Search results for " forecast"
showing 10 items of 220 documents
Validation of a mechanistic model for predicting fruit scab infection on different loquat cultivars
2017
[EN] Scab, caused by Fusicladium eriobotryae, is the main disease affecting loquat (Eriobotrya japonica) in the Mediterranean basin. A mechanistic epidemiological model developed in Spain to predict infection of loquat fruit by conidia was assessed in the main loquat cultivated area of Italy (Sicily). A 3-year study (2014-2016) was carried out in an experimental orchard on three loquat cultivars: Algerie, Peluche and San Filipparo. For each cultivar, output of the model was compared with observed scab development on fruits. The scab epidemics observed were different in different years and cultivars, representing a suitable data set for model validation. The model correctly predicted loquat …
Impact of Noah-LSM Parameterizations on WRF Mesoscale Simulations: Case Study of Prevailing Summer Atmospheric Conditions over a Typical Semi-Arid Re…
2021
The current study evaluates the ability of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to forecast surface energy fluxes over a region in Eastern Spain. Focusing on the sensitivity of the model to Land Surface Model (LSM) parameterizations, we compare the simulations provided by the original Noah LSM and the Noah LSM with multiple physics options (Noah-MP). Furthermore, we assess the WRF sensitivity to different Noah-MP physics schemes, namely the calculation of canopy stomatal resistance (OPT_CRS), the soil moisture factor for stomatal resistance (OPT_BTR), and the surface layer drag coefficient (OPT_SFC). It has been found that these physics options strongly affect the energy partiti…
Co-citation, bibliographic coupling and leading authors, institutions and countries in the 50 years of Technological Forecasting and Social Change
2021
[EN] Technological Forecasting and Social Change (TF&SC) is a leading international journal that publishes major advances related to technological forecasting and future studies. The journal was launched in 1969 and in 2019 celebrated its 50th anniversary. To celebrate 50 years of outstanding contributions, this study presents a bibliometric analysis of TF&SC publications and patterns of citations within TF&SC in terms of authors, institutions and countries. The analysis relies on the Web of Science Core Collection database for bibliographic content and Visualization of Similarities viewer software for mapping of bibliometric data. Our analysis identifies leading authors, universities and c…
An approach to day ahead forecasting of solar irradiance with an application to energy gain in solar thermal collectors
2014
Masteroppgave i fornybar energi ENE 500 Universitetet i Agder 2014 Today, for the management of energy supply systems forecast information on load and theproduction of meteorology dependent (wind, solar, hydro) generation is ever rising. Solarirradiance forecasting is given a unique priority as it spans over major applications such asmanagement of grids with a high share of photovoltaic generation and thermal power supplysystems relying on solar heat generation. This thesis will address the day ahead prediction of thelocal irradiances intended to be applied for the management of solar assistant systems for heat andhot water supply. The forecast method presented here is based on the statisti…
Probabilistic Forecast for Northern New Zealand Seismic Process Based on a Forward Predictive Kernel Estimator
2011
In seismology predictive properties of the estimated intensity function are often pursued. For this purpose, we propose an estimation procedure in time, longitude, latitude and depth domains, based on the subsequent increments of likelihood obtained adding an observation one at a time. On the basis of this estimation approach a forecast of earthquakes of a given area of Northern New Zealand is provided, assuming that future earthquakes activity may be based on the smoothing of past earthquakes.
Global warming and tourism: chronicles of apocalypse?
2012
PurposeGlobal warming is a huge challenge faced by the mankind in the twenty‐first century and beyond. The paradox of ecology lies in the pervasive attitude of lay people who overtly condemn pollution but do not alter their individual practices. Unfortunately, the scientific community has still not reached unanimous conclusions about the causes or impacts of global warming. To close this gap, the present paper aims to stimulate discussion in two main senses: the relationship between industry and global warming; and the role of tourism in the coming decades.Design/methodology/approachBased on reading and criticism of many works, this paper provides a conceptual framework for readers to under…
Knowing is half the battle: Seasonal forecasts, adaptive cropping systems, and the mediating role of private markets in Zambia
2019
Abstract This paper examines how smallholders living in regions where a drought is forecasted adapt their farm practices in response to receiving seasonal forecast information. The article draws on a unique longitudinal dataset in Zambia, which collected information from farm households before and after a significant drought caused by the 2015/2016 El-Nino Southern Oscillation. It finds that farmers residing in areas forecasted to be drought-affected and receiving seasonal forecast information are significantly more likely to integrate drought tolerant crops into their cropping systems compared to similar households not receiving this information. Moreover, the probability that a farmer imp…
Model Based Monte Carlo Pricing of Energy and Temperature Quanto Options
2010
Weather derivatives have become very popular tools in weather risk management in recent years. One of the elements supporting their diffusion has been the increase in volatility observed on many energy markets. Among the several available contracts, Quanto options are now becoming very popular for a simple reason: they take into account the strong correlation between energy consumption and certain weather conditions, so enabling price and weather risk to be controlled at the same time. These products are more efficient and, in many cases, significantly cheaper than simpler plain vanilla options. Unfortunately, the specific features of energy and weather time series do not enable the use of …
Forecasting industry sector default rates through dynamic factor models
2008
In this paper we use a reduced-form model for the analysis of portfolio credit risk. For this purpose, we fit a dynamic factor model to a large data set of default rate proxies and macro-variables for Italy. Multiple step ahead density and probability forecasts are obtained by employing both the direct and indirect methods of prediction together with stochastic simulation of the dynamic factor model. We first find that the direct method is the best performer regarding the out-of-sample projection of financial distressful events. In a second stage of the analysis, we find that reducedform portfolio credit risk measures obtained through the dynamic factor model are lower than those correspond…
Economic value, competition and financial distress in the european banking system
2012
Abstract In this paper we examine the impact of a large number of factors at the bank level (liquidity and credit risks, asset size, income diversification and market power), at the industry level (banking concentration) and macro-level (real GDP growth) on bank financial distress using an unbalanced panel of 308 European commercial banks between 1996 and 2009. The observations falling below a given threshold of the empirical distribution of the Shareholder Value Ratio proxy bank financial distress. We employ a panel probit regression and, given the presence of overlapping data giving rise to residual autocorrelation, we use the Bertschek and Lechner (1998) robust estimator of the covarianc…