TC del cuore

The location of vertebral fractures due to osteoporosis is more frequent in the middle thoracic tract (T8) and in the thoraco-lumbar junction (T12-L1): the T8 vertebra is included in the CT scan volume of the heart. The purpose of the study is to evaluate the density T8 bone in relation to cardiovascular risk factors and the severity of the pathology found in the CT of the heart.

Fiscal Adjustment and Business Cycle Synchronization

Using a panel of annual data for 20 countries we show that synchronized fiscal consolidation (stimulus) programmes in different countries make their business cycles more closely linked, especially in the case of fiscal adjustments lasting 2 or 3 years. We also find: (i) little evidence of decoupling when an inflation targeting regime is unilaterally adopted; (ii) an increase in business cycle synchronization when countries fix their exchange rates and become members of a monetary union; (iii) a positive effect of bilateral trade on the synchronization of business cycles.

Inflation scares and bond market signals: is the Fed's policy action asymmetric?

What determines the duration of a fiscal consolidation program?

This paper assesses the determinants of the length of fiscal consolidation using annual data for 17 industrial countries over the period 1978-2009. Relying on a narrative approach to identify fiscal consolidation episodes, we show that fiscal variables (such as the budget deficit and the level of public debt) and economic factors (such as the degree of openness, the inflation rate, the interest rate and per capita GDP) are crucial for the fiscal consolidation process. Additionally, we employ duration analysis over a set of consolidation spells and find that, as time goes by, the likelihood of a fiscal consolidation ending is higher. However, the hazard function is not monotonic: indeed, it …

Booms, Busts and normal times in the housing market

We assess the existence of duration dependence in the likelihood of an end in housing booms, busts, and normal times. Using data for 20 industrial countries and a continuous-time Weibull duration model, we find evidence of positive duration dependence suggesting that housing market cycles have become longer over the last decades. Then, we extend the baseline Weibull model and allow for the presence of a change-point in the duration dependence parameter.We show that positive duration dependence is present in booms and busts that last less than 26 quarters, but that does not seem to be the case for longer phases of the housing market cycle. For normal times, no evidence of change-points is fo…

Creazione di un plug-in per il software open-source di visualizzazione di immagini DICOM OsiriX per lo studio delle variazioni dimensionali e densitometriche di metastasi epatiche in TCMS

Presentiamo la nostra esperienza riguardo la progettazione e l'utilizzo di un plug-in per il software open-source di visualizzazione di immagini DICOM (OsiriX 32-bit; GNU General Public License) per la valutazione dei criteri dimensionali e densitometrici di metastasi epatiche in TCMS.

Income inequality, fiscal stimuli and political (in)stability

Using data for a large panel of countries, this paper investigates the role played by income inequality and fiscal stimuli episodes in shaping the likelihood of political stability. By means of Tobit estimations, we show that a rise in inequality increases the probability of government crises. However, such adverse distributional effect is reduced when expansionary or increasingly expansionary fiscal stimuli episodes or successful fiscal stimuli programs are put in place.

An Osirix based plug-in for the study of dimensional and densitometric changes of hepatic metastases on CT images

Aims and objectives Methods and materials Results Conclusion Personal information References

The Legacy and the Tyranny of Time: Exit and Re-Entry of Sovereigns to International Capital Markets

We use a novel continuous-time Weibull model (without and) with a change-point in the duration dependence parameter to investigate the duration of the exit and re-entry of sovereigns to international capital markets. Relying on annual data for a large panel of countries over the period 1970-2011, we find that, as the reputation of debtor countries as good (bad) borrowers solidifies over time, those episodes are more likely to end - i.e. the "legacy of time". Debtor countries can take advantage of the "benefit of doubt" of creditors during short exit spells. However, when exits are long and the reputation as a bad borrower emerges, no more "complacency" makes it more difficult for them to bo…

The Benevolence of Time, Sound Macroeconomic Environment and Governance Quality on the Duration of Sovereign Ratings Phases

Using long-term sovereign ratings data for a panel of 130 countries over the last three decades, we rely on discrete-time Weibull models to investigate the duration and determinants of sovereign ratings phases. We find that the likelihood of the end of the 'speculative-grade' phase increases as time goes by (i.e. positive duration dependence), but the 'investment-grade' phase is not duration dependent. Thus, for sovereigns rated as speculative, the build-up of reputation as good borrowers is a gradual process, whereas the reputation of investment-grade sovereigns solidifies and remains unchanged as time passes. However, the length of both phases has proven to be significantly dependent on t…

