0000000000950800
AUTHOR
Soewarta Kosen
showing 24 related works from this author
Measuring universal health coverage based on an index of effective coverage of health services in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systema…
2020
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Global, regional, and national levels and causes of maternal mortality during 1990-2013: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study…
2014
BACKGROUND: The fifth Millennium Development Goal (MDG 5) established the goal of a 75% reduction in the maternal mortality ratio (MMR; number of maternal deaths per 100,000 livebirths) between 1990 and 2015. We aimed to measure levels and track trends in maternal mortality, the key causes contributing to maternal death, and timing of maternal death with respect to delivery.METHODS: We used robust statistical methods including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) to analyse a database of data for 7065 site-years and estimate the number of maternal deaths from all causes in 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. We estimated the number of pregnancy-related deaths caused by HIV on the basi…
Age–sex differences in the global burden of lower respiratory infections and risk factors, 1990–2019: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study…
2022
Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Background: The global burden of lower respiratory infections (LRIs) and corresponding risk factors in children older than 5 years and adults has not been studied as comprehensively as it has been in children younger than 5 years. We assessed the burden and trends of LRIs and risk factors across all age groups by sex, for 204 countries and territories. Methods: In this analysis of data for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we used clinician-diagnosed pneumonia or bronchiolitis as our case definition for LRIs. We included International Classification of Diseases 9th edition codes 079.6, 466–469, 470.0, 480–4…
Mapping geographical inequalities in oral rehydration therapy coverage in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17
2020
Background: Oral rehydration solution (ORS) is a form of oral rehydration therapy (ORT) for diarrhoea that has the potential to drastically reduce child mortality; yet, according to UNICEF estimates, less than half of children younger than 5 years with diarrhoea in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) received ORS in 2016. A variety of recommended home fluids (RHF) exist as alternative forms of ORT; however, it is unclear whether RHF prevent child mortality. Previous studies have shown considerable variation between countries in ORS and RHF use, but subnational variation is unknown. This study aims to produce high-resolution geospatial estimates of relative and absolute coverage o…
Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study …
2020
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Global, regional, national, and selected subnational levels of stillbirths, neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality, 1980-2015 : a systematic analysi…
2016
BACKGROUND: Established in 2000, Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG4) catalysed extraordinary political, financial, and social commitments to reduce under-5 mortality by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015. At the country level, the pace of progress in improving child survival has varied markedly, highlighting a crucial need to further examine potential drivers of accelerated or slowed decreases in child mortality. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides an analytical framework to comprehensively assess these trends for under-5 mortality, age-specific and cause-specific mortality among children under 5 years, and stillbirths by geography over time. METHODS: Drawing from ana…
The global distribution of lymphatic filariasis, 2000–18:a geospatial analysis
2020
Background Lymphatic filariasis is a neglected tropical disease that can cause permanent disability through disruption of the lymphatic system. This disease is caused by parasitic filarial worms that are transmitted by mosquitos. Mass drug administration (MDA) of antihelmintics is recommended by WHO to eliminate lymphatic filariasis as a public health problem. This study aims to produce the first geospatial estimates of the global prevalence of lymphatic filariasis infection over time, to quantify progress towards elimination, and to identify geographical variation in distribution of infection. Methods A global dataset of georeferenced surveyed locations was used to model annual 2000–18 lym…
Global Mortality From Firearms, 1990-2016
2018
IMPORTANCE: Understanding global variation in firearm mortality rates could guide prevention policies and interventions. OBJECTIVE: To estimate mortality due to firearm injury deaths from 1990 to 2016 in 195 countries and territories. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This study used deidentified aggregated data including 13 812 location-years of vital registration data to generate estimates of levels and rates of death by age-sex-year-location. The proportion of suicides in which a firearm was the lethal means was combined with an estimate of per capita gun ownership in a revised proxy measure used to evaluate the relationship between availability or access to firearms and firearm injury …
