0000000001308475
AUTHOR
Paola Michelozzi
Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures from 2000 to 2019: a three-stage modelling study
Background: Exposure to cold or hot temperatures is associated with premature deaths. We aimed to evaluate the global, regional, and national mortality burden associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures. Methods: In this modelling study, we collected time-series data on mortality and ambient temperatures from 750 locations in 43 countries and five meta-predictors at a grid size of 0·5° × 0·5° across the globe. A three-stage analysis strategy was used. First, the temperature–mortality association was fitted for each location by use of a time-series regression. Second, a multivariate meta-regression model was built between location-specific estimates and meta-predictors. Finally, the gri…
SETIL: Italian multicentric epidemiological case–control study on risk factors for childhood leukaemia, non hodgkin lymphoma and neuroblastoma: study population and prevalence of risk factors in Italy
Background Aetiology of childhood leukaemia and childhood neoplasm is poorly understood. Information on the prevalence of risk factors in the childhood population is limited. SETIL is a population based case–control study on childhood leukaemia, conducted with two companion studies on non-Hodgkin Lymphoma (NHL) and neuroblastoma. The study relies on questionnaire interviews and 50 Hz magnetic field (ELF-MF) indoor measurements. This paper discusses the SETIL study design and includes descriptive information. Methods The study was carried out in 14 Italian regions (78.3% of Italian population aged 0–10). It included leukaemia, NHL and neuroblastoma cases incident in 0–10 year olds in 1998–20…
Industrial odour pollution and human health: a systematic review and meta-analysis.
Abstract Objective To conduct a systematic review to evaluate the association between residential or occupational short- and long–term exposure to odour pollution from industrial sources and the health status of the exposed population. Methods The searches were conducted in Medline, EMBASE and Scopus in April 2021. Exposure to an environmental odour from industrial sources in population resident near the source or in workers was considered. We considered outcomes for which there was a biological plausibility, such as wheezing and asthma, cough, headache, nausea and vomiting (primary outcomes). We also included stress-related symptoms and novel outcomes (e.g. mood states). Risk of bias was e…
How urban characteristics affect vulnerability to heat and cold: a multi-country analysis
Background The health burden associated with temperature is expected to increase due to a warming climate. Populations living in cities are likely to be particularly at risk, but the role of urban characteristics in modifying the direct effects of temperature on health is still unclear. In this contribution, we used a multi-country dataset to study effect modification of temperature–mortality relationships by a range of city-specific indicators. Methods We collected ambient temperature and mortality daily time-series data for 340 cities in 22 countries, in periods between 1985 and 2014. Standardized measures of demographic, socio-economic, infrastructural and environmental indicators were d…
Quantifying Excess Deaths Related to Heatwaves under Climate Change Scenarios: A multicountry time series modelling study
Background: Heatwaves are a critical public health problem. There will be an increase in the frequency and severity of heatwaves under changing climate. However, evidence about the impacts of climate change on heatwave-related mortality at a global scale is limited. Methods and findings: We collected historical daily time series of mean temperature and mortality for all causes or nonexternal causes, in periods ranging from January 1, 1984, to December 31, 2015, in 412 communities within 20 countries/regions. We estimated heatwave–mortality associations through a two-stage time series design. Current and future daily mean temperature series were projected under four scenarios of greenhouse g…
Changes in the Effect of Heat on Mortality in the Last 20 Years in Nine European Cities. Results from the PHASE Project
The European project PHASE aims to evaluate patterns of change in the temperature–mortality relationship and in the number of deaths attributable to heat in nine European cities in two periods, before and after summer 2003 (1996–2002 and 2004–2010). We performed age-specific Poisson regression models separately in the two periods, controlling for seasonality, air pollution and time trends. Distributed lag non-linear models were used to estimate the Relative Risks of daily mortality for increases in mean temperature from the 75th to 99th percentile of the summer distribution for each city. In the recent period, a reduction in the mortality risk associated to heat was observed only in Athens,…
Road Traffic Pollution and Childhood Leukemia: A Nationwide Case-control Study in Italy