How best to measure discretionary fiscal policy? Assessing its impact on private spending

We develop a novel empirical approach to assess the effect of discretionary fiscal policy on private spending consisting of three stages: 1) extract the discretionary component of fiscal policy by estimating a fiscal policy rule; 2) use the residuals of the first-stage regression to investigate the existence of crowding-in and/or crowding-out effects both in the short and the medium term; and 3) condition the response of private spending on a set of country characteristics. We find that an expansion in discretionary fiscal policy boosts growth in the short term, but is detrimental in the medium term. In addition, the empirical findings suggest that the effect of discretionary fiscal policy …

Fiscal adjustments, labour market flexibility and unemployment

Using a panel of 17 countries for 1978-2009, we find that tax-driven consolidations increase unemployment by 0.25 percentage points. Labour market flexibility mitigates this: a one-point rise in the flexibility index reduces youth (long-term) unemployment by 0.6-0.7 (1.8-2.2) percentage points.

Nonlinear effects of asset prices on fiscal policy: Evidence from the UK, Italy and Spain

"Available online 1 August 2014"

Political, Institutional, and Economic Factors Underlying Deficit Volatility

It is well known that fiscal policy can counter-cyclically smooth out the effect of unexpected shocks and public deficit volatility may reflect the (optimal) policy response to them. However, the welfare losses associated to fiscal instability are also an important challenge for many countries, as it typically implies an inefficient allocation of resources, higher sovereign risk premium and an inadequate provision of public services. In this paper, we empirically analyze the political, institutional, and economic sources of public deficit volatility. Using the system-generalized method-of-moments (GMM) estimator for linear dynamic panel data models and a sample of 125 countries analyzed fro…

Assessing long-term fiscal developments : a new approach

We use a new approach to assess long-term fiscal developments. By analyzing the time-varying behaviour of the two components of government spending and revenue – responsiveness and persistence–, a feature not captured by automatic stabilisers, we are able to infer about the sources of fiscal deterioration (improvement). Drawing on quarterly data, we estimate recursively these components within a system of government revenue and spending equations using a Three-Stage Least Square method for eight European Union countries plus the US. The results suggest that significant changes in the fiscal stance (including those related to the current crisis) are reflected in the estimates of persistence …

The Housing Cycle: What Role for Mortgage Market Development and Housing Finance?

AbstractWe use duration analysis to assess the impact of securitization, mortgage sector liberalization and government involvement in housing finance on the length of housing booms, busts and normal times in a panel of 20 OECD countries over the period 1970Q1-2015Q4. Our results reveal that a move towards a more liberalized mortgage sector is associated with longer housing booms, while an increase in securitization is linked with shorter housing busts. They also show that the length of housing booms and busts is particularly sensitive to housing finance characteristics, but that does not seem to be the case for normal times. Additionally, government support measures do not necessarily cushi…

Unconventional monetary policy reaction functions: evidence from the US

Abstract We specify unconventional monetary policy reaction functions for the Fed using linear and nonlinear econometric frameworks. We find that nonstandard policy measures are largely driven by the dynamics of inflation and the output gap, with the effect being particularly strong during QE rounds. Moreover, we uncover the presence of asymmetry and regime dependence in central bank’s actions since the global financial crisis, especially concerning the response of the term spread and the shadow short rate to the growth rate of central bank reserves. From a policy perspective and given the lack of a systematic response of monetary policy to asset price growth in nonstandard times, our findi…

The Impact of Fiscal Consolidation on Human Development

We find that fiscal austerity is associated with a reduction of human development standards, with the negative effect being particularly severe in the case of spending-driven consolidation episodes. Fiscal adjustments are especially damaging for human development in developing countries (namely, African and Latin American countries). Additionally, the empirical evidence shows that (i) government stability is a crucial institutional determinant of human development, and (ii) while investment in physical capital can boost human development, government consumption and inflation are detrimental to it. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Spillovers from the oil sector to the housing market cycle

We assess the spillovers from the oil sector to the housing market cycle using quarterly data for 20 net oil-exporting and -importing industrial countries, and employing continuous- and discrete-time duration models. We do not uncover a statistically significant difference in the average duration of booms and normal times in the housing markets of those net oil-importers and net oil-exporters. Similarly, the degree of exposure to commodity price fluctuations does not seem to significantly affect the housing market cycle. However, we find that housing booms are shorter when oil prices increase than housing busts when oil prices decrease. We also show that the net oil-importers are more vulne…

