Search results for "scenario"
showing 10 items of 158 documents
A parsimonious model for generating arbitrage-free scenario trees
2016
Simulation models of economic, financial and business risk factors are widely used to assess risks and support decision-making. Extensive literature on scenario generation methods aims at describing some underlying stochastic processes with the least number of scenarios to overcome the ‘curse of dimensionality’. There is, however, an important requirement that is usually overlooked when one departs from the application domain of security pricing: the no-arbitrage condition. We formulate a moment matching model to generate multi-factor scenario trees for stochastic optimization satisfying no-arbitrage restrictions with a minimal number of scenarios and without any distributional assumptions.…
Future Projection of precipitation changes in the Júcar and Segura River Basins (Iberian Peninsula) by CMIP5 GCMs Local Downscaling
2021
The basins of the Júcar and Segura rivers, on the Mediterranean coast of the Iberian Peninsula, present a special water problem and are of particular interest regarding climate change. These basins are very vulnerable to a possible scenario of decreasing water resources. Recent studies on historic rainfall since 1955 have indicated an ongoing loss of precipitation in their headwaters, especially in the case of the Júcar river. The aim of the present study is to perform climate projections for the precipitation variable for several future periods (2021–2040, 2051–2070, 2081–2100) and emission scenarios (RCPs 4.5, 8.5) within the Júcar and Segura River Basin authorities. For this purpose, a s…
Traffic induced air pollution modeling: Scenario analysis for air quality management in street canyon
2019
This study was supported by the Riga City research project DMV-17-60-lī-03.02.2017. The authors wish to thank the Riga City Council and Latvian Environment, Geology and Meteorology Centre for data used in this study.
Millennials. La nuova scena della grafica italiana
2015
L’idea di Millennials è nata, si è sviluppata e articolata, strutturandosi in modo ben più complesso da quelle che erano le istanze iniziali, intorno a una necessità: fotografare la scena della grafica italiana degli anni più recenti, focalizzandosi sulle produzioni di autori nati dopo il 1980. Il discrimine temporale nasce dalla constatazione di un cambio di passo, di una trasformazione radicale dovuta a più fattori: l’evoluzione tecnologica (è questa la prima generazione completamente digitalizzata), la crisi economica, che ha necessariamente imposto nuove modalità di produzione e di autorappresentazione, i percorsi formativi, strutturati da corsi di studi rivolti all’ambito disciplinare …
Modeling software integration scenarios for telecommunications operations software vendors
2007
- Telecom operators deploy a vast number of software systems to support their operations. Vendors of these systems often integrate such software in their products in order to enable innovations, minimize the customer's integration efforts, etc. Different integration scenarios can be envisioned, and the issue of identifying more beneficial scenarios is of a great importance to the vendors. This paper focuses on analyzing different integration scenarios in the context of telecommunications operations software. For each scenario, the overall modularity of the set of software systems is evaluated, and the expected benefits of the scenario are modeled in terms of the modularity gain it provides.…
Visitor arrivals forecasts amid COVID-19: A perspective from the Africa team
2021
Abstract COVID-19 disrupted international tourism worldwide, subsequently presenting forecasters with a challenging conundrum. In this competition, we predict international arrivals for 20 destinations in two phases: (i) Ex post forecasts pre-COVID; (ii) Ex ante forecasts during and after the pandemic up to end 2021. Our results show that univariate combined with cross-sectional hierarchical forecasting techniques (THieF-ETS) outperform multivariate models pre-COVID. Scenarios were developed based on judgemental adjustment of the THieF-ETS baseline forecasts. Analysts provided a regional view on the most likely path to normal, based on country-specific regulations, macroeconomic conditions,…
Transition to sustainability: Italian scenarios towards a low-carbon economy
2014
This paper analyzes different policies that may promote the transition to sustainability, with a particular focus on the energy sector. We present a dynamic simulation model where three different strategies for sustainability are identified: reduction in GHG emissions, improvements in energy efficiency and the development of the renewable energy sector. Our aim is to evaluate the dynamics that those strategies may produce in the economy, looking at different performance indicators: rate of growth, unemployment, fiscal position, GHG emission, and transition to renewable energy sources. © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2014.
Cultural institutions as agents of urban and community regeneration in the (post-)pandemic city. The case of the «Laboratorio Zen Insieme» in Palermo
2022
Although all cities in the world have been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, its impacts on the territories, yet to be understood, are unevenly distributed, revealing extremely varied imbalances depending on the places. However, it is clear that the virus and its variants have aggravated pre-existing socio-spatial inequalities, creating new ones and bringing attention back to those implications between space, planning, public health and citizenship that are at the origins of contemporary urbanism. In a reference framework in which the crisis is globalized but unequal and in the absence of a welfare system capable of responding to the urgencies of the most marginalized social contexts and g…
The taint of torture and the brazilian legal system
2019
In Brazil, the practice of torture intertwines deeply with its own history. The literature on the subject has had a greater intensification on its registers during the Dictatorial Regime (1964 to 1985). In spite of the Brazilian Constitution of 1988, Brazil only makes efforts to investigate the crimes of torture of this period to comply with the provisions of the United Nations in 2011. Within this scenario, the NationalTruth Commission (Law 12.528, of November 2011) was created with the purpose of clarifying the facts and circumstances of cases concerning human rights violations, as well as the Law on Access to Information (Law 12.527 of November 2011), which have regulated the constitutio…
Reheating the Standard Model from a hidden sector
2016
We consider a scenario where the inflaton decays to a hidden sector thermally decoupled from the visible Standard Model sector. A tiny portal coupling between the hidden and the visible sectors later heats the visible sector so that the Standard Model degrees of freedom come to dominate the energy density of the Universe before Big Bang Nucleosynthesis. We find that this scenario is viable, although obtaining the correct dark matter abundance and retaining successful Big Bang Nucleosynthesis is not obvious. We also show that the isocurvature perturbations constituted by a primordial Higgs condensate are not problematic for the viability of the scenario.