Background The association of childhood leukemia with traffic pollution was considered in a number of studies from 1989 onwards, with results not entirely consistent and little information regarding subtypes. Aim of the study We used the data of the Italian SETIL case-control on childhood leukemia to explore the risk by leukemia subtypes associated to exposure to vehicular traffic. Methods We included in the analyses 648 cases of childhood leukemia (565 Acute lymphoblastic–ALL and 80 Acute non lymphoblastic-AnLL) and 980 controls. Information on traffic exposure was collected from questionnaire interviews and from the geocoding of house addresses, for all periods of life of the children. Re…
Temperature in summer and children's hospitalizations in two Mediterranean cities
Abstract Background and objective Children are potentially vulnerable to hot ambient temperature. However, the evidence on heat-related children's morbidity is still scarce. Our aim was to examine the association between temperatures in summer (May to September) and children's hospitalizations in two Mediterranean cities, Rome and Valencia, during the period 2001–2010. Methods Quasi-Poisson generalised additive models and distributed lag non-linear models were combined to study the relationship between daily mean temperature and hospital admissions for all natural, respiratory and gastrointestinal diseases in children under 15 years of age. Associations were summarised as the percentage of …
Evaluation of the ERA5 reanalysis-based Universal Thermal Climate Index on mortality data in Europe
Air temperature has been the most commonly used exposure metric in assessing relationships between thermal stress and mortality. Lack of the high-quality meteorological station data necessary to adequately characterize the thermal environment has been one of the main limitations for the use of more complex thermal indices. Global climate reanalyses may provide an ideal platform to overcome this limitation and define complex heat and cold stress conditions anywhere in the world. In this study, we explored the potential of the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) based on ERA5 – the latest global climate reanalysis from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) – as a h…
Synergistic Effects of Ambient Temperature and Air Pollution on Health in Europe: Results from the PHASE Project
We studied the potential synergy between air pollution and meteorology and their impact on mortality in nine European cities with data from 2004 to 2010. We used daily series of Apparent Temperature (AT), measurements of particulate matter (PM10), ozone (O3), and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and total non-accidental, cardiovascular, and respiratory deaths. We applied Poisson regression for city-specific analysis and random effects meta-analysis to combine city-specific results, separately for the warm and cold seasons. In the warm season, the percentage increase in all deaths from natural causes per °
More nature in the city
According to projects and practices that the Italian botanists and ecologists are carrying out for bringing “more nature in the city”, new insights for a factual integration between ecological perspectives and more consolidated aesthetic and agronomic approaches to the sustainable planning and management of urban green areas are provided.
A time series study on the effects of heat on mortality and evaluation of heterogeneity into European and Eastern-Southern Mediterranean cities: results of EU CIRCE project
Background: The Mediterranean region is particularly vulnerable to the effect of summer temperature. Within the CIRCE project this time-series study aims to quantify for the first time the effect of summer temperature in Eastern-Southern Mediterranean cities and compared it with European cities around the Mediterranean basin, evaluating city characteristics that explain between-city heterogeneity. Methods: The city-specific effect of maximum apparent temperature (Tappmax) was assessed by Generalized Estimation Equations, assuming a linear threshold model. Then, city-specific estimates were included in a random effect meta-regression analysis to investigate the effect modification by several…
Predicted temperature-increase-induced global health burden and its regional variability
An increase in the global health burden of temperature was projected for 459 locations in 28 countries worldwide under four representative concentration pathway scenarios until 2099. We determined that the amount of temperature increase for each 100 ppm increase in global CO2 concentrations is nearly constant, regardless of climate scenarios. The overall average temperature increase during 2010–2099 is largest in Canada (1.16 °C/100 ppm) and Finland (1.14 °C/100 ppm), while it is smallest in Ireland (0.62 °C/100 ppm) and Argentina (0.63 °C/100 ppm). In addition, for each 1 °C temperature increase, the amount of excess mortality is increased largely in tropical countries such as Vietnam (10.…
Erratum: “The Role of Humidity in Associations of High Temperature with Mortality: A Multicountry, Multicity Study”
There is strong experimental evidence that physiologic stress from high temperatures is greater if humidity is higher. However, heat indices developed to allow for this have not consistently predicted mortality better than dry-bulb temperature.We aimed to clarify the potential contribution of humidity an addition to temperature in predicting daily mortality in summer by using a large multicountry dataset.In 445 cities in 24 countries, we fit a time-series regression model for summer mortality with a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) for temperature (up to lag 3) and supplemented this with a range of terms for relative humidity (RH) and its interaction with temperature. City-specific as…