On the international co-movement of natural interest rates

Using quarterly data for 10 OECD countries and the Euro area and a Kalman filtering technique, we investigate the international co-movement among natural interest rates. We show that the US is the main source of global spillovers and global/common factors appear to be key drivers of such co-movement. Indeed, global liquidity is a net transmitter of shocks, while quantitative easing (QE) and the US Dollar are net recipients of shocks. We also find that total spillovers among natural interest rates have been rising since the late nineties, spiking at around economic re-cessions, periods of US monetary policy tightening, the global financial crisis and the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis. From …

Discretionary Government Consumption, Private Domestic Demand, and Crisis Episodes

This paper analyzes the dynamic impact of discretionary government consumption purchases on private demand. Using a panel of 132 countries from 1960 to 2008, we find that while discretionary changes in government consumption lead to crowding-in effects in the short run, crowding-out effects take over in the medium run. In addition, we also find that both short-term crowding-in and mediumterm crowding out effects are amplified once we control for periods of crisis.

Fiscal Policy Responsiveness, Persistence and Discretion

This paper analyzes the different characteristics of fiscal policy using a two-step estimation procedure. First, we decompose both government spending and government revenue into three components: responsiveness, persistence and discretion. Second, we assess the determinants of these characteristics. Using data from 132 countries, our results show that fiscal policy is more persistent than responsive to economic conditions, which implies that the authorities may have less leeway in the short-run notably to curb spending behavior. In addition, countries characterized by greater fiscal persistence have less discretion and responsiveness. Finally, macroeconomic, institutional and geographic va…

A Computational Study on Temperature Variations in MRgFUS Treatments Using PRF Thermometry Techniques and Optical Probes

Structural and metabolic imaging are fundamental for diagnosis, treatment and follow-up in oncology. Beyond the well-established diagnostic imaging applications, ultrasounds are currently emerging in the clinical practice as a noninvasive technology for therapy. Indeed, the sound waves can be used to increase the temperature inside the target solid tumors, leading to apoptosis or necrosis of neoplastic tissues. The Magnetic resonance-guided focused ultrasound surgery (MRgFUS) technology represents a valid application of this ultrasound property, mainly used in oncology and neurology. In this paper

Le martingale: aspetti teorici ed applicativi

This paper offers an overview on the characteristics of martingales. These latter are markovian processes without underlying trend, in which the stochastic variable depends on its ultimate realisation. Some application fields are in studies relative to financial markets, and especially the derivative securities. Drawing from the theoretical and empirical literature, the main mathematical characteristics are presented. In order to transform processes with increasing or decreasing trends into martingales, the Doob-Meyer decomposition and the change of probability measure approaches can be adopted. Finally, four applications are considered with regard to the pricing of futures, call options an…

Global factors, uncertainty, weather conditions and energy prices: On the drivers of the duration of commodity price cycle phases

We investigate the role of global factors in explaining the length of commodity price cycle phases, using a continuous-time Weibull duration model and data for a panel of 33 countries over the period 1980Q1-2015Q4. We find evidence of increasing (constant) positive duration dependence for commodity price booms and busts (normal time spells). Global macroeconomic conditions - in particular, inflation, economic policy uncertainty and monetary policy actions - significantly affect the duration of all commodity price cycle phases. Global environmental conditions also impact the duration of commodity price booms, with a rise in average temperature (rainfall) increasing (reducing) their length. A…

The Fisher Hyphotesis and nominal interest rate decomposition: a structural VAR approach

How does monetary policy respond to the dynamics of the shadow banking sector?

We investigate the response of the central bank to the change in size of non-bank financial intermediaries. Using quarterly data for the U.S. over the period 1946:Q1-2016Q4, we find that when faced with an increase in the asset growth of the securities' brokers and dealers and the shadow banking sector, the monetary authority reacts by raising the short-term nominal interest rate. This response is stronger in the case of sharp variation in the size of the balance sheet of nonbank financial intermediaries. From a policy perspective, our study suggests that an extended version of the original Taylor rule - embedding both price stability and financial stability concerns – provides a good chara…

Is fiscal fatigue a threat to consolidation programmes?

Building on a narrative approach to identify episodes of fiscal consolidation, data for a group of 17 industrial countries over the period 1978-2009 and continuous-time duration models, we find evidence suggesting that the likelihood of a fiscal consolidation ending increases over time, but only for programs that last less than six years. Additionally, fiscal consolidations tend to last longer in non-European than in European countries. Our results emphasize that chronic fiscal imbalances might lead to a vicious austerity cycle, while discipline in the behaviour of fiscal authorities is a means of achieving credible and shorter adjustment measures. Therefore, fiscal fatigue is likely to com…

Can re-regulation of the financial sector strike back public debt?

This paper analyzes the impact of financial sector policy changes on the dynamics of public debt. Using a panel of 89 countries from 1973 to 2005, we find that while the implementation of (large) financial liberalisation policies significantly raises the public debt growth rate, the adoption of financial re-regulation measures leads to a mild reduction of public debt. Looking at the different typologies of financial sector policy changes, we show that stricter banking supervision, privatisations and restrictions to international capital flows contribute to a fast decline of the growth rate of public debt. In contrast, the removal of entry barriers and the elimination of interest rate contro…

Discretionary Fiscal Policies over the Cycle: New Evidence Based on the ESCB Disaggregated Approach

This paper explores how discretionary fiscal policies on the revenue side of the government budget have reacted to economic fluctuations in European Union countries. For this purpose, it uses data on legislated revenue changes and structural indicators provided twice per year by National Central Banks of European Union countries in the ESCB framework for analysing fiscal policy. The analysis is based on the estimation of fiscal policy rules linking these measures of legislated fiscal policy changes to the output gap and other control variables. Then, baseline results are compared with regression estimates where variations of cyclically-adjusted indicators are used as proxy for discretionary…

FISCAL POLICY AND ASSET PRICES

We assess the role played by fiscal policy in explaining the dynamics of asset markets. Using a panel of ten industrialized countries, we show that a positive fiscal shock has a negative impact in both stock and housing prices. However, while stock prices immediately adjust to the shock and the effect of fiscal policy is temporary, housing prices gradually and persistently fall. As a result, the attempts of fiscal policy to mitigate stock price developments may severely de-stabilize housing markets. The empirical findings also point to: (i) a contractionary effect of fiscal policy on output in line with the existence of crowding-out effects; (ii) a weakening of the effectiveness of fiscal p…

Referenceless thermometry using radial basis function interpolation

The Proton Resonance Frequency (PRF) shift provide a method for temperature change measurements during thermotherapy. Conventional PRF thermometry works subtracting one or multiple baseline images. The method leads to artifacts caused by tissue motion and frequency drift. Various works estimating the background phase from each acquired image phase are present in literature. These algorithms are called “referenceless” because they don’t require any subtraction of baseline images for calculating temperature increment. Conventional referenceless methods estimate baseline image by fitting the background phase outside the heated region through a polynomial approach. In this work a background pha…

How does fiscal consolidation impact on income inequality?

In this paper, we assess the impact of fiscal consolidation on income inequality. Using a panel of 18 industrialized countries from 1978 to 2009, we find that income inequality significantly rises during periods of fiscal consolidation. In addition, while fiscal policy that is driven by spending cuts seems to be detrimental for income distribution, tax hikes seem to have an equalizing effect. We also show that the size of the fiscal consolidation program (in percentage of GDP) has an impact on income inequality. In particular, when consolidation plans represent a small share of GDP, the income gap widens, suggesting that the burden associated with the effort affects disproportionately house…

Feature Dimensionality Reduction for Mammographic Report Classification

The amount and the variety of available medical data coming from multiple and heterogeneous sources can inhibit analysis, manual interpretation, and use of simple data management applications. In this paper a deep overview of the principal algorithms for dimensionality reduction is carried out; moreover, the most effective techniques are applied on a dataset composed of 4461 mammographic reports is presented. The most useful medical terms are converted and represented using a TF-IDF matrix, in order to enable data mining and retrieval tasks. A series of query have been performed on the raw matrix and on the same matrix after the dimensionality reduction obtained using the most useful techni…

Fiscal consolidation and financial reforms

We use data for a panel of 17 countries over the period 1980-2005 to investigate the impact of fiscal consolidation on the likelihood of financial reforms. We show that fiscal adjustments do not boost the implementation of financial reforms. However, tax-driven fiscal consolidation programs raise the likelihood of banking sector reforms. Moreover, we find that: (i) an increase in the degree of trade openness makes countries less likely to implement financial reforms; (ii) an increase in the interest rate spreads accelerates the path of financial reforms, especially, external capital account reforms; and (iii) an improvement in the quality of political institutions strongly enhances the prob…

Radial Basis Function Interpolation for Referenceless Thermometry Enhancement

MRgFUS (Magnetic Resonance guided Focused UltraSound) is a new and non-invasive technique to treat different diseases in the oncology field, that uses Focused Ultrasound (FUS) to induce necrosis in the lesion. Temperature change measurements during ultrasound thermo-therapies can be performed through magnetic resonance monitoring by using Proton Resonance Frequency (PRF) thermometry. It measures the phase variation resulting from the temperature-dependent changes in resonance frequency by subtracting one phase baseline image from actual phase. Referenceless thermometry aims to re-duce artefacts caused by tissue motion and frequency drift, fitting the back-ground phase outside the heated reg…

ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, CREDIT MARKET CONDITIONS, AND THE HOUSING MARKET

In this paper, we assess the characteristics of the housing market and its main determinants. Using data for 20 industrial countries over the period 1970Q1–2012Q2 and a discrete-time Weibull duration model, we find that the likelihood of the end of a housing boom or a housing bust increases over time. Additionally, we show that the different phases of the housing market cycle are strongly dependent on the economic activity, but credit market conditions are particularly important in the case of housing booms. The empirical findings also indicate that although housing booms have similar lengths in European and non-European countries, housing busts are typically shorter in European countries. …

Can Fiscal Policy Stimulus Boost Economic Recovery?

We assess the role played by fiscal policy in explaining the dynamics of asset markets. Using a panel of ten industrialized countries, we show that a positive fiscal shock has a negative impact in both stock and housing prices. However, while stock prices immediately adjust to the shock and the effect of fiscal policy is temporary, housing prices gradually and persistently fall. Consequently, the attempts of fiscal policy to mitigate stock price developments (e.g. via taxes on capital gains) may severely de-stabilize housing markets. The empirical findings also point to significant fiscal multiplier effects in the context of severe housing busts, which gives rise to the importance of the im…

Interest rate gaps in an uncertain global context: why "too" low (high) for "so" long?

We study the behaviour of real interest rate gaps-i.e. periods of real interest rates above (below) the natural interest rate-and link their length with a set of key observable determinants. Using quarterly data for 13 OECD countries over (close to) the last 60 years, we find that global risk-taking, CPI inflation, (un)conventional monetary policy, and income redistribution crucially shape the duration of both events. However, while labour-related supply-side factors appear to affect the length of positive interest rate gaps, the adoption of an inflation targeting regime and the current account balance seem to explain the duration of negative interest rate gaps. Our results suggest that the…

Expectations and the term premium as time varying leading indicators of US economic activity

This paper investigates the growth predictive properties of the expectation-related and term premium components of the US term spread. Results suggest that although the predictive power of two components has greater predictive power compared to the simple spread, it has a time-varying nature. The expectations-related term is positive and statistically significant up to the end of the 80s becoming insignificant afterwards. The term-premium estimates are positive and significant for a brief period in the 70s, turn insignificant after the 80s, except in short intervals at the beginning of the 90s and the 2000s, when they turn negative.

National fiscal consolidations and regional inequality in Europe

Using annual data for 13 European countries over the period 1980-2008, we assess the impact of national fiscal consolidations on the income inequality of European regions. Regional dispersion increases in the outcome of consolidation episodes, particularly, when packages are more severe and implemented through spending cuts rather than tax rises. From a policy perspective, these findings suggest that fiscal consolidations driven by reductions in government spending can exacerbate regional disparities and may ultimately counteract the European policy efforts to promote territorial cohesion. Our results are robust to alternative inequality measures, the occurrence of crisis episodes and the e…

Can fiscal policy stimulus boost economic recovery

We assess the role played by fiscal policy in explaining the dynamics of asset markets. Using a panel of ten industrialized countries, we show that a positive fiscal shock has a negative impact in both stock and housing prices. However, while stock prices immediately adjust to the shock and the effect of fiscal policy is temporary, housing prices gradually and persistently fall. Consequently, the attempts of fiscal policy to mitigate stock price developments (e.g. via taxes on capital gains) may severely de-stabilize housing markets. The empirical findings also point to significant fiscal multiplier effects in the context of severe housing busts, which gives rise to the importance of the im…

Fiscal policy discretion, private spending and crises episodes

In this paper, we assess the impact of fiscal policy discretion on economic activity in the short and medium-term. Using a panel of 132 countries from 1960 to 2008, we find that fiscal policy discretion provides a net stimulus to the economy in the short-run and crowding-in effects are amplified once crisis episodes are controlled for– in particular, banking crises - giving a great scope for fiscal policy stimulus packages. However, crowding-out effects take over in the long-run – especially, in the case of debt crises -, in line with the concerns about long-term debt sustainability.