Global investments in pandemic preparedness and COVID-19: development assistance and domestic spending on health between 1990 and 2026
2023
Background The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted gaps in health surveillance systems, disease prevention, and treatment globally. Among the many factors that might have led to these gaps is the issue of the financing of national health systems, especially in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), as well as a robust global system for pandemic preparedness. We aimed to provide a comparative assessment of global health spending at the onset of the pandemic; characterise the amount of development assistance for pandemic preparedness and response disbursed in the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic; and examine expectations for future health spending and put into context the expected ne…
Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 306 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 188 countr…
2015
Summary Background The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) aims to bring together all available epidemiological data using a coherent measurement framework, standardised estimation methods, and transparent data sources to enable comparisons of health loss over time and across causes, age–sex groups, and countries. The GBD can be used to generate summary measures such as disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) that make possible comparative assessments of broad epidemiological patterns across countries and time. These summary measures can also be used to quantify the component of variation in epidemiology that is related to sociodemographic develo…
Mapping 123 million neonatal, infant and child deaths between 2000 and 2017
2019
Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2—to end preventable child deaths by 2030—we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000–2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low- and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained ra…
Global, regional, and national levels of maternal mortality, 1990–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
2016
BACKGROUND: In transitioning from the Millennium Development Goal to the Sustainable Development Goal era, it is imperative to comprehensively assess progress toward reducing maternal mortality to identify areas of success, remaining challenges, and frame policy discussions. We aimed to quantify maternal mortality throughout the world by underlying cause and age from 1990 to 2015.METHODS: We estimated maternal mortality at the global, regional, and national levels from 1990 to 2015 for ages 10-54 years by systematically compiling and processing all available data sources from 186 of 195 countries and territories, 11 of which were analysed at the subnational level. We quantified eight underl…
Health sector spending and spending on HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, and malaria, and development assistance for health: progress towards Sustainable Devel…
2020
BACKGROUND: Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 3 aims to "ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages". While a substantial effort has been made to quantify progress towards SDG3, less research has focused on tracking spending towards this goal. We used spending estimates to measure progress in financing the priority areas of SDG3, examine the association between outcomes and financing, and identify where resource gains are most needed to achieve the SDG3 indicators for which data are available. METHODS: We estimated domestic health spending, disaggregated by source (government, out-of-pocket, and prepaid private) from 1995 to 2017 for 195 countries and territories. For …
Mapping geographical inequalities in access to drinking water and sanitation facilities in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17.
2020
Background: Universal access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities is an essential human right, recognised in the Sustainable Development Goals as crucial for preventing disease and improving human wellbeing. Comprehensive, high-resolution estimates are important to inform progress towards achieving this goal. We aimed to produce highresolution geospatial estimates of access to drinking water and sanitation facilities. Methods: We used a Bayesian geostatistical model and data from 600 sources across more than 88 low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) to estimate access to drinking water and sanitation facilities on continuous continent-wide surfaces from 2000 to 2017, and…
Health effects of overweight and obesity in 195 countries over 25 years
2017
Source at: http://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa1614362 Background: Although the rising pandemic of obesity has received major attention in many countries, the effects of this attention on trends and the disease burden of obesity remain uncertain. Methods: We analyzed data from 68.5 million persons to assess the trends in the prevalence of overweight and obesity among children and adults between 1980 and 2015. Using the Global Burden of Disease study data and methods, we also quantified the burden of disease related to high body-mass index (BMI), according to age, sex, cause, and BMI in 195 countries between 1990 and 2015. Restults: In 2015, a total of 107.7 million children and 603.7 million adult…
Predicting the environmental suitability for onchocerciasis in Africa as an aid to elimination planning
2021
Recent evidence suggests that, in some foci, elimination of onchocerciasis from Africa may be feasible with mass drug administration (MDA) of ivermectin. To achieve continental elimination of transmission, mapping surveys will need to be conducted across all implementation units (IUs) for which endemicity status is currently unknown. Using boosted regression tree models with optimised hyperparameter selection, we estimated environmental suitability for onchocerciasis at the 5 × 5-km resolution across Africa. In order to classify IUs that include locations that are environmentally suitable, we used receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis to identify an optimal threshold for suitabil…
Mapping disparities in education across low- and middle-income countries
2020
Educational attainment is an important social determinant of maternal, newborn, and child health1–3. As a tool for promoting gender equity, it has gained increasing traction in popular media, international aid strategies, and global agenda-setting4–6. The global health agenda is increasingly focused on evidence of precision public health, which illustrates the subnational distribution of disease and illness7,8; however, an agenda focused on future equity must integrate comparable evidence on the distribution of social determinants of health9–11. Here we expand on the available precision SDG evidence by estimating the subnational distribution of educational attainment, including the proporti…
Global mortality associated with 33 bacterial pathogens in 2019
2022
Background: Reducing the burden of death due to infection is an urgent global public health priority. Previous studies have estimated the number of deaths associated with drug-resistant infections and sepsis and found that infections remain a leading cause of death globally. Understanding the global burden of common bacterial pathogens (both susceptible and resistant to antimicrobials) is essential to identify the greatest threats to public health. To our knowledge, this is the first study to present global comprehensive estimates of deaths associated with 33 bacterial pathogens across 11 major infectious syndromes. Methods: We estimated deaths associated with 33 bacterial genera or species…
Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risk…
2015
Summary Background The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Methods Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2…
Additional file 3 of Mapping age- and sex-specific HIV prevalence in adults in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000–2018
2023
Additional file 3: Supplemental figures.Figure S1. Prevalence of male circumcision. Figure S2. Prevalence of signs and symptoms of sexually transmitted infections. Figure S3. Prevalence of marriage or living as married. Figure S4. Prevalence of partner living elsewhere among females. Figure S5. Prevalence of condom use during most recent sexual encounter. Figure S6. Prevalence of sexual activity among young females. Figure S7. Prevalence of multiple partners among males in the past year. Figure S8. Prevalence of multiple partners among females in the past year. Figure S9. HIV prevalence predictions from the boosted regression tree model. Figure S10. HIV prevalence predictions from the gener…
Estimates, trends, and drivers of the global burden of type 2 diabetes attributable to PM2·5 air pollution, 1990–2019: an analysis of data from the G…
2022
Background: Experimental and epidemiological studies indicate an association between exposure to particulate matter (PM) air pollution and increased risk of type 2 diabetes. In view of the high and increasing prevalence of diabetes, we aimed to quantify the burden of type 2 diabetes attributable to PM2·5 originating from ambient and household air pollution.Methods: We systematically compiled all relevant cohort and case-control studies assessing the effect of exposure to household and ambient fine particulate matter (PM2·5) air pollution on type 2 diabetes incidence and mortality. We derived an exposure–response curve from the extracted relative risk estimates using the MR-BRT (meta-regress…
Additional file 1 of Mapping age- and sex-specific HIV prevalence in adults in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000–2018
2023
Additional file 1: Supplemental information.1. Compliance with the Guidlines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER). 2. HIV data sources and data processing. 3. Covariate and auxiliary data. 4. Statistical model. 5. References.
Additional file 2 of Mapping age- and sex-specific HIV prevalence in adults in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000–2018
2023
Additional file 2: Supplemental tables.Table S1. HIV seroprevalence survey data. Table S2. ANC sentinel surveillance data. Table S3. HIV and covariates surveys excluded from this analysis. Table S4. Sources for pre-existing covariates. Table S5. HIV covariate survey data. Table S6. Fitted model parameters.
Additional file 4 of Mapping age- and sex-specific HIV prevalence in adults in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000–2018
2023
Additional file 4: Supplemental results.1. README. 2. Prevalence range across districts. 3. Prevalence range between sexes. 4. Prevalence range between ages. 5. Age-specific district ranges.