The role of humidity in associations of high temperature with mortality: A multicountry, multicity study
BACKGROUND: There is strong experimental evidence that physiologic stress from high temperatures is greater if humidity is higher. However, heat indices developed to allow for this have not consistently predicted mortality better than dry-bulb temperature. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to clarify the potential contribution of humidity an addition to temperature in predicting daily mortality in summer by using a large multicountry dataset. METHODS: In 445 cities in 24 countries, we fit a time-series regression model for summer mortality with a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) for temperature (up to lag 3) and supplemented this with a range of terms for relative humidity (RH) and its interaction…
The effect of residential urban greenness on allergic respiratory diseases in youth: A narrative review
Abstract Background Environmental exposures across the life course may be a contributor to the increased worldwide prevalence of respiratory and allergic diseases occurring in the last decades. Asthma and rhinoconjunctivitis especially contribute to the global burden of disease. Greenness has been suggested to have beneficial effects in terms of reduction of occurrence of allergic respiratory diseases. However, the available evidence of a relationship between urban greenness and childhood health outcomes is not yet conclusive. The current review aimed at investigating the current state of evidence, exploring the relationship between children's exposure to residential urban greenness and dev…
Additional file 1 of Industrial odour pollution and human health: a systematic review and meta-analysis
Additional file 1.
CKD NUTRITION, INFLAMMATION AND OXIDATIVE STRESS
Introduction and Aims: Serum p-cresyl sulfate associates with cardiovascular disease in patients at different stages of chronic kidney disease. p-Cresyl sulfate concentrations are determined by intestinal uptake of p-cresol, human metabolism to p-cresyl sulfate and renal clearance. Whether intestinal uptake of p-cresol itself is associated with cardiovascular disease in patients with renal disease has not been studied to date. Methods: We performed a prospective study in patients with chronic kidney disease stage 1-5 (clinicaltrials.gov NCT00441623). Intestinal uptake of p-cresol, under steady state conditions, was estimated from 24h urinary excretion of p-cresyl sulfate. Primary endpoint w…
Projections of temperature-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios.
Background: Climate change can directly affect human health by varying exposure to non-optimal outdoor temperature. However, evidence on this direct impact at a global scale is limited, mainly due to issues in modelling and projecting complex and highly heterogeneous epidemiological relationships across different populations and climates. Methods: We collected observed daily time series of mean temperature and mortality counts for all causes or non-external causes only, in periods ranging from Jan 1, 1984, to Dec 31, 2015, from various locations across the globe through the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network. We estimated temperature–mortality relationships through a tw…
Effects of Heat Waves on Mortality
Heat waves and air pollution are both associated with increased mortality. Their joint effects are less well understood.We explored the role of air pollution in modifying the effects of heat waves on mortality, within the EuroHEAT project. Daily mortality, meteorologic, and air pollution data from nine European cities for the years 1990-2004 were assembled. We defined heat waves by taking both intensity and duration into account. The city-specific effects of heat wave episodes were estimated using generalized estimating equation models, adjusting for potential confounders with and without inclusion of air pollutants (particles, ozone, nitrogen dioxide, sulphur dioxide, carbon monoxide). To …
Temperature-related mortality impacts under and beyond Paris Agreement climate change scenarios.
The Paris Agreement binds all nations to undertake ambitious efforts to combat climate change, with the commitment to hold warming well below 2 degrees C in global mean temperature (GMT), relative to pre-industrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit warming to 1.5 degrees C. The 1.5 degrees C limit constitutes an ambitious goal for which greater evidence on its benefits for health would help guide policy and potentially increase the motivation for action. Here we contribute to this gap with an assessment on the potential health benefits, in terms of reductions in temperature-related mortality, derived from the compliance to the agreed temperature targets, compared to more extreme warmin…
Additional file 2 of Industrial odour pollution and human health: a systematic review and meta-analysis
Additional file 2.
Additional file 3 of Industrial odour pollution and human health: a systematic review and meta-analysis
Additional file